A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the Degree of Master
Rearch on Conduction and Diffusion Mechanism of Construction Project Environmental Risks
Candidate : Wang Guangrong
Major: Early-Warning Emergency Management
Supervisor: Prof. She Lian
Huazhong University of Science and Technology
如何提高情商Wuhan, Hubei 430074, P.R.China
May ,2013
摘要
环境风险是建筑工程项目风险的重要来源。信息获取不完全、有限理性等是项目环境风险的根源。建筑
工程项目环境风险具有不确定性、隐蔽性、突发性、变异性、复杂性等特点。外部环境风险包括自然环境、经济环境、政治与政策环境、社会与文化环境等风险因素。诸风险源所蕴含的风险能量随项目建设过程不断积累，但因系统固有自组织、自适应、自调节能力，此时风险仍处于稳态均衡。当工程项目累积的风险能量超出其风险容量，通过外界因素的诱发，便会形成突发性的环境风险。在经济领域，超过风险容量的环境风险，会以风险流的形态在风险传导节点间，通过风险传导载体沿流程链、价值链、产业链等传导链在项目内外部动态转移。流动、传导的风险与外部环境发生耦合作用，转化为经济利益链条上复杂的风险。在生态系统和社会领域，最后失控的项目环境风险还可能通过放大效应、自然规律，以链式扩散、循环扩散、辐射扩散、混合扩散等四种方式，在风险扩散参与单元间扩散，使局部的建筑工程项目环境风险形成全局性的重大工程项目环境风险事件，造成严重经济损失、人员伤亡与生态危害。以外部环境为风险源向项目的扩散和以项目内部为风险源向环境的扩散呈现各自的特点和规律。因此，识别项目环境风险源，研究建筑工程项目环境风险的形成、转化、传导与扩散机理，对实现项目与自然、项目与人、项目与社会的协调与发展，具有重要意义。
关键词：建筑工程项目环境风险项目风险管理风险传导扩散机理
Abstract
The environmental risk is an important source of risk in construction projects. Incomplete access to i
nformation, and bounded rationality is the root of the project environmental risks. Environmental risks of construction projects have the characteristics of uncertainty, ambiguity, unexpected, variability, complexity, and so on.Risks in the external environment, includes the natural environment, economic environment, political and policy environment, social and cultural environment.
Though the energy in risks constantly accumulates with the construction process, the inherent lf-organizing, adaptive and lf-adjusting capability makes the risks still in steady-state equilibrium would be formed. In the economic fields, environmental risk exceeding the risk capacity, in the form of risk flow between the risk conduction nodes, through risk conduction carrier,along the risk transmission chain, dynamic transfers. Liquidity and transformed risks interact with the external environment, form larger more complex risks, and result in significant coupling effect. At last,in the ecosystem and social fields, the project environmental risks out of control may also through the interest chains and the laws of nature, diffu within a certain way ，such as chain, cycle, radiation and mixture. The local environmental risks of the project evolve the global projects environmental risk events. The project risk diffusion sourced the external environment and the environmental risk diffusion risk sourced project prent their respective characteristics and rules. Therefore, identificati
on of project environmental risk source and discussing the mechanism of formation, conversion, conduction and diffusion in projects environmental risks, can coordinate with nature, people and social development.
艾滋病的起源Key words:construction projects; environmental risk; project risk management; risk conduction; diffusion mechanism
目录
摘要.............................................................................................................. I Abstract ........................................................................................................... I I 1 绪论 .. (2)
1.1 研究背景与意义 (2)
1.2 研究的理论与现实意义 (3)
迎春花的养殖方法和注意事项
1.3 国内外研究现状 (4)
1.4 研究内容与方法 (7)
2 建筑工程项目环境风险基本体系 (9)
坚果类食物2.1 建筑工程项目风险 (9)
2.2 项目风险管理 (10)
2.3 建筑工程项目环境风险 (12)
3 建筑工程项目环境风险的形成机理 (15)
3.1 项目环境风险产生的原因 (15)
3.2 项目环境风险源 (16)好吃好玩
3.3 项目环境风险的累积与突发原理 (19)
4 建筑工程项目环境风险的传导机理 (23)
4.1 项目环境风险传导载体 (23)
4.2 项目环境风险能量流动 (25)
4.3 项目环境风险传导过程及其耦合效应 (27)
4.4 项目环境风险传导路径 (29)
5 建筑工程项目环境风险的扩散机理 (31)
5.1 项目环境风险扩散要素 (31)
5.2 项目环境风险扩散方式 (33)
物上请求权5.3 项目环境风险扩散路径 (36)
6 总结与展望 (39)
6.1 论文的主要工作与不足之处 (39)
6.2 需要进一步研究的问题 (39)
致谢 (40)
注释 (41)李嘉欣整容
参考文献 (43)
附录1 (47)
附录2 (48)
企业价值评估方法
