二丁颗粒Putting Taobao's Size and Growth in Perspective
Eric Jackson,Forbes,2011(06)
I’ve written recently about Taobao’s significant size and growth and how that potentially is going under-appreciate d by Yahoo!’s (YHOO) investors.
襁褓的读音I wanted to provide some more points of comparison between Taobao and the two Chine Internet behemoths: Tencent and Baidu (BIDU).
As I said before, I estimate that Taobao did RMB 5 billion in revenues in 2010. The majority of this revenues (80%) came from advertising vs. transaction revenue (although this will likely change greatly in the years to come).
Tencent by comparison did RMB 19.6 billion last year. However, of this, only RMB 1.4 billion came from advertising. The rest of their revenues came from value-added rvices (e.g., games) they sold to their urs.
So, Taobao’s ad revenues are already 4x the size of Tencent — and keep in mind that Tencent had a CAGR of 51% for its ad revenues in the last 4 years.
子夫Starting in 2009, Taobao actually surpasd Sina (SINA) in terms of market share of Chine online advertising. This lead has only incread. According to iRearch, Taobao had a 9.4% share of the Chine online ad market as of Q3 in 2010. Sina’s share was 5.6%.
Let’s compare Taobao to th e other king of the Chine Internet: Baidu. Baidu did $1.22 billion in revenues in 2010 (or almost RMB 8 billion). So, Taobao is 62.5% the size of Baidu today. Applying this of percentage to Baidu’s market capitalization implies that Taobao on its own is worth $31.25 billion.
Online ads matter. The total size of the Chine Internet ad market in 2010 was RMB 36 billion. I estimate it will keep growing at 50% annualized rates and be an RMB 80 billion market by 2012. It’s not unreasonable to expect to e Taobao keep growing its share of this market to 14% by then. With that and RMB appreciation, Taobao could do nearly RM
B 11 billion in ad revenue by 2012 (or $1.9 billion).
But transactions will be the most exciting part of the Taobao growth in the years ahead. Most of their money from transactions with come from business-to-consumer (B2C) sales, rather than from consumers-to-consumers (C2C). I mentioned in my earlier article that
Taobao had launched to much fanfare in November of last year. The take rates on Tmall are currently just under 4% for Taobao. They hope to grow this over time, along with GMV.
In order to grow GMV, Taobao needs more merchants. There’s recent data to suggest that this is happening.
At the beginning of March, Tmall listed 32,000 merchants lling their wares on Tmall.
As of yesterday, the number of merchants listed on Taobao was over 36,000. This is 75% annualized growth in the number of merchants lling stuff on Tmall. We don’t know exac
t details on average lling price or GMV as the company is still private, but the raw number in merchants is indicative of how quickly GMV appears to be growing at the company.
经济学的思维方式
Any way you calculate it, Taobao has massive ad revenue and transaction revenue possibilities ahead of them in the next 5 years. Their size and growth — when compared to Tencent and Baidu — are even more impressive. This size relative to the giants suggests a huge unappreciated value for Taobao.
Ever since David Einhorn announced he was a believer in this hidden value story earlier this week in his letter to partners, the rest of the market is starting to come around to Taobao’s and Yahoo!’s hidden value. 关于守时的名言
淘