2008-风能预测的新发展
New Developments in Wind Energy Forecasting
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平安夜英语Matthias Lange, Ulrich Focken
风能预测的新发展
Matthias Lange, Ulrich Focken
Abstract--An overview of new and current developments in wind power forecasting is given where the focus lies upon practical implementations and experiences concerning the operational systems in Europe.
摘要——本文概述了：在风电功率预测方面，新的以及现有的发展。其重点在于实际的实现和欧洲管理系统的相关经验。
In general, modern short-term wind power prediction systems u either statistical or physical approaches to determine the anticipated wind power bad on numerical weather f
flightless birdorecasts. As an example the physical system Previento is described in detail. The typical accuracy of the forecasts for single wind farms as well as the aggregated production is shown.
一般来说,现代短期风电功率预测系统，基于数值天气预报的情况下使用或统计或物理方法,以确定预期的风力发电。作为应用物理方法的预测系统的一个例子，这里详细的介绍了Previento。其对单风力发电厂以及聚集生产方面的预测，显示出了典型的准确性。
One focus of this paper is the intelligent u of multiple input from numerical weather models to improve the accuracy of the power forecast. The two main approaches that are applied operationally are enmble predictions from one weather model and the combination of different numerical weather models. A weather-dependent combination tool that exploits the capabilities of numerical models of different weather rvices is described in detail.
本文的重点之一在于，聪明的利用来自于数值天气模型多种输入,以提高功率预测的准确性。在操作中被应用的两种主要的方法是,来自于一个天气模型的预测和几种不同的数值天small什么意思
气模型联合的综合预测。利用不同的天气情况有不同的数字模型的能力，一个依赖于天气的组合工具在这被详细的介绍。
independencedayIn the future, wind power predictions will be embedded deeper in the process of grid operators and traders. An example shown here are highly localized predictions for specific grid points which can directly be ud as input for power flow calculations, grid management or day-ahead congestion forecasts (DACF). In addition, the market integration of wind energy is pushed in a number of countries such that trading platforms which convert fluctuating wind power production into electricity products become more important.
在将来，风电功率预测将会被深深地嵌入到电网运营商和商人的进程中。这里显示的一个例子是对特殊网格点的高度局部预测，这些特殊点可以直接应用于潮流计算的输入，电网经营或日前拥挤的预测（DACF）。此外,市场一体化的风能被推向许多国家的贸易平台，将波动的风能生产转变为电力产品正变得越来越重要。
湖南培训Index Terms --Wind energy, Wind power generation, Forecasting, Meteorology, Weather f
jp是什么意思orecasting, Rearch and development.
关键词——风能、风力发电、预测、气象、天气预报、研究和发展。
I.I NTRODUCTION（介绍）
Wind power prediction systems provide the information how much wind power can be expected at which point of time in the next few days. In countries having a high penetration of wind energy in the electrical grid, in particular Denmark, Spain and Germany, wind power prediction tools turned out to be indispensable for the energy industry.
风电功率预测系统主要提供这样的信息：在接下来的几天，在某个时间点，有多少风能。电网中风能占很高的比例的国家之中，尤其是丹麦、西班牙和德国，风电功率预测工具被认为是能源产业所必不可少的。
The forecasts are mainly ud for the day-ahead scheduling of conventional power plants and trading of electricity on the spot market. Therefore, the time horizon of the forecast c
南京翻译公司ompris at least 36 hours as the deadline to place bids on the market is typically at noon for the complete following day.
预测主要用于传统发电厂日前调度和电力市场上的电能交易。因此，为了一个完整的第二天，由作为报价的最后期限的至少36小时组成的预测时间线通常在中午。
In addition, preci wind power predictions play an important role in the allocation of balancing power for the next few hours to come. This intraday application requires reliable updates of the predictions in order to have increasingly better forecasts for decreasing look ahead times.
此外,精确的风力发电的预测在为接下来的几个小时里分配平衡的电能，起到了起重要作用。这当前的应用要求可靠的更新的预测，目的是为了更好的预测,从而降低向前看次。
In Germany the installed wind power has grown tremendously in recent years and reached more than 20 GW. On stormy days the electricity production has already exceeded 18 GW. Thus, the contribution of wind energy to the total electricity production f
luctuates substantially such that wind power predictions play an important role in the daily planning procedures at utilities.
在德国,风能安装近年来出现了巨大的增长,达到二百亿瓦特。狂风暴雨的日子电力生产已超过一百八十亿瓦特。因此,风能对于总电能生产波动的影响如此之大,以至于风力发电预测在公用事业的日常规划程序中起到了重要作用。
愿意的英文
II. STATE-OF-THE-ART（最先进的水平）Modern wind power prediction systems provide forecasts for a time horizon of up to ten days in advance and are typically bad on numerical weather predictions (NWP). Hence, all the information about the future evolution of the wind field is provided by the NWP. The national weather rvices but also private weather data providers offer a broad range of different NWP data which are suitable for wind power predictions.
现代风电功率预测系统提供预测的时间线到提前10天,一般是基于数值天气
的预测(NWP)。因此,所有的关于的未来演变的风场的资讯都是由NWP提供的。国家气象服务以及私人气象数据提供商，提供广泛的不同的适合风力发电的预测的NWP数据。
The key issue in wind power forecasting is to transform the given numerical weather data into the power output of a wind turbine. For this purpo two fundamentally different approaches, the statistical approach on the one hand and the physical approach on the other hand have been developed in recent years. Both of them led to prediction systems which are scientifically as well as commercially successful. Recent overviews can be found in [1] and [2].
