科学证明：成功真的得靠运⽓
很多⼈都相信⼀句话，就是⼈定胜天，天道酬勤。⼤家都相信成功是要99%甚⾄是100%的努⼒，但是最新的⼀项研究表明很多成功是靠运⽓的，在成功的事件⾥运⽓的成分很⼤。⼀起来看看这份研究是怎么说的，有没有颠覆你的观念。
hance events play a much larger role in life than many people once imagined.
偶然事件对于命运的改变，⽐许多⼈以前想象的要⼤得多。
Most of us have no difficulty recognizing luck when it’s on conspicuous display, as when someone wins the lottery. But randomness often plays out in subtle ways, and it’s easy to construct narratives that portray success as having been inevitable. Tho stories are almost invariably misleading, however, a simple fact that has surprising implications for public policy.
当好运以⾮常引⼈注⽬的⽅式降临，⽐如有⼈中了彩票，我们⼤部分⼈不难看出来。但这种偶然因素往往以不易察觉的⽅式起作⽤，因此⼈们容易构建出⼀种逻辑，将成功描绘为必然的。然⽽，这些成功故事⼏乎都不可避免地存在误导性，⽽这样⼀个简单的事实，会对公共政策产⽣令⼈意外的后果。
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Consider the history of the Mona Lisa, perhaps the most famous painting in the world. After having lang
uished in obscurity for most of its early existence, Leonardo da Vinci’s work was pushed into the spotlight in 1911 when it was stolen from the Louvre.
来看看《蒙娜丽莎》(Mona Lisa)的历史吧。这或许是世界上最知名的⼀幅画。在诞⽣之初的⼤多数时间⾥，莱昂纳多·达芬奇(Leonardo da Vinci)的这幅画作⼀直默默⽆闻。直到1911年，它从卢浮宫被盗，⽅才突然成为众⼈关注的焦点。
The widely publicized theft remained unsolved for two years until Vincenzo Peruggia, an Italian maintenance worker at the Louvre, was apprehended after trying to ll the painting to the Uffizi Gallery in Florence, Italy. His arrest provoked a cond wave of publicity, with images of the Mona Lisa splashed around the world.
两年后，这桩⼴为⼈知的盗窃事件终于告破。当时，卢浮宫的意⼤利维修⼯温琴佐·佩鲁贾(Vincenzo Peruggia)试图将这幅画卖给位于意⼤利佛罗伦萨的乌菲齐美术馆(Uffizi Gallery)，随即被捕。此⼈归案再次引发⼈们对《蒙娜丽莎》的⼴泛关注，它的图⽚出现在世界各地的媒体上。
In the years since, the painting has come to reprent Western culture itlf. Yet had it never been stolen, most of us would know no more about it than we do of the two obscure Leonardo da Vinci canvas from the same period that hang in an adjacent gallery at the Louvre. Like Kim Kardashian, 我不知道发生了什么
apparently, the Mona Lisa is famous largely for being famous.joke是什么意思
在之后的多年⾥，这幅画逐渐成为西⽅⽂化本⾝的代表。但是，如果不是因为当初被盗，我们⼤多数⼈对它的了解，不会⽐莱昂纳多·达芬奇同⼀时期创作的另外两幅鲜为⼈知的油画更多。后⼆者就挂在卢浮宫内与《蒙娜丽莎》相邻的展厅内。显然，就像⾦·卡戴珊(Kim Kardashian)⼀样，《蒙娜丽莎》之所以这么出名，很⼤程度上就是因为⼤家知道了它的存在。
As in the art world, so too in the world of work. Almost every career trajectory entails a complex quence of steps, each of which depends on tho preceding it. If any of tho earlier steps had been different, the entire trajectory would almost surely have been different, too.
职场和艺术界是⼀样的。⼏乎每个⼈的事业轨迹都是由⼀系列复杂的步骤组成，其中的每⼀步都取决于前⾯迈出了什么样的步伐。如果早前的步伐中有任何⼀步是另外⼀个样⼦，⼏乎可以肯定，整个轨迹也会因之不同。
Inevitably, some of tho initial steps will have been influenced by emingly trivial random events. So it is reasonable to conclude that virtually all successful careers entail at least a modicum of luck.
