摘要
石羊河流域位于甘肃省河西走廊东部，地处青藏高原东北边缘，是三大自然带过渡交汇区。气候系统复杂，是典型的气候敏感区和生态环境脆弱带。研究本区的气候变化有很重要的现实意义。气候的急剧变化对农业的形响尤为显著，特别是对雨养农业区农业生产的影响更为巨大。
本文选用石羊河流域五个气象站点，1959~2008年的气候观测数据，利用气候倾向率法、曼－肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）趋势法，分析流域气候变化速率和变化趋势。利用曼－肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）突变检验法、复值Morlet小波周期分析法、GIS软件分别对流域的气候突变、周期、空间性分布进行了分析。最后简单分析了流域气候变暖对雨养农业区农业生产的影响。
研究得出：（1）石羊河流域平均日照时数呈增加的趋势。以春季日照时数增加为主，冬季次之，夏季最少。1963年的突变是低日照时数向相对高日照时数的突变，1983年的突变是日照时数幅度进一步增大的突变。流域25a的主周期最为显著。日照的分布特点是北部日照时间长，南部山区日照时间短，中部走廊平原的日照等值线大概和纬线平行。暗岛效应在一定程度上影响了城区日照时数的变化。
（2）流域50a来气温均在变暖，其倾斜率达到0.321℃/10a。中游和下游的增温幅度明显大于上游。20世纪60~80年代中期气温较低，20世纪90年代和21世纪初气温多为正距平。气候变暖主要表现在冬季，主要来自于最低气温升高的贡献。气温于1996年发生了由低温到高温的增温突变。气温存在12a左右的
变化周期。气温的分布特点是北部温度高，南部温度低，气温变化由南向北单位距离温差由大变小。热岛效应对城区的增温有很大的影响。
古浪站1971~2007年，日平均≥0℃、≥10℃积温，都呈增加趋势。日平均气温≥0℃积温突变点出现在1991年和1992年；日平均气温≥10℃积温突变点出现在1989年。日平均气温≥0℃积温，表现为明显的14a周期；日平均气温≥10℃积温存在14a和8a周期。
（3）流域50a来平均降水量为247.53mm，并以7.3mm/10a的速度增长，可见石羊河流域有变湿的趋势。四季降水量春、夏、冬季均表现为微弱增加趋势，而秋季呈现微弱的减少趋势。年均降水量的突变并不明显。降水量13a的周期为第一主周期。降水量的空间分布与日照的分布特点相似，南部山区降水多，北部
降水少。雨岛效应没有影响到城区降水量的增加。
（4）流域50a来平均风速呈现下降趋势，只有上游的乌鞘岭风速是明显的上升趋势。60年代风速最低，90年代到目前为止风速基本都在3m/s。并且春、秋、冬季风速都呈现下降趋势，夏季以0.004m/(s·10a)的速度上升。风速于1988年发生了由高到低的突变。风速存在19a的周期。风速的高值区集中在南部的山地，北部武威地区的风速一直以来都是低值区。
（5）石羊河流域雨养农业区存在明显的变暖趋势，使热量资源增加，适宜种植喜温作物的范围扩大，而春小麦的种植面积在减少，导致夏秋季作物种植结构发生明显改变。由于气候不断变暖使春小麦全生育期缩短近2天，播种期提前5-9天。
（6）气候的变化使得天祝县草场面积严重退化。天祝县草场生长的热量条件不足，而水分条件充足，热量是限制草场生长的主要因素。日照和风速对草场气候产量的增加起到一定的削弱作用，气候产量随着降水量的增加而增加。气温的升高对气候产量的增加起到推动的作用。
关键词：石羊河流域；气候；变化趋势；突变；周期；空间分布；雨养农业
Abstract
The Shiyang River Basin is located in Northesat edge, Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the regional climate system is complex becau many kinds of climate systems have a lot of influence on it. So, climate change rearch of this region was significance. Rapid climate change on agriculture is particularly significant, especially in Rain-fed Agriculture areas of agricultural production is more significant.
shakehands
Using climate data from 1959 to 2008 of Shiyang River Basin from 5 weather stations. The trend of c
limate was analyzed by climatic liner trend and Mann-Kendall trend methods. Then abrupt、periods、and spatial distribution of climate were analyzed respectively by the Mann-Kendall abrupt analysis、the wavelet analysis and GIS. At last, analysis of Climate Warming on Rain-fed Agricultural areas of agricultural production.
The main findings can be summarized as follows:(1)Shiyang River Basin average sunshine was an increasing trend. To increa the number of the main spring sunshine and winter and summer at least. The abrupt time is 1963a. After 1983a the rate of sunshine hours are further increasing. The periods of 25a of sunshine hours is the most significant. The distribution is characterized by sunshine: Long duration of sunshine in northern and southern mountain sunshine time is short, Central Corridor plain sunshine and latitude roughly parallel contour. Dark island effect to some extent, affected the city sunshine duration changes.
