The global economy
全球经济
The worldwide wobble
摇晃的世界
The world economy will have a bumpy 2014. But the recovery is not, yet, at risk
2014年的全球经济注定不会一帆风顺，但复苏是肯定的。
Feb 8th 2014 | From the print edition
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1FOR much of 2013 the world's big stockmarkets had a magical quality about them. They soared upwards—America's S&P 500 index ro by 30% last year, and Japan's Nikkei by 57%—buoyed by monetary stimulus and growing optimism about global growth. Over the past month, the magic has abruptly worn off. More than $3 trillion has been wiped off global share prices since the start of January. The S&P 500 is down by almost 5%, the Ni
kkei by 14% and the MSCI emerging-market index by almost 9%.
在2013年的大部分时间里，受货币刺激和对全球增长日渐乐观的提振，各大股市着了魔似地疯涨。截至年底，标普500涨了30%梵文翻译器，日经指数涨了57%。不过，进入今年后，魔力突然褪去。在刚刚过去的一个月中，标普500跌近5%，日经指数跌14%，摩根士丹利新兴市场指数跌了将近9%。总计算来，全球股市共蒸发了3万多亿美元。
2That investors should lock in some profits after such a remarkable surge is hardly surprising. American share prices, in particular, were beginning to look too high: the S&P finished 2013 at a multiple of 25 times ten-year earnings, well above the historical average of 16. A few bits of poor economic news of late are scarcely grounds for panic. It is hard to e a compelling economic reason why one unexpectedly weak report on American manufacturing, for instance, should push Japan's Nikkei down by more than 4% in a day. Far easier to explain the market gyrations as a necessary correction.
投资者在如此疯涨之后锁定部分利润是应该的。以股价已经显得偏高的美股为例，标普500的10年期利润平均市盈率在2013年年底的时候已经达到25倍，远远超过了16倍的历史平均值。近期不佳的经济数据不应成为恐慌之理由。为美国制造业意外疲软为何会推动日经指数在一个交易日内跌超lost4%找到令人信服的经济解释是困难的，若将市场之动荡视为必要的调整就容易多了。
From supercal…to fragilistic
从牛气冲天到弱不禁风
3Prices always jump around, but in the end they are determined by the underlying economy. Here it would be a mistake to be too sanguine. Economists are notoriously bad at predicting sudden turning-points in global growth. Even if it goes no further, the dip in ast prices has hurt this year's growth prospects, particularly in emerging markets, where credit conditions are tighter and foreign capital less abundant. Tellingly, commodity prices are slipping too. The price of iron ore fell by more than 8% in January.
价格总是上蹿下跳的，但归根结底还得由作为其支撑的经济来决定。对此，太过乐观也不好。经济学家不善于预测增长的拐点已经为人所诟病。就算是资产价格不再下跌，现有的走弱已经伤及到了今年的增长前景，尤其是对正在收紧信贷条件和外国资本不再那么充裕的新兴经济体而言，更是如此。引人注目的是，大宗商品的价格也在下滑。铁矿石的价格在1月份的跌幅超过了8%。
4 On balance, however, this newspaper's asssment of the evidence to date is that investors' gloom is overdone. A handful of disappointing numbers does not mean that America's underlying recovery is stalling. China's economy is slowing, but the odds of a sudden slump remain low. Although other emerging markets will indeed grow more slowly in 2014, they are not heading for a broad collap. And the odds are rising that monetary policy in both Europe and Japan is about to be ead further. Global growth will still probably exceed last year's pace of 3% (on a purchasing-power parity basis). For now, this looks more like a wobble than a tumble.
抽噎
对迄今为止的数据进行综合考虑之后，本报认为，投资者的反应过于悲观了。少数几个数据不佳并不能说明美国的基本面复苏正在慢下来。中国经济正在减速，但突然衰退的几率仍旧不大。其他新兴经济体的增长确实还会在年内再度减速，但不至于走向大崩溃。欧洲和日本再度放松货币政策的几率也在增大。总之，今年的全球经济增速仍有可能会超过去年的3%（以购买力平价计算）。当前之动荡更像是摇摆，而不是崩盘。
5The outlook for America's economy is by far the most important reason for this view. Since the United States is driving the global recovery, sustained weakness there would mean that prospects for the world economy were grim. But that does not em likely. January's spate of feeble statistics—from weak manufacturing orders to low car sales—can be explained, in part, by the weather. America has had an unusually bitter winter, with punishing snowfall and frigid temperatures. This has disrupted economic activity. It suggests that all the figures for January, including the all-important employment figures, which were due to be relead on February 7th after The Economist went to press, shoul
d be taken with a truckload of salt.
支撑这种观点的最为重要的原因是美国之经济前景。由于全球之复苏是在美国的推动下实现的，因此，该国的持续不振就意味着全球的经济前景也是黯淡的。不过，这似乎是不可能发生的事情。1月份的数据之差——从制造业订单的疲软到汽车销量的低迷——是因为天气在作怪。今年的冬天可谓是一个少见的寒冬，降雪之大，气温之低，使经济活动大受影响。这预示着定于本报付印之后的2月7日公布的包括最为重要的就业情况在内的1月份经济数据应该非常不可信。
6All the more so becau there is no reason to expect a sudden spending slump. The balance-sheets of American houholds are strong. The stockmarket slide has dented consumer confidence, but investors' flight from risk has pushed down yields on Treasury bonds, which in turn should lower mortgage rates. Fiscal policy is far less of a drag than it was in 2013. All this still points to solid, above-trend growth of around 3% in 2014. One reason this may not excite investors is that it no longer implies an acceleration. America's
economy was roaring along at a 3.2% pace at the end of 2013. The first few months of 2014 will be weaker than that, even though average growth for 2014 still looks likely to outpace last year's rate of 1.9%.