⽽在最初的步伐中，有些不可避免地会受到看似微不⾜道的偶然事件的影响。所以我们可以得出这样⼀个合理的结论：所有成功的职业⽣涯⾄少都包含些许的运⽓成分。
六年级上册英语书翻译One’s date of birth can matter enormously, for example. According to a 2008 study, most children born in the summer tend to be among the youngest members of their class at school, which appears to explain why they are significantly less likely to hold leadership positions during high school and thus, another study indicates, less likely to land premium jobs later in life. Similarly, according to rearch published in the journal Economics Letters in 2012, the number of American chief executives who were born in June and July is almost one-third lower than would be expected on the basis of chance alone.
⽐如，⼀个⼈的出⽣⽇期就可以产⽣⾮常⼤的影响。2008年的⼀项研究显⽰，⼤多数出⽣在夏天的孩⼦往往是班上最⼩的学⽣，⽽这似乎解释了为何他们在很⼤程度上不太可能在⾼中期间担任领导⾓⾊，因此就像另⼀项研究显⽰的，也就不太可能在以后的⽣活中获得优质⼯作机会。2012年刊登于《经济学快报》杂志(Economics Letters)的⼀项研究也显⽰，出⽣在6⽉和7⽉的美国企业⾸席执⾏官⽐单就概率计算应该出现的⼈数少了将近三分之⼀。
Even the first letter of a person’s last name can explain significant achievement gaps. Assistant professors in the 10 top-ranked American economics departments, for instance, were more likely to be promoted to tenure the earlier the first letter of their last names fell in the alphabet, a 2006 study found. Rearchers attributed this to the custom in economics of listing co-authors’ names alphabeti
cally on papers, noting that no similar effect existed for professors in psychology, who names are not listed alphabetically.
就连姓⽒的⾸字母也有可能是⼈们取得的成就天差地别的原因。⽐如，2006年的⼀项研究发现，对于美国最顶级的⼗个经济学院系的助理教授来说，其姓⽒⾸字母在字母表中的位置越靠前，就有可能越早获得终⾝教职。研究⼈员将其中的原因归为经济学领域的⼀种惯例，即发表论⽂时按姓⽒⾸字母对共同作者进⾏排序。这项研究还指出，⼼理学领域的教授发表论⽂时排名不按姓⽒字母顺序，就不存在类似的效应。
To acknowledge the importance of random events is not to suggest that success is independent of talent and effort. In highly competitive arenas, tho who do well are almost always extremely talented and hard-working. As Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Warren E. Buffett’s holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, has said, “The safest way to get what you want is to try and derve what you want.”todo
认可偶然事件的重要性，不是为了证明成功不依赖于天赋和努⼒。事实上，在竞争极为激烈的领域，表现好的⼈⼏乎总是极具天赋⽽⼜⾮常勤勉的⼈。就像沃伦·E·巴菲特(Warren E. Buffett)的控股公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的副董事长查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)曾经说过的，“要得到⾃⼰想要的东西，最稳妥的办法就是努⼒让⾃⼰变成值得拥有那⼀切的⼈。”
绘本在线Perhaps the most uful advice for someone who aspires to material success is to develop experti at a task that others value. Such experti comes not from luck but from thousands of hours of assiduous effort.
对于渴望获得物质成功的⼈⼠来说，最有⽤的建议或许是在被他⼈看重的某⼀领域掌握⾃⼰的专长。这种专长不可能来⾃运⽓，⽽是要靠成千上万个⼩时的刻苦努⼒。
But talent and effort are not enough. Luck also matters. Even the most able, industrious people in South Sudan have little chance at success. Success is not guaranteed for derving people in wealthy countries with highly developed legal and educational institutions and other infrastructure, but it’s substantially more likely.
但光有天赋和努⼒是不够的。运⽓也很重要。即便是最有能⼒、最勤勉的⼈，在南苏丹获得成功的机会也微乎其微。并不是说，在拥有⾼度发达的法律、教育体系及其他基础设施的富裕国家，理应获得成功的⼈就⼀定能成功，但他们的⼏率会⼤很多。
Being born in a good environment is one of the few dimensions of luck we can control — that is, at least we can decide how lucky our children will be. But as a nation, we’ve been doing a bad job of it for at least a generation. The luckiest are getting luckier even as their numbers shrink. The unlucky p
opulation is growing, and its luck is getting wor.
出⽣在⼀个良好的环境⾥，是我们所能掌控的为数不多的⼀项运⽓——也就是说，我们⾄少能决定让⾃⼰的孩⼦拥有多⼤的运⽓。不过，作为⼀个国家，我们在这⽅⾯做得并不好，⾄少在这⼆三⼗年⾥是如此。最幸运的⼈群在变得更加幸运，尽管他们的⼈数减少了。⽽不幸⼈群的基数却在增加，其运⽓也在变得更差。
The changes have stemmed in part from sharply diminished public support for education. According to a 2015 report by the nonpartisan Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, for example, state spending per student averaged about 20 percent less in 2014-15 than in the 2007-8 school year. More than 70 percent of students who graduated from four-year
percent less in 2014-15 than in the 2007-8 school year. More than 70 percent of students who graduated from four-year colleges in 2015 had student loans that averaged $35,000.
