Graduates to apply for the quantitative analysis of changes in number of graduate students
一Topics raid
In this paper, the total number of students from graduate students (variable) multivariate analysis (e below) specific analysis, and collect relevant data, model building, this quantitative analysis. The number of relations between the school the total number of graduate students with the major factors, according to the size of the various factors in the coefficient in the model equations, analyze the importance of various factors, exactly what factors in changes in the number of graduate students aspects play a key role in and changes in the trend for future graduate students to our proposal.
The main factors affect changes in the total number of graduate students for students are as follows：
Per capita GDP - which is affecting an important factor to the total number of student
s in the graduate students (graduate school is not a small cost, and only have a certain economic ba have more opportunities for post-graduate)
The total population - it will affect the total number of students in graduate students is an important factor (it can be said to affect it is bad on source)
The number of unemployed persons - this is the impact of a direct factor of the total number of students in the graduate students (it is precily becau of the high unemployment rate, will more people choo Kaoyan will be their own employment weights)
Number of colleges and universities - which is to influence precily becau of the emergence of more institutions of higher learning in the school the total number of graduate students is not a small factor (to allow more people to participate in Kaoyan)
二 Establish Model
Y=α+β金鱼身上有白点1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4 +u
Among them, the
Y-in the total number of graduate students (variable)
X1 - per capita GDP (explanatory variables)
X2 - the total population (explanatory variables)
X3 - the number of unemployed persons (explanatory variables)
X4 - the number of colleges and universities (explanatory variables)
三、Data collection
1. date Explain
Here, using the same area (ie, China) time-ries data were fitted
2. Data collection
Time ries data from 1986 to 2005, the specific circumstances are shown in Table 1
Table 1：
| Y | X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 |
1986 | 110371 | 963 | 107507 个税怎么算的 | 264.4 | 1054 |
1987 | 柿子的功效与作用120191 | 1112 | 109300 | 276.6 | 1063 |
1988 | 112776 | 1366 | 111026 | 296.2 | 1075 |
1989 | 101339 | 1519 | 112704 | 377.9 | 1075 |
1990 | 93018 | 1644 | 114333 | 383.2 | 1075 |
1991 | 88128 | 1893 | 115823 | 352.2 | 1075 |
1992 | 94164 | 2311 | 117171 | 363.9 | 1053 |
1993 | 106771 | 2998 | 118517 | 420.1 | 1065 |
1994 | 127935 | 4044 | 119850 | 476.4 | 1080 |
1995 | 145443 | 5046 | 121121 | 519.6 | 1054 |
高考满分作文记叙文1996 | 163322 | 5846 | 122389 | 552.8 | 1032 |
1997 | 176353 | 6420 | 123626 | 576.8 | 端午节作文300字1020 |
1998 | 198885 | 6796 | 124761 | 571 | 1022 |
1999 | 233513 | 7159 | 125786 | 575 | 1071 |
2000 | 301239 | 7858 | 126743 | 595 | 1041 |
2001 | 393256 | 8622 | 127627 | 681 | 1225 |
2002 | 500980 | 9398 | 128453 | 770 | 激励学生的名言警句1396 |
2003 | 生源地助学贷款 651260 | 10542 | 129227 | 800 | 1552 |
2004 | 819896 | 12336 | 129988 | 827 | 1731 蒜蓉蒸扇贝 |
2005 | 978610 | 14040 | 130756 | 839 | 1792 |
| | | | | |
四、Model parameter estimation, inspection and correction
1. Model parameter estimation and its economic significance, statistical inference test
twoway(scatter Y X2)
twoway(scatter Y X3)
twoway(scatter Y X4)
graph twoway lfit y X1
graph twoway lfit y X2
graph twoway lfit y X3
graph twoway lfit y X4
Y = 59.22454816*X1- 7.158602346*X2- 366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4
（6.352288） （3.257541） （157.9402） （46.72256）
t= （9.323341） （-2.197548） （-2.322889） （13.29839）
+ 270775.151
（369252.8）
（0.733306）
R2=0.996048 Adjusted R-squared =0.994994 F=945.1415 DW=1.596173
Visible, X1, X2, X3, X4 t values are significant, indicating that the per capita GDP, the total population of registered urban unemployed population, the number of colleges and universities are the main factors affecting the total number of graduate students in school. Model coefficient of determination for 0.996048 amendments coefficient of determination of 0.994994, was relatively large, indicating high degree of model fit, while the F value of 945.1415, indicating that the model overall is significant。
In addition, the coefficient of X1, X4, in line with economic significance, but the coefficient of X2, X3, does not meet the economic significance, becau from an economic n, with the increa in the total population (X2), the total number of graduate students should be incread, and due to the increa in the number of unemployed, there will be
more and more people choo graduate school, so that the total number of unemployed and graduate students should be positively correlated. X2, X3 coefficient sign contrary to expectations, which may indicate the existence of vere multicollinearity.
2.计量经济学检验
The above table can be en to explain the positive correlation between the height of the variable X1 and X2, X3, X4, X2, X1, X3, between the highly positively correlated, showing that there is rious multicollinearity. Following amendment stepwi regression：
