摘要
如鱼得水记单词摘要
登革热作为世界上最具威胁的蚊媒传染病之一，近几十年来发病率在全球范围内急剧增长。对登革热的传播过程进行计算机模拟有助于了解登革热传播机制，从而制定更科学的预防策略。人类出行活动是传染病的传播的关键因素之一，而现有模型中利用少量出行调查数据和重力模型等方法模拟的人口移动存在采样率低、不精准等局限性；其次，人群中大量的无症状感染者在登革热传播中发挥重要作用，但许多研究却忽略了这一重要因素，从而导致模型不能够较为真实的模拟登革热的传播扩散过程。因此，迫切需要一个考虑无症状感染者影响并结合更加精准的城市内部真实人口移动的登革热传播模型。
针对上述问题，为了弥补现有模型的局限性，本研究提出了一个结合多源轨迹数据的空间显式个体模型，并使用该模型对城市内部登革热传播扩散过程进行模拟。本研究中使用的由大规模的手机定位数据、出行调查数据等组成的多源轨迹数据能够较真实的模拟城市内部个体移动模式，从而支持更加精细化的登革热传播扩散和防控策略模拟。此外，对于登革热传播过程中存在的大量无症状输入病例，本研究设计了三种方案来探索无症状输入病例最可能的空间分布。
举办英语本研究以2014年深圳市登革热疫情为案例进行登革热的传播扩散模拟，通过时空结果分析表明，本研究提出的空间显式个体模型能够很好地推演登革热疫情在城市内部的时空发展过程。当无症状输入病例的
空间分布与有症状输入病例的空间分布相一致时，模型表现最好，模拟的登革热病例的时空分布与实际相符度最高，说明无症状输入病例在时空上总是伴随着有症状输入病例共同出现。
同时，基于本研究提出的登革热传播模型开展了登革热疫苗计划、隔离有症状感染者和精准灭蚊三种防控策略的模拟。防控策略的模拟结果表明，对于登革热而言，疫苗计划的干预措施是最有效的防控手段，当疫苗注射比例为60%时，可以减少约96.53%的感染者，并且每日新增感染者人数不超过两人，有效地阻止了登革热病毒的传播扩散；其次，隔离有症状的感染者的防控效果显著，隔离全部有症状感染者可以减少81.80%的登革热感染者的人数，但要把握其隔离策略实施的时间，如果采取策略的时间推迟四周以上，则防控效果大大降低；最后，对于常用的灭蚊防控策略而言，精准的实施消杀措施可以一定程度上降低到登革
城市内部登革热传播及防控策略模拟——一种结合多源轨迹数据的空间显式个体模型
热的传播风险，当灭蚊比例为100%时，感染者数量减少64.94%，但是与疫苗计划和隔离措施相比，防控效果相对不理想。当同时采取隔离有症状感染者和精准灭蚊策略时，感染者数量减少85.51%。考虑到目前登革热疫苗目前并没有广泛普及，所以本研究推荐的防控策略是隔离感染者与精准灭蚊联防联控，从而降低登革热传播扩散的风险。
本研究的贡献主要在于：（1）结合多源轨迹数据构建了空间显式个体传播模型，该模型可以更加准
成人线上英语怎么样确的描述微观个体交互，减少时空不确定性的同时充分考虑了人群异质性，同时能够从时间空间的角度支撑更加精细化的登革热传播和干预策略模拟；（2）结合基于多源轨迹数据的空间显式个体传播模型，进一步模拟并评估了登革热疫苗计划、隔离有症状感染者及精准灭蚊三种登革热干预策略，通过模拟结果分析推荐当前最佳的登革热防控策略，为城市内部登革热防控策略制定提供科学指导。（3）首次探索了无症状输入病例空间位置对登革热传播扩散的影响，通过结果分析发现无症状输入病例最可能的空间分布与有症状输入病例一致，这一探索发现可以加强对登革热无症状感染者的认识。（4）通过防控策略研究发现，隔离和精准灭蚊两种防控策略联防联控，是当前最佳的登革热防控干预措施。
综上所述，本研究提供了一个有效的结合多源轨迹数据的空间显式个体的模型，不仅能够精确地模拟登革热的时空特征，增加对无症状病例的更深入的了解；还能够从个体层面支持更加精细化的多种登革热防控策略的模拟，为防控策略的制定提供科学指导。
关键词：登革热、多源轨迹数据、空间显式个体模型、登革热防控策略
Abstract
Abstract
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As one of the most threatened mosquito-borne dias in the world, dengue fever has grown dramatically around the world in recent decades. Simulating dengue outbreak is important for understanding the transmission mechanism of dengue fever and thus to make better prevention strategies. As human mobility is one of the key factors for the spread of infectious dias, however, the existing models that u a small amount of travel survey data and gravity models to simulate human movements has some limitations such as low sampling rates and inaccuracy. Second, a large number of aymptomatic infected people in the crowd play an important role in the transmission of dengue fever, but many studies have ignored this important factor, which led to the model cannot realistically simulate the spread of dengue fever. Therefore, an accurate dengue transmission model with more realistic human movements and taking into account aymptomatic infected people is urgently required.
