TED演讲为什么我们总是会忽略掉一些很明显的风险
hello大家好，我是达达。Michele Wucker督促我们，要正视生活中的“灰犀牛”事件——那些极有可能发生、极度明显的、却被我们忽视的危险。只有我们更愿意认识到身边的问题，并且做出计划去解决，才能更好地承受风险！
Michele Wucker是一名作者和策略家，她创造了“灰犀牛”一词，以隐喻明显的风险，但却轻易会被我们忽略掉。
演讲者：Michele Wucker
忽略掉一些很明显的风险 来自TED英语演说优选 00:00ttings是什么意思 英语四级准考证号忘记10:58
中英文对照翻译So what if there were a highly obvious problem right in front of you? One that everyone was talking about, one that affected you directly. Would you do everything within your power to fix things before they got wor? 假如有一个非常明显的问题摆在你面前，一个所有人都在讨论的，直接影响你的问题。请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前，尽你所能去解决它吗？
the karate kid
Don't be so sure. We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit to miss what's right in front of our eyes. And in fact, we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things precily becau of the threat that they reprent to us, in business, life and the world. 不要太确定你的答案。我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人，更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。而且就事实上来说，有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因，正是来自这些事情给我们的，在事业方面，生活方面，乃至世界方面的风险。So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy. So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Rerve, his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy and to make sure that they didn't spin out of control. 我想举一个我身边的例子——经济政策。 当阿兰·格林斯潘还是联邦储备局局长的时候，他的整个工作就是小心地监督美国经济的潜在问题，并确保它们没有失去控制。altus
you are everywhere>雍正行乐图
So, after 2006, when real estate prices peaked, more and more and more respected leaders and institutions started to sound the alarm bells about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles. 所以，2006年以后，当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候，越来越多有名望的领导人和机构开始敲响风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。
As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down. Banks collapd, global stock markets lost nearly half their value, millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure. And at the bottom, nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work. 如各位所知，2008年一切都轰然倒塌。银行倒闭，全世界的股票市场丢失了接近一半的价值，数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。而在社会基层，将近十分之一的美国人失业了。 So after things calmed down a little bit, Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said, 'Nobody could have predicted that crisis.' They called it 'a black swan.' Something that was unimaginable, unforeeable and completely improbable. 所以在事情缓和了一些以后，格林斯潘和许多人从这个低谷中走出来说： “没有人会有可能提前预知这场危机。” 他们叫它“黑天鹅”。 一个很难想象的，不可预知并且完全难以置信的事情。
A total surpri. Except it wasn't always such a surpri. For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value in less than four years. I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it. 一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。只是它不总是一个惊喜。比如说，我在曼哈顿的公寓在不到四年的时间里价值几乎翻了一倍。我获得了一些信息，于是我将它出售了。 So, a l
ot of other people also saw the warning, spoke out publicly and they were ignored. So we didn't know exactly what the crisis was going to look like, not the exact parameters, 总之，很多其他人也看到了同样的警示，公开地说了出来，但是这些信息都被忽视了。所以我们并不准确地知道这场危机到底会是什么模样，不知道确切的参数，
but we could all tell that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable as a giant gray rhino charging right at us. 但是我们可以说这个即将到来的事情，和一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛一样的危险，可见，可预判。 The black swan lends itlf to the idea that we don't have power over our futures. And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore it entirely. 这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点，那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。不幸的是，我们越是这样想，我们就越有可能对之不予重视，甚至完全忽视它。
stoerAnd this dangerous dynamic masks another problem: that most of the problems that we're facing are so probable and obvious, they're things that we can e, but we still don't do anything about. 这个危险的情况还掩盖了另一个问题：那就是我们所面对的困难都极有
可能发生且极度明显，它们是我们所能看见的，但是我们依然不采取任何措施。 So I created the gray rhino metaphor to meet what I felt was an urgent need. To help us to take a fresh look, with the same passion that people had for the black swan, but this time, for the things that were highly obvious, highly probable, but still neglected. Tho are the gray rhinos. 所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，来描绘我所认为的“急需”。为了帮助我们焕然一新，用我们曾经对待“黑天鹅”那样的热情，但这次为了非常明显的事件，很可能发生，但是依然被忽视的事件。那些事件就是灰犀牛。 Once you start looking for gray rhinos, you e them in the headlines every day. And so what I e in the headlines is another big gray rhino, a new highly probable financial crisis. And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years. 一旦你开始寻找这种动物，你就会每天都在头条看到它的名字。然而我在头条所看到的是另外一头灰犀牛。一个全新的，极有可能发生的金融危机。于是我在想我们是否真的从过去的十年里学到了什么。So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street, you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead. But in China, where I spend a lot of time, the conversation is totally different. The entire economic team, all the way up to president himlf, talk very specific
fossilizationally and clearly about financial risks as gray rhinos, and how they can tame them. 如果你是从华盛顿或者华尔街听到的消息，你认为一切顺利就情有可原。但是在中国，一个我投入了许多时间研究的国家，对话内容完全不一样。所有的经济小组，一直到主席本人， 都会很清晰具体地讲述经济风险，并用上灰犀牛的比喻， 并且讨论他们会怎样制服它。
Now, to be sure, China and the US have very, very different systems of government, which affects what they're able to do or not. And many of the root caus for their economic problems are totally different. But it's no cret that both countries have problems with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity. 很明显，中国和美国有着差异很大的政府系统，这影响着他们的能力范围，并且两个国家的经济问题根源也完全不同。虽说如此，两国都存在问题已不是秘密，例如债务，不平等和经济生产力。 So how come the conversations are so different? You could actually ask this question, not just about countries, but about just about everyone. 到底为何这些对话如此不同？其实这个问题不仅适用于国家，也适用于每个人。patience
The auto companies that put safety first and the ones that don't bother to recall their shod
dy cars until after people die. The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable -- the ones who have the eulogy written, the menu for the funeral lunch. 那些把安全放在第一位的汽车公司，和一些从不考虑召回他们的劣质汽车的公司，直到有人丧命。那些为不可避免的离世而做准备的祖父母——那些已经将写好悼词和葬礼午餐菜单的， My grandparents did. And everything but the final date chiled into the gravestone. But then you have the grandparents on the other side, who don't put their final affairs in order, who don't get rid of all the junk they've been hoarding for decades and decades and leave their kids to deal with it.我的祖父母就这样做了，包括所有其他的事情，除了刻到坟墓上的最后日期。但当你又有与我相反的祖父母，他们不规划自己临终时的事情，他们不轻易摆脱掉那些他们已经囤积了数十载的废旧物品，并且留给他们的子女去解决。 So what makes the difference between one side and the other? Why do some people e things and deal with them, and the other ones just look away? So the first one has to do with culture, society, the people around you. 那么两种方式的差别在哪里？为什么有的人会注意到问题并解决，而其他人仅会无视？首先是与文化和社会因素有关。那些你身边的人。
hooverphonic