(2)The temperature of River is warming in recent 50a. Climatic trend rate is 0.321℃/10a. Middle and lower reaches of the temperature were much higher than the upstream. The temperature is lower in 20th century of 60-80, 90 years of the 20th century and early 21st century is mostly positive temperature anomalies. Mainly in the winter warming, mainly from the contribution of the lowest temperatures. The abrupt time is 1996a, which from low to high temperature warming. There is chan
英语对话ge in temperature cycle of about 12a. Temperature distribution is high temperature in northern and the low temperature in southern, the difference in temperature is from south to north into small units. Urban heat island effect on the temperature has a great influence.
≥0℃ accumulated temperature and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature were increasing trend in Gulang station from 1971a to 2007a. The abrupt time of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature was 1991a and 1992a, and it had 14a periods. Abrupt change of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was 1989a, and it had 14a and 8a periods.
(3)Mean annual of precipitation in Shiyang River Basin is 247.53mm in recent 50a, climatic trend rate of annual precipitation for every 10 year was 7.3mm. So there was wet trend in study area. The abrupt of annual precipitation was not obvious. The periods of 13a is the first cycle. The spatial distribution of precipitation is similar to the sunshine, Precipitation of the southern mountain areas was more than in the northern. Island effect rain did not affect the city of precipitation increas.
(4)There was a decreasing trend of wind speed in Shiyang River Basin in recent 50a, no other than the upriver of Wushaoling station was an increasing trend .The lowest wind speed in the 60 years, from 90 years to so far wind speed is 3m/s. Spring、autumn and winter wind speed is gradually decr
easing, but in summer there was a increasing trend which rate was 0.004m/(s·10a). In 1988a occurred in high to low abrupt. Wind speed had 19a periods. High values mainly in the south of the mountain and low values in the north of Wuwei areas.
(5)Rain-fed Agriculture areas of Shiyang River Basin had the distinct warming trend, heat resources had incread, suitable for growing thermophilic crops, the scope of thermophilic crops were expanding, spring wheat acreage were reduction, which led to significant changes in the structure of summer and autumn crops. Due to climate warming, growth period of spring wheat was shorter nearly two days, 5-9 days before sow period.
(6)Grassland area was verely degraded becau of the climate change. The pasture growth is lack of heat conditions but the moisture conditions were adequate, heat is the main factor which limited pasture growth. Sunshine and wind speed play a role in weakening grassland climate productivity, climate yield increas with the precipitation. The increa of temperature play the role to promoting the increa of the climate output.wet
Key words: Shiyang River Basin；Climate；Trend；Abrupt；Periods；Spatial distribution；Rain-fed Agriculture
目录
摘要
Abstract
1引言 (1)
1.1选题背景及研究意义 (1)
1.2研究进展 (2)
1.2.1国内外气候变化的研究进展 (3)
1.2.2石羊河流域及其周边地区气候变化研究进展 (5)
1.2.3国内外物候研究概述 (6)
1.3研究目的 (7)
1.4研究内容 (8)
1.5技术路线 (8)
2研究区概况、研究资料和研究方法 (10)
2.1研究区概况 (10)
2.1.1研究区位置和范围 (10)
2.1.2石羊河流域地貌 (10)
2.1.3石羊河流域气候 (11)
2.1.4石羊河流域水文 (11)
2.1.5石羊河流域土壤、植被 (11)cast away
2.1.6石羊河流域社会经济 (12)
webbrowr2.2研究资料 (12)
2.3研究方法 (13)
cancer是什么意思啊2.3.1Mann-Kendall趋势分析法（M-K法） (13)
2.3.2Mann-Kendall突变法 (13)
2.3.3小波周期分析法（Wavelet analysis） (14)
3主要气候资源的变化特征 (16)
3.1光能资源 (16)
3.1.1日照时数变化趋势的分析 (16)
3.1.2日照时数的突变性 (17)
3.1.3日照时数的周期性 (17)
3.1.4日照时数的空间性 (18)
3.1.5暗岛效应对日照时数的影响 (18)
3.2热量资源 (19)
3.2.1气温变化趋势的分析 (19)
3.2.2气温的突变性 (20)
doggy style3.2.3气温的周期性 (20)
3.2.4气温的空间性 (21)
3.2.5热岛效应对气温的影响 (21)
3.2.6雨养农业区积温的变化 (22)
adcenter3.3水分资源 (24)chapter是什么意思
frequently3.3.1降水变化趋势的分析 (24)
3.3.2降水的突变性 (25)
