1. Moon Micro is a small manufacturer of rvers that currently builds all of its product in Santa Clara, California. As the market for rvers has grown dramatically, the Santa Clara plant has reached capacity of 10,000 rvers per year. Moon is considering two options to increa its capacity. The first option is to add 10,000 units of capacity to the Santa Clara plant at an annualized fixed cost of $10,000,000 plus $500 labor per rver. The cond option is to have Molectron, an independent asmbler, manufacture rvers for Moon at a cost of $2,000 for each rver (excluding raw materials cost), raw materials cost $8,000 per rver, and Moon lls each rver for $15,000.
Moon must make this decision for a two-year time horizon. During each year, demand for Moon rvers has an 80 percent chance of increasing 50 percent from the year before and a 20 percent chance of remaining the same as the year before. Molectron’s prices may change as well. They are fixed for the first year but have a 50 percent chance of increasing 20 percent in the cond year and a 50 percent chance of remaining where they are.
Using a decision tree to determine whether Moon should add capacity to its Santa Clara
plant or if it should outsource to Molectron. What are some other factors that would affect this decision that we have not discusd.
Assume that a discount factor is 10 percent.
注意：Moon已有设备产能为10,000，对两种方案都是一样提供该产能，所以比较增量需求利润即可。
Option A
Year 2avp
Revenue2=(20,000-10,000)*15,000*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*150,000*(0.16+0.16) +(10,000-10,000)*15,000*0.04
Variable cost2 = (20,000--10,000)*500*0.64 +(15,000-10,000)*500*(0.16+0.16) +(10,000-10,000)*500*0.04
Fixed cost2=10,000,000
Total cost2= Variable cost2+ Total cost2
Profit2 = Revenue2- Total cost2
Year 1
Revenue1=(15,000-10,000)*15,000*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*150,000*0.2
Variable cost1=(15,000-10,000)*500*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.2
Fixed cost1=10,000,000
Total cost1= Variable cost1+ Total cost1
Profit1 = Revenue1- Total cost1montreal
Ba Year 0
Profit0 =0
Option B
Year 2
Revenue2=(22,500-10,000)*15,000*(0.32+0.32)
+(15,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08) +(10,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.02+0.02)
Cost2 =(22,500-10,000)*(2000+8000) *0.32+(22,500-10,000)*(2400+8000) *0.32
+(15,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(15,000-10,000)* (2400+8000)*(0.08+0.08) +(10,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.02 +(10,000-10,000)* (2400+8000)*0.02
Profit2 = Revenue2- Total Cost2
同理可得Year 1 ,Year 0利润，代入下式：
比较NPVA, NPVB大者为最优方案！
2. Weekly sales of Hot Pizza are as follows:
Week | Demand ($) itav | Week | Demand ($) | Week | 音标课件Demand($) |
1 | 108 | 5 | 96 | 9 | 112 |
2 | 116 | 6 | 119十十五五 | 10 | 102 |
3 | 118 | 7 | 96 | 11freak | 92 |
4 | 124 | 8 南京新东方少儿英语 | 102 | 12 | 91 |
| | | | | |
Estimate demand for the next four weeks using a four-week moving average and simple exponential smoothing with α=0.1. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each ca. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why?
Refer to excel!
3. Harley Davidson has its asmbly plant in Milwaukee and its motorcycle asmbly plant in Pennsylvania. Engines are transported between the two plants using trucks, with each trip costing $1000. The motorcycle plant asmbles and lls 300 motorcycles each day. Each engine costs $500, and Harley incurs a holding cost of 20 percent per year. How many engines should Harley load onto each truck? What is the cycle inventory of engines at Harley?
Solution:
The economic order quantity is given by. In this problem:
D = 109,500 (i.e., 300 units/day multiplied by 365 days/year)
S = $1000/order
H = hC =0.2*500 = $100/unit/year
什么是预科
So, the EOQ value is 1480 units
So the total yearly cost is $147,986.
The cycle inventory value is EOQ/2 = 1480/2 =740
4. Prefab, a furniture manufacturer, us 20,000 square feet of plywood per month. Their trucking company charges Prefab $400 per shipment, independent of the quantity purchad. The manufacturer offers an all unit quantity discount with a price of $1 per square foot for orders under 20,000 square feet, $0.98 per square foot for orders betwee
n 20,000 square feet and 40,000 square feet, and $0.96 per square foot for orders larger than 40,000 square feet. Prefab incurs a holding cost of 20 percent per year. What is the optimal lot size for Prefab? What is the annual cost of such a policy? What is the cycle inventory of plywood at Prefab? How does it compare with the cycle inventory if the manufacturer does not offer a quantity discount but lls all plywood at $0.96 per square foot?
Solution
Pricing: | | |
Min Qty | Max Qty | Price per sq. ft. |
0 | 19,999 | $ 1.00 |
20,000 | 40,000 | $ 0.98 |
40,000 | | $ 0.96 |
| | |
(1) For, price = $1.00 per unit
Q1= EOQ =
Since Q1> 19,999
We lect Q1= 20,000 (break point) and evaluate the corresponding total cost, which includes purcha cost + holding cost + order cost
Total Cost1=
= = $ 241,960戴帽子的猫
(2) For, price = $0.98 per unit
Q2= EOQ =
Total Cost2 =
= = $241,334
(3) For, price = $0.96 per unit
Q不出国考托福有用吗3= EOQ =
We lect Q3= 40,000 (break point) and evaluate the corresponding total cost, which includes purcha cost + holding cost + order cost
Total Cost3 =
= =$236,640
Total Cost3 <Total Cost2 <Total Cost 1
So, the optimal value of Q* = 40000 and the total cost is $236,640
The cycle inventory is Q*/2 = 40000/2 = 20000
(b) If the manufacturer did not offer a quantity discount but sold all plywood at $0.96 per square foot then Q = 31,623 and the total cost is $ 233,436
