tristarTED演讲—JophNye《21世纪权力的变迁》（中英对照）5篇prolog
第一篇：TED演讲—Joph Nye《21世纪权力的变迁》(中英对照)
I'm going to talk to you about power in this 21st century.And basically, what I'd like to tell you is that power is changing, and there are two types of changes I want to discuss.One is power transition, which is change of power amongst states.And they are the simple version of the message, is it's moving from West to East.The other is power diffusion, the way power is moving from all states, West or East, to non-state actors.Tho two things are the huge shifts of power in our century.And I want to tell you about them each parately and then how they interact and why, in the end, there may be some good news.我想讨论的是21世纪的权利。基本上我想告诉大家的是权利的变化，有两种变化是我想探讨的。一种是权利的转移，国家和国家之间的权利变化。这是对权利转移的简单解读，即权利正从西方转移到东方。另一种是权利的分散，即权利的转移是从西方和东方的各个国家 到非国家的范围。以上两种情况是本世纪权利的重要转移。我想分别说说这两种情况 和它们之间的相互影响 以及为什么说最终可能是个好消息。
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When we talk about power transition, we often talk about the ri of Asia.It really should be called the recovery, or return, of Asia.If we looked at the world in 1800, you'd find that more than half of the world's people lived in Asia and they made more than half the world's product.Now fast forward to 1900: half the world's people--more than half--still live in Asia, but they're making only a fifth of the world's product.What happened? The Industrial Revolution, which meant that all of a sudden, Europe and America became the dominant center of the world.What we're going to e in the 21st century is Asia gradually returning to being more than half of the world's population and more than half of the world's product.That's important, and it's an important shift.But let me tell you a little bit about the other shift that I'm talking about, which is power diffusion.说到权利的转移，我们经常会提起亚洲的崛起。确切地说应该称作亚洲的复兴或者亚洲的回归。回顾19世纪的世界，你会发现世界上一半以上的人口都居住在亚洲 而且他们生产的产品占了世界总量的一半以上。现在我们来看20世纪，世界上一般的人口——超过一半——仍然在亚洲居住，但是他们的生产总值进占全球的五分之一。这是为什么呢？工业革命，也就是说突然之间，欧洲和美国成为主导世界的中心。而到了21世纪，我们看到的是亚洲将重新回到占世
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界一半以上人口和生产总值的位置。这很重要，而且是一次重大的权利转移。但是接下来我要和你们探讨一下刚才提到的另外一种转移，那就是权利分散。
To understand power diffusion put this in your mind: computing and communications costs have fallen a thousandfold between 1970 and the beginning of this century.Now that's a big, abstract number, but to make it more real, if the price of an automobile had fallen as rapidly as the price of computing power, you could buy a car today for five dollars.Now when the price of any technology declines that dramatically, the barriers to entry go down;anybody can play in the game.So in 1970, if you wanted to communicate from Oxford to Johannesburg to New Delhi to Brasilia and anywhere simultaneously, you could do it, the technology was there.But to be able to do it, you had to be very rich--a government, a multinational corporation, maybe the Catholic Church--but you had to be pretty wealthy.Now, anybody has that capacity, which previously was restricted by price just to a few actors, if they have the price of entry into an internet cafe--the last time I looked, it was something like a pound an hour--and if you have Skype, it's free.So capabilities that were once restricted are now available to everyone.要理解权利分散 就要
明白一点：计算和交流的成本已经降到原来的千分之几 从1970年到本世纪初。这个数字很大，很抽象，但是具体来说，如果汽车价格的降幅和计算机的降幅一样，那么今天你只花五美元，就可以买辆车。那么如果所有的技术价格 都以这个strict是什么意思
magiccube幅度下跌，获得这一技术的门槛就会降低；人人都可以享有。从20世纪70年代开始，如果你想 从牛津到约翰内斯堡 或到新德里 或到巴西利亚 或是其他任何地方获得即时通讯，是可行的，因为技术已经发展到了这个阶段。但是要真正做到这一点，你需要很有钱才行—— 你要么是政府，要么是跨国公司，也可能是基督教堂 不过你得及其有钱才行。但是几天人人都能享有这些技术，以前人们受到价格的制约 只有少数人才能享有，如果人们有足够的钱去网吧—— 我上次查到的价格大概是每小时一磅左右—— 但是如果你用Skype，是免费的。所以曾经被限制的能力现在人人都可以享有。
销售二八法则And what that means is not that the age of the State is over.The State still matters.But the stage is crowded.The State's not alone.There are many, many actors.Some of that's good.Oxfam, a great non-governmental actor.Some of it's bad.Al Qaeda, another non-governmental actor.But think of what it does to how we think in traditional terms and conc
epts.We think in terms of war and interstate war.And you can think back to 1941, when the government of Japan attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.It's worth noticing that a non-state actor attacking the United States in 2001 killed more Americans than the government of Japan did in 1941.You might think of that as the privatization of war.So we're eing a great change in terms of diffusion of power.这并不意味着国家的时代结束了。国家依然很重要。但是舞台是很拥挤的。国家不可能单独存在。还有很多很多的角色。其中有一些是好的角色。比如牛津饥荒救济委员会（乐施会）就是一个很重要的非政府角色。其中也有一些是不好的。基地组织，是另一个非政府角色。但是试想这些对我们 传统的思维方式和观念有哪些改变。我们过去考虑的是战争 和内战。大家可以想一想1941年，日本政府日本政府袭击美国珍珠港。只得注意的是 在2001年，一个非政府的角色 袭击了美国 在这次袭击中丧生的美国人超过了 1941年日本政府的行为。你可能会想战争已经不再是国家行为。因此我们看到的是权力分散的一个重大变化。
Now the problem is that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways.So let me step back and ask: what's power? Power is simple the ability to affect others to get the outcomes you want, and you can do it in three ways.You can do it with threats, of coercio
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n--sticks, you can do it with payments--carrots, or you can do it by getting others to want what you want.And that ability to get others to want what you want, to get the outcomes you want, without coercion or payment, is what I call soft power.And that soft power has been much neglected and much misunderstood.And yet it's tremendously important.Indeed, if you can learn to u more soft power, you can save a lot on carrots and sticks.Traditionally, the way people thought about power was primarily in terms of military power.For example, the great Oxford historian who taught here at this university, A.J.P.Taylor, defined a great power as a country able to prevail in war.But we need a new narrative if we're to understand power in the 21st century.It's not just prevailing at war, though war still persists.It's not who army wins;it's also who story wins.And we have to think much more in terms of narratives and who narrative is going to be effective.可问题是我们对此的看法不够新。所以让我们再退一步重新审视并且想一想：什么是权利？ 权利其实就是一种能力 能够影响他人 以达到你的目的，实现权利的方式有三种。可以威胁他人，通过强迫——棍棒，可以买通他人 胡萝卜，或者通过让别人心甘情愿地做你想要达成的结果。而让别人心甘情愿地做逆向要做的，来达到你的目的，而不是通过强迫或买通，
就是我所说的软实力。而这种软实力很大程度上被人们所忽视所误解了。然而软实力是极其重要地。事实上，如果你知道如何运用软实力，你会节省很多地胡萝卜和棍棒。按照惯例，人们认为权利基本就是军事力量。例如来自牛津的伟大的历史学家 A.J.P.泰勒 对大国的定义是 能够打赢战争的国家。但是我们需要一个新的阐述来真正懂得21世纪地
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