Aiming at the urgently requirement above, in this study, we propod a spatially explicit, individual-bad model bad on multisource trajectory data to simulate dengue transmission in an intra-urban environment, which can make up for its limitations. The multisource trajectory data compod of large-scale mobile phone location data and travel survey data ud in this study can more realistically simulate individual movements in cities, thereby supporting more accurate simulation of
to用法dengue spread and prevention and control strategies. In addition, for a large number of asymptomatic import cas during the transmission of dengue fever, we design three scenarios to explore the most likely spatial distribution of asymptomatic infections.
Taking the dengue outbreak of Shenzhen, China in 2014 as a study ca, the simulation results suggest that our propod spatially explicit, individual-bad model can well reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns of the dengue outbreak. It also indicates that when the spatial distribution of asymptomatic imported cas is consistent with the symptomatic imported cas, the model behaves best that the simulated spatio-temporal distribution of dengue cas matches well with the reality, thus indicates that asymptomatic import cas are always co-occurrence with symptomatic cas.
At the same time, according to the dengue transmission model propod in this study, three dengue prevention and control strategies were simulated. The dengue prevention and control strategies are dengue vaccination program, isolation of
基于数据融合的城市人口移动建模
symptomatic infected persons and precision mosquito control strategies. The simulation results sho
w that the intervention of dengue vaccination program is the most effective prevention and control method for dengue. When the proportion of vaccination is 60%, it can reduce about 96.53% of the infected people,and the number of new infected people per day does not exceed two, effectively preventing the spread of dengue virus; condly, isolation of symptomatic infected people can significantly reduce the number of dengue infected people about 81.80%% . However, it is necessary to grasp the time of isolation strategy, if the time of strategy is too late, the prevention and control effect will be greatly reduced; finally, for mosquito control measures commonly ud in dengue control, preci implementation of killing mosquitos can reduce the risk of dengue fever transmission to a limited extent. When the ratio of mosquito control is 100%, the number of infected people will be reduced by 64.94%. However, compared with dengue vaccination programs and isolation measures, the mosquito control measures is less effectives. When the strategy of isolating symptomatic infected persons and precision mosquito control is adopted at the same time, the number of infected persons decreas by 85.51%. However, considering that dengue vaccines are currently unavailable, the recommended prevention and control strategy is joint prevention and control of isolating infected persons and controlling mosquitoes precily, thereby reducing the risk of dengue fever spreading.
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ubuntThe main contributions of this study mostly lies in: (1) The spatially explicit, individual-bad model bad on multisource trajectory data can more accurately describe the micro individual interaction, reduce the uncertainty of temporal and spatial, fully consider the population heterogeneity, and support more accurate dengue transmission and intervention strategy simulation; (2) Combined with the spatially explicit, individual-bad model bad on multisource trajectory data, three dengue intervention strategies including dengue fever vaccine plan, isolation of symptomatic infected persons and preci mosquito control were simulated and evaluated, and the current best prevention and control strategies were recommended through analysis of simulation results，which can provide scientific guidance for the development of dengue fever prevention and control strategies within the city. (3) It is the first time to explore the influence of the spatial location of asymptomatic import cas on the transmission of dengue fever, the results found that the most likely spatial distribution of asymptomatic import cas is consistent with the symptomatic input cas, which
Abstract
can strengthen the understanding of dengue fever asymptomatic patients. (4)Through the prevention and control strategy results, it’s shows that the joint prevention and control strategies of isolation and
preci mosquito control is the best strategy for dengue fever.bizarre foods
连衣裙英语怎么写Overall, this study provides an effective spatially explicit, individual-bad model that not only can accurately simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue at a fine scale, and provides deeper understanding of the asymptomatic cas, but also allows various dengue intervention simulations more refined at the individual level, which can help guide policy-making to control dengue outbreaks at an urban scale.
Key Words: Dengue fever, Multisource trajectory data , Spatially explicit individual-bad model, Dengue prevention and control strategies
