Why do some great ideas just fail to scale?
为何有些好点子无法推广？
黛玉葬花是第几回
Andy Warhol put it best. “You can be watching TV and e Coca-Cola, and you know that the President drinks Coke, Liz Taylor drinks Coke, and just think, you can drink Coke, too,” he declared in 1975. “A Coke is a Coke and no amount of money can get you a better Coke than the one the bum on the corner is drinking. All the Cokes are the same and all the Cokes are good.”
安迪•沃霍尔(Andy Warhol)说得最在理。他在1975年宣称：“你在电视上看到可口可乐，你知道总统喝可乐，丽兹•泰勒(Liz Taylor)喝可乐，只要你想，你也能喝可乐。可乐就只是可乐，花再多的钱，你喝的可乐也不会比街角流浪汉喝的可乐更好喝。所有可乐都一样，所有可乐都好喝。”
That is true not just for Coca-Cola or, for that matter, Campbell’s soup or Brillo pads. One could say much the same about a Hollywood movie, Gmail, Ikea bookshelves, Microsoft Office, the iPhone, the Uber app, a Big Mac, a Moderna vaccine shot and YouTube.
高中题库
这个道理不但适用于可口可乐，还适用于金宝(Campbell's)牌汤罐头或Brillo牌百洁布。除此之外，这个道理基本也适用于好莱坞电影、Gmail、宜家(Ikea)书架、微软Office办公软件(Microsoft Office)、苹果iPhone手机、优步(Uber)应用、麦当劳巨无霸汉堡(Big Mac)、Moderna疫苗和YouTube。
If Warhol were still here to opine, he might object that you can splash out on a private movie screening or pay for a premium subscription to YouTube. True enough. But the broad principle applies: in the unlovely jargon of Silicon Valley, the products and rvices all “scale”.
如果沃霍尔还能发表意见，他也许会提出异议，认为你能够花大价钱在私人影院观影，或者订阅YouTube高级会员。的确如此。然而大原则是适用的：用硅谷不招人待见的行话来讲，这些产品和服务都可以“规模化”。
But not everything does. Rearchers and policy wonks have long studied pilot schemes such as criminal rehabilitation programmes, public health initiatives or innovative schools. They dread the familiar phenomenon of the pilot delivering nsational results, only to fad
e at a larger scale. This dismaying tendency was called “voltage drop” by the psychiatrist Amy Kilbourne and her colleagues in 2007.
但并非所有事情都是如此。长期以来，研究人员和政策专家一直在研究试行计划，比如罪犯改造项目、公共卫生倡议或创新学校。他们担心会碰到熟悉的情景——试行计划大放光彩，却在推广后黯然失色。2007年，精神病学家埃米•基尔伯恩(Amy Kilbourne)和她的同事将这种令人感到沮丧的趋势称为“电压下降”。
The economist John List has been exploring the caus of this voltage drop, first in a 2019 paper with Omar Al-Ubaydli and Dana Suskind, then in a recent book, The Voltage Effect. List is well qualified for the task, with a mix of theoretical, policy and Silicon Valley experience. He is admired for conducting realistic experiments to shed light on economic theory and policy; he t up a pre-school in Chicago with the aim of “establishing a model that other school districts around the world might some day be able to implement”; and he is chief economist at Lyft, a position he previously held at Uber, two of the companies attempting to scale the process of getting driven around.
我的兴趣爱好作文
斯德哥尔摩症候群经济学家约翰•利斯特(John List)一直在探索“电压下降”的原因。他先是在2019年就这个主题发表了一篇论文（奥马尔•奥贝迪(Omar Al-Ubaydli)和达纳•苏斯金德(Dana Suskind)为联合作者），后来又在其最近的著作《电压效应》(The Voltage Effect)中探讨了这个主题。利斯特拥有丰富的理论、政策和硅谷经验，完全可以胜任这项任务。他通过现实实验揭示了经济理论和政策，并因此受到钦佩；他还在芝加哥建立了一所学前教育学校，目的是“打造世界其他学区有朝一日能够实施的一种模式”；除此之外，他还是打车软件Lyft的首席经济学家，此前他曾在优步担任该职位，这两家公司都在尝试扩大驾车出行的规模。
So why does the voltage drop for so many promising ideas? One common problem is that the original effect was illusory. Consider a famous experiment, conducted over 20 years ago by psychologists Sheena Iyengar and Mark Lepper, in which customers in a high-end supermarket were offered free samples of jam from a choice of either six or 24 flavours. The wider choice was dramatically demotivating. Ten times as many people bought jam after being shown the smaller range.
所以，为什么很多有望实现的想法的“电压”会下降？一个共同的问题是，它们最初的效果
题李凝幽居都是虚幻的。20多年前，心理学家希娜• 延加(Sheena Iyengar)和马克•莱珀(Mark Lepper)进行了一项著名的实验。在实验中，一家高档超市的顾客可以从6种或24种口味中选择免费的果酱样品。更广泛的选择范围严重打击了人们的购物积极性。而在缩小选择范围后，购买果酱的人有十倍之多。
中国地理区划It is one of the most famous results in psychology; it has also proved rather difficult to repeat in follow-up experiments. Perhaps the effect is completely non-existent, the result of a statistical fluke. Or perhaps the effect exists but with nothing like the force exhibited in the original experiment. Does anyone riously believe your local supermarket would ll 10 times as much produce if only it simplified its product line?掰手腕技巧
这是心理学最著名的实验结果之一，而事实证明后续试验很难重现此结果。也许这种影响完全不存在，只是统计上的偶然结果。也许这种影响确实存在，但与上述那项最初的实验中体现的影响不同。真的有人相信只要简化生产线，当地超市就能卖出10倍数量的产品吗？
Another source of voltage drop is when the original effect does not generali beyond un
usual circumstances. My favourite example is the Arch Deluxe, a gourmet hamburger launched by McDonald’s in 1996 with a marketing fanfare. The fast-food giant had every reason to expect success, becau focus groups loved the Arch Deluxe’s bakery-style rolls, peppered bacon and stone-ground mustard-mayo dressing.