如此，所谓“fruit是什么意思开支将突然大幅减少”的预期也是不成立的。美国家庭收支良好。股市下跌挫伤了消费者的信心，但投资者逃离风险的行为则推动了美债收益率的下降，而这反过来又会使贷款利率走低。财政政策已经不会再像2013年那样，对经济带来拖累效应了。由此可知，今年的增速仍会稳定地维持在长期趋势线的上方，即3%左右。但投资者并未因此而兴奋。究其原因，或许是投资者已经无法再从中找到增长加速的理由了。在去年年底时，美国经济曾以3.2%的增速呼啸向前。今年头几个月可能会慢下来，但目前来看，平均增速仍有可能超过去年的1.9%。
7China's economy, for its part, is clearly slowing. The latest purchasing managers' index suggests factory activity is at a six-month low. The question is how far and how fast that slowdown goes. Many investors fear a “hard landing”. Their logic is that China has reach
ed the limits of a debt-fuelled and investment-led growth model; and that this kind of growth does not just slow but ends in a financial bust. Hence the jitters on news that a shadow-bank product had to be bailed out. Yet it remains more likely that China's growth is slowing rather than slumping. The government has the capacity to prevent a rout; and the recent bail-out suggests it is willing to u it.
就自身而言，中国经济正在明显放缓。最新的PMI指数表明，制造业活动正处于6个月以来的低点。但问题在于这种放慢会慢到什么程度，会以怎样的速度进行。在众多担心“硬着陆”的投资者看来，这种由债务推动、以投资为主的中国式增长模式在发展到极限时，除了减速之外，最终会以金融危机的形式来收尾。因此，当一家影子银行的产品被迫接受了政府纾困的消息传出后，市场随即陷入了焦躁不安。然而，这仍然更像是“中国增长正在放慢而非暴跌”的情况。中国政府有能力阻止溃败；最近的纾困行为也表明了他们具有利用这种方式的意愿。bent
8If fears about a hard landing in China are exaggerated, then so are worries about a broa
d emerging-market collap. That is becau the pace of Chine growth has a big direct impact on emerging economies as a whole. Expectations for Chine growth will also be a big influence on the desire of foreigners to flee other emerging markets, and hence on how much financial conditions in the countries tighten. After more than doubling interest rates, Turkey's economy will be lucky to grow by 2% in 2014, compared with almost 4% in 2013. But in most places less draconian rate hikes will merely dampen a hoped-for acceleration in growth rather than prompt a rout.
倘若有关“中国硬着陆”的担忧是夸大其词的说法，那么，有关“新兴经济体大崩溃”宦官是什么意思的忧虑也是如此。理由如下：中国的增长步伐对整个新兴经济体有着巨大的直接影响。因而，对中国增长的预期也会对外国投资者逃离其他新兴经济体的需求带来巨大的直接影响，从而对这些新兴经济体在多大程度上收紧金融条件也带来巨大的直接影响。在土耳其将其利率提高了一倍之后，幸运的话，今年的增长或许能达到2%，而该国去年的增长为4%。但是，对于大多数新兴经济体来说，他们是不太有可能像土耳其那样大幅加息的，因为这样做除了会扼杀预期的增长加速之外，更会造成经济的溃败。
9The final, paradoxical, reason for guarded optimism is that the market jitters make bolder monetary action more likely in Europe and Japan. With inflation in the euro area running at a worryingly low 0.8%, the European Central Bank (which met on February 6th after we went to press) needs to do more to loon monetary conditions. Really bold action, such as buying bundles of bank loans, is more likely when financial markets are in a funk. That logic is even stronger in Japan, who stockmarket has fallen furthest and where the economy will be hit by a sharp ri in the consumption tax on April 1st. So more easing is on the cards.
保持谨慎乐观的最后一个理由，同时也是一个自相矛盾的理由是，市场动荡会增大欧洲和日本采取更加大胆的货币行动的可能性。鉴于欧元区通胀正处于令人担忧之低的der什么意思>英语七年级上册0.8%，欧洲央行（他们已在本报截稿之日的2月6日召开了会议）需要拿出更多的办法，以放松货币环境。而对于在全球股市股市中跌幅最大，并且经济会因为自4月1日起大幅提高消费税而遭受打击的日本来说，该国更有理由在市场恐慌之际祭出一些真正大胆的行为，如购买打
包的银行贷款。这样看来，还会有更多的宽松政策出台。
Still in need of a spoonful of sugar
还需加勺糖爱你在心口难开英文
10 If this analysis is correct, the current market pessimism could prove temporary. Investors should recover their nerve as they reali that the bottom is not falling out of the world economy. Our prognosis is a lot better than the outcome markets now fear. But it would not be much to get excited about. The global recovery will be far from healthy: too reliant on America, still at risk from China, and still dependent on the prop of easy monetary policy. In other words, still awfully wobbly.
倘若分析正确，当前市场的悲观情绪就应该是暂时性的。随着投资者意识到全球经济尚未走出底部，保持警惕是应有之义。同他们的悲观相比，我们的预测要更乐观一些，但这不能成为情绪亢奋的借口。毕竟，全球复苏还远称不上健康，还过于依赖美国，仍然会因为
中国而风险犹存，依旧离不开宽松货币政策支撑。换言之，这仍然是一种依然相当不稳定的复苏。
From the print edition: Leaders
