摘要
作为海上油气田的生命线，深海油气输送系统面临许多潜在的危险，其中后果最严重的是油气泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故。历史上几起严重的海洋平台破坏事故是由爆炸引起，比如"深水地平线"平台爆炸事故和Piper-Alpha平台爆炸事故。因此对深海水下系统油气泄漏后果进行分析，特别是预测潜在的爆炸风险是非常必要的。本文对海洋平台的潜在蒸汽云爆炸进行了风险分析。
建立了一种利用模糊推理系统分析爆炸风险概率的方法。首先运用事故统计和FMEA分析来识别风险并构建故障树。选择Mamdani算法建立基于故障树的模糊推理模型。将底事件的相对重要性引入推理系统，使用校正函数来解决推理机输入输出差异的问题。使用Matlab和Simulink构建模糊推理系统的整体模型，计算爆炸概率。将该方法与传统故障树方法进行结果比较，表明该方法的科学性。该方法解决了传统故障树分析不能考虑相对重要性的缺点，可以灵活计算模糊值和实际值的输入，并且具有很强的可扩展性。
针对海洋平台爆炸的后果，从人员、环境、经济三方面来评价爆炸带来的后果，通过对研究成果进行调研和改进，形成了一套完整的蒸气云爆炸后果评价体系。利用Fluent软件对甲烷空气混合蒸气云爆炸进行数值模拟，发现爆炸超压的规律，将模拟结果与实验结果相比基本一致，证明了该方法的可行性。
对海洋工程中的多米诺事件进行了分析，提出了基于传统风险评价方法改进的多米诺事件风险组合评价
方法。利用粗糙集与神经网络结合的方法对多米诺事件的后果进行评估。
关键词：模糊推理；故障树；蒸气云爆炸；后果分析；海底管道；神经网络。
ABSTRACT
As the lifeline of the offshore oil and gas, deep-a oil and gas transportation system face many potential risks, one of the most rious conquences is explosion accident caud by the leakage of oil and gas. Several rious damage accidents of offshore platforms in history were caud by explosions, such as the Deepwater Horizon platform explosion and the Piper-Alpha platform explosion. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the conquences of oil and gas leakage in the deep-a underwater system, especially to predict the potential explosion risk. This paper analyzed the risk of potential steam cloud explosion of offshore platforms.
This paper established a method of using fuzzy reasoning system to analyze the probability of explosion risk. Firstly, accident statistics and FMEA analysis are ud to identify risks and build fault tree. Mamdani algorithm is lected to build a fuzzy reasoning model bad on the fault tree. The relative importance of the bottom event is introduced into the inference system, and the correction function is ud to solve the problem of input-output difference of the inference engine. The whole m
odel of the fuzzy reasoning system is constructed by using MATLAB and Simulink, to calculate the explosion probability. The comparison of the results between this method and the traditional fault tree method shows that the method is scientific. This method solves the disadvantage that traditional fault tree analysis cannot consider the relative importance. It can calculate the input of fuzzy value and actual value flexibly. it has strong expansibility.
In view of the conquences of the explosion of offshore platforms, this paper evaluates the conquences of the explosion from three aspects: personnel, environment, and economy. Through the investigation and improvement of the rearch results, a complete t of the evaluation system for the conquences of the vapor cloud explosion has been formed. Fluent software is ud to simulate the explosion of the methane-air mixed vapor cloud. The law of explosion overpressure is found. The simulation results are basically consistent with the experimental results, which proves the feasibility of the method.
This paper analyzed The domino events in ocean engineering and propod an improved risk combination evaluation method bad on traditional risk asssment method. Rough t and neural network are ud to evaluate the conquences of domino events.
KEY WORDS: Fuzzy inference; Fault tree; Vapor cloud explosion; Conquence analysis; Suba pipeline; Neural network.
韩文翻译器在线翻译IV
目录
摘要...................................................................................................................... III 第1章绪论. (1)
1.1论文的研究背景和意义 (1)
1.2国内外研究现状 (2)
1.2.1国外研究现状 (2)
1.2.2国内研究现状 (3)
1.3本文的研究内容 (5)
1.4创新点和技术路线 (5)
第2章蒸气云爆炸概率模糊推理 (7)
2.1风险源识别 (7)
nationalbank2.1.1 BSEE事故报告 (7)
2.1.2 FMEA分析 (10)
2.2建立故障树 (10)
2.3模糊推理系统设计 (13)
2.3.1底事件概率计算 (14)
2.3.1.1泄漏概率 (14)
2.3.1.2点火概率 (17)
2.3.1.3控制与预警失效概率 (20)
2.3.2模糊值转化 (22)
2.3.3模糊推理设计 (23)
2.3.4程序实现 (25)
2.4案例分析和讨论 (28)
2.5本章小结 (30)
第3章蒸气云爆炸后果评估 (31)
3.1爆炸超压模型 (31)
3.2人员伤亡 (34)
3.2.1人员伤亡范围 (34)
3.2.2个人风险和群体风险 (35)
乔布斯简历3.3环境污染 (36)infor
grill3.3.1油膜扩张模型 (36)
3.3.2油膜环境破坏模型 (37)
V
3.4经济损失 (38)
3.4.1人员伤亡导致的经济损失 (38)
3.4.2环境污染导致的经济损失 (39)
3.4.3其它经济损失 (42)
3.5降低风险的措施 (43)
3.6本章小结 (44)
第4章蒸气云爆炸超压数值模拟 (47)
4.1蒸气云爆炸相关原理 (47)
4.1.1理论模型 (47)
4.1.2燃烧模型 (48)
4.1.3湍流动能和耗散率 (48)
4.2建模与计算 (50)
4.2.1建模与网格划分 (50)
4.2.2方程和参数选取 (53)
4.3结果与分析 (54)
4.3.1模拟结果 (54)
4.3.2实验结果对比与分析 (57)
4.4本章小结 (60)
第5章蒸气云爆炸事故升级评估 (61)
5.1海洋平台的事故升级 (61)
5.1.1气云产生至点火前 (61)
5.1.2点火瞬时 (62)
5.1.3升级影响：设备失效 (62)resultfrom
5.1.4升级影响：防护屏障受损 (63)
5.1.5集合区受损 (63)
5.1.6撤离/逃生/救援 (63)
5.2事故升级风险分析 (64)
5.2.1确定升级向量 (64)
5.2.2案例分析 (66)
5.2.3概率分析 (68)苹果iphone4s报价
5.2.4后果分析 (70)
货柜英文
5.3事故升级后果评估 (72)
自强英语
5.3.1建立粗糙集 (72)
学术论文翻译5.3.2粗糙集约简 (76)
VI