出现这些变化，有⼀部分原因是教育⽅⾯得到的公共⽀持急剧减少。⽐如，⽆党派机构预算与政策重点中⼼(Center for Budget and Policy Priorities)在2015年发表的⼀份报告显⽰，2014⾄2015学年，各州在每个学⽣⾝上的平均⽀出⽐2007⾄2008学年降低了20%。2015年从四年制学院毕业的学⽣，有超过70%背负着学⽣贷款，平均额度达3.5万美元。西安翻译公司
mark是什么
It’s no surpri, then, that access to the benefits of a college degree continues to depend heavily on family income. According to a study from the Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy, at the University of Pennsylvania, and the Pell Institute for thestudy of Opportunity in Higher Education, 77 percent of offspring of families in the top income quartile had earned college degrees by age 24 in 2013, compared with only 9 percent of tho from bottom-quartile families. More troubling, the disparity persists even when controlling for precollege academic aptitude scores.
因此也就不必奇怪，⼀个⼈能否享受⼤学学位带来的好处，会持续地严重依赖于其家庭收⼊状况。宾⼣法尼亚⼤学(University of Pennsylvania)⾼等教育与民主联盟(Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy)和佩尔⾼等教育机会研究所(Pell Institute for the study of Opportunity in Higher Education)共同进⾏的⼀项研究发现，2013年，收⼊⽔平处在前四分之⼀范围内的家庭的⼦⼥，有77%在24岁前拿到了⼤学学位；相⽐之下，来⾃后四分之⼀收⼊家庭的学⽣拿到学位的⽐例只有9%。更让⼈不安的是，即便排除了⼤学前的学术能⼒测验分数的影响，这种悬殊的差距依然存在。
The human tendency to underestimate luck’s role has contributed to this troubling state of affairs by reducing the electorate’s willingness to support the public investments that make economic success possible. But the taxes people want to avoid need not be personally painful.
⼈们有低估运⽓的作⽤的倾向，这帮助促成了如今这种令⼈不安的状况，因为它降低了选民们⽀持有可能带来经济成功的公共投资的意愿。但纳税⼈就是想避开⽆关个⼈痛苦的需求。
turnupthemusicEvidence from the social sciences demonstrates that beyond a certain income threshold, people’s n of well-being depends much more on their relative purchasing power than on how much they spend in absolute terms. If top tax rates were a little higher, all homes would be a little smaller, all cars a little less expensive, all diamonds a little more modest and all celebrations a little less costly. The standards that define “special” would adjust accordingly, leaving most successful people quite satisfied.
来⾃社会科学研究的证据证明，除了⼀定程度的收⼊门槛，⼈们的幸福感更多地取决于他们的相对购买⼒，⽽⾮他们⽀出绝对值的多少。如果最⾼税率略微⾼⼀些，所有的住宅都会略微⼩⼀些，所有汽车都会略微便宜⼀些，所有的钻⽯⾸饰都会略微朴素⼀些，所有庆祝活动的开⽀都会略微低⼀些。定义“特别”的标准会相应地发⽣改变，让⼤多数成功⼈⼠感觉相当满意。
Happily, there is a simple remedy: Merely prompting people to reflect on their good fortune tends to make them more willing to contribute to the common good, according to a 2010 studypublished in the journal Emotion. So try to engage your successful friends in discussions about their experiences
with luck. In the process, you may increa their willingness to support the kinds of public investments that will enhance the next generation’s odds of success. And you will almost surely hear some interesting stories.
幸运的是，这⾥有⼀个简单的解决之道：2010年发表在《情绪》期刊(Emotion)上的⼀项研究结果显⽰，只需敦促⼈们反思⾃⼰获得的好运⽓，就有可能让他们更愿意为公共利益做贡献。所以尽⼒让你⾝边那些⽐较成功的朋友们谈论⾃⼰幸运的经历。在这个过程中，你或许能增加他们⽀持⼀些能提⾼下⼀代成功⼏率的公共投资的意愿。⽽且⼏乎可以肯定的是，你也会听到⼀些有趣的故事。
看完了这个，⼩编决定⽴马去买彩票，指不定哪⼀天就中了呢。
2013考研英语二
