乌克兰和俄罗斯作文英语带翻译
The ceafire holds uneasily, but tension in easternUkraine will still trouble the governments in both Kievand Moscow。
停火维持不易，东乌紧张局势仍困扰乌俄双方政府
THE war in eastern Ukraine has quietened, for now. Its disparate factions have as much reasonto keep fighting as to put away their guns. But a ceafire signed on September 5th in Minsk isso far mostly holding. Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, does not want to fight anunwinnable war against Russia, which is the situation he would have been in had he presd onwith Kiev's “anti-terrorist operation” in the east. His Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, ishappy to e Donetsk and Luhansk turn into breakaway territories that can rve asinstruments against Kiev.
发生在东乌克兰地区的战争暂时停止，但内部纷争依旧。它内部完全不同的派别有许多原因继续战争，停火也一样。但是9月5日在明斯克签署的停火协议迄今为止仍在生效。在东部强
行推行基辅的“反分裂运动”,让乌克兰总理佩特罗·波罗申科并不打算在这样的情况下与俄罗斯展开一场毫无胜算的战争。它的俄罗斯伙伴，弗拉迪米尔·普京则非常高兴看到顿尼茨克与卢甘斯克转向领土分离，并且表示可以提供例如武器一类的支持来反抗基辅方面。
From the outt the Kremlin has been advocating a permanent ceafire, not fromhumanitarian impuls but becau it likes the idea of frozen conflict-zones in the east ofUkraine. The political mood in Kiev spurred Mr Poroshenko to press on as long as Ukrainianforces had momentum. But the incursion by Russian troops with heavy weapons in lateAugust showed that Mr Putin would not allow Kiev a military victory. Without direct NATO aid,Mr Poroshenko felt forced to make a deal.
从克里姆林宫提倡永久停火开始，并非出于推行人道主义角度，因为这是一个冻结乌克兰东部战争区的计划。基辅的政治环境刺激波罗申科，只要乌克兰人民武装力量露出苗头，他就要去镇压。但是俄罗斯重型武装军队在八月末的入侵表示了普京不会允许基辅方面的军事胜利。没有北约组织直接的指示，波罗申科处理起来力不从心。
In the short term this will em like a victory for Moscow. It has a mechanism to influence
Ukrainian politics, much as it has in Moldova and Georgia. For as long as the status of Donetskand Luhansk are undefined Ukraine cannot possibly join NATO. Mr Putin will have noted thathis inrtion of regular Russian soldiers met criticism but little action from abroad. BarackObama declined to call it an invasion, but rather “a continuation of what's been taking placefor months now”. The European Union will apply new sanctions next week, but describes themas “reversible”, perhaps to show that it is reluctant to isolate Russia. This week Russia'sGazprom cut gas supplies to Poland in an effort to stop resupply back to Ukraine.
在短期内来看这似乎是莫斯科当局的胜利，它用一种特别的技巧去影响乌克兰政局，很大程度上如同它对摩尔多瓦与格鲁尼亚所做的一样。长期以来顿尼茨克与卢甘斯克的情势都不明确，乌克兰不可能加入北约。普京将会注意他插手俄罗斯正规军，遭到了一小部分国家的批评。奥巴马拒绝称其为一场“入侵”，而是“最近几个月正在发生的一切都是一种扩张”。欧盟下周将会启动新的制裁，但把俄罗斯描述成“叛徒”，也许是为了表示他们隔离俄罗斯是无奈之举。这周俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司切断了对波兰的天然气供应，以防止他们二次供应给乌克兰。
The war has felt distant to most Russians. State television has manipulated its narrative ofthe conflict to soothe viewers' feelings of inadequacy and imperial nostalgia, while talkingup Western plots and machinations. A poll by the Levada Centre found that 77% of thosurveyed said America was the main initiator of Kiev's operations in the east. The cret burialsof Russian paratroopers killed in Ukraine, only to be disavowed by the Russian state, haveproved uncomfortable. But compared with the short-lived ason of protest three years ago,Russian society ems docile and unthreatening. Another Levada poll found only 8% willingto join protests if they started, against 21% in 2011.
这场战争对于绝大多数俄罗斯人来说是十分遥远的。当在发生西方阴谋论的时候，州立电视台通过控制电视台对于争执的描述，去安慰观众们的不完全帝国主义怀旧情结。勒瓦达中心的一项民意调查发现，77%的被调查民众说美国是基辅在东部活动的主要发起者。被俄罗斯政府所否认的，隐瞒了伞兵在乌克兰遭遇不测的消息，已经引起了民众的不满。但是和三年前短命的抗议相比，俄罗斯社会看起来十分温顺不成威胁。另一项勒瓦达民意测试发现如果俄罗斯和乌克兰开战，只有8%的民众会加入抗议活动，与2011年的21%相反。
Yet Mr Putin's adventurism and revanchism will create new dangers for his regime. A fallingrouble and a Kremlin-impod ban on food imports from America and Europe means thatinflation could hit 8% next year. That may spur a level of social discontent which the waritlf has not. Existing sanctions, and the prospect of more to come, are dragging downRussia's already faltering economy. Morgan Stanley forecasts a recession in 2015. Rosneft,Russia's biggest oil producer, has asked the government for $40 billion to refinance its debts.Global oil prices have dipped below $100 a barrel, whereas the Russian budget is calibrated tobalance at a price between $110 and $117 a barrel. Plugging tho holes will be costly: Mr Putinmust make awkward choices over what interests to offend. His likely respon to economichardship will be to blame Russia's enemies abroad for starting a new cold war.
但普京的冒险主义和复仇主义将会给俄罗斯争权带来新的危险。贬值的卢布和克里姆林宫对从美国和欧洲进口食品的禁令也意味着通货膨胀可能在明年达到8%。这可能会进一步刺激社会不满的程度，而战争本身却不会。现有的制裁以及未来前景将会拖累俄罗斯早已摇摇欲坠的经济。摩根史坦利投资公司预测俄罗斯在2015年将会有一场经济衰退。俄罗斯最
大的石油生产商——俄罗斯石油公司，向政府索要4亿美元来偿还债务。全球石油价格已经降至100美元一桶，而俄罗斯却通过将每桶油价调整到110美元至117美元之间来平衡财政。堵住这些缺口耗资巨大：普京必须要在得罪什么样的利益之间做一个尴尬的决定。而他对经济困难的回应将会被国外反俄势力指责为要开始新一轮冷战。
In Kiev Mr Poroshenko faces his own difficulties—which may materiali well before Mr Putin's. Hesays he will introduce a law next week to create a “special status” for Donetsk and Luhansk.Many questions remain, however: not least, whether Ukraine will manage to regain controlover its eastern border with Russia, a decisive factor in asssing if the pro-Russianinsurgency can ever be pacified. All sides disagree over how much territory should fall underMr Poroshenko's lf-rule provision. Kiev es only areas under rebel control—around a thirdof the two regions—with this status, but the rebels' leaders lay claim to the whole of Donetskand Luhansk. Such issues will weigh on Ukraine's parliamentary election next month. YuriyYakymenko of the Razumkov Centre, a Kiev-bad think-tank, says that, though most voterssupport peace in principle, the fate of Mr Poroshenko and his political block will come down tothe question, “Peace at what price?”
