ftwInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis • A-2361 Laxenburg • Austria Tel: +43 2236 807 • Fax: +43 2236 71313 • E-mail: info @iiasa.ac.at • Web: www.iiasa.ac.at Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expresd herein do not necessarily reprent tho of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.Approved by
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INTERIM REPORT
Contents
多媒体本地化
Population Dynamics2 Probabilistic Population Projections for the EU3 Sensitivity Analysis8 Conclusions10 References11 Appendix Tables13
Abstract
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This report prents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert bad probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low as
sumptions ud for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond esntially to tho of Eurostat. The high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67 percent and 90 percent of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above age 60 is likely to increa by about 60 percent whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20 percent. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young.
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idealisticAcknowledgments
This paper is a revid and expanded version of the keynote address delivered at the European Symposium “A Society for All Ages” organid by the Austrian EU-presidency and the European Commission in Vienna, Austria, 12 October 1998.
英国路冠About the Authors
Dr. Wolfgang Lutz is the Leader of IIASA’s Population Project.
Dr. Sergei Scherbov is from the Population Rearch Centre at the University of Groningen, the Netherlands.
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What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe?
秘密花园2
Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei Scherbov
When we speak of Europe, we usually do not think of it in a geophysical n as a specific mass of land, but rather in a social, cultural and economic n. It is the population of Europe that constitutes most of our interest in Europe. This European population, however, is not an amorphous and homogeneous mass. It is structured according to veral important criteria. In Europe, usually the first factors that come to mind are linguistics, culture and national divides. We may also think in terms of place of residence, employment status and social class. In focusing on the structures we sometimes tend to forget about the two most fundamental structures of any population, namely age and gender. Gender has recently received increasing attention, and most governments as well as the European Commission have created special bodies to study gender issues and promote equal opportunities for men and women. The age dimension has not yet received similar attention. But since we are expecting very significant changes in the age distribution of Europe’s population – a rapidly increasing number of elderly together with a shrinking number of children – the age dimension of the population structure and all associated issues of inter-generational relations are likely to receive increasing attention in the future.
Why should one be interested in age? At the individual level this sounds like a silly question. Whether you are one year old, 10 years old, 40 years old or 80 years old is probably the single most important determinant of how you feel and live, what you do, and what you still expect from life. It is directly related to the process of socialisation, development of skills, body strength, maturing, and last but not least, the remaining average life expectancy. On the level of society this question is less obvious. Does it make any difference whether half of the population is below age 15, as in some developing countries, or whether half is above age 40, as is already the ca in veral European countries? It is obvious that it makes a difference in demand for schools and for homes for the elderly. It is also evident that it significantly affects the balance of payments in a pay-as-you-go pension system in which tho who are gainfully employed today pay for tho who are entitled to retirement benefits. And it is expected to also have significant implications for the labour market. But one may even go beyond that and speculate about changing consumer demand and changing cultural preferences. It is also evident, that changing family structures are intimately related with both the reasons for population ageing (due to low fertility rates) and its conquences in terms of family networks. More generations are alive at the same time, while simultaneously there are
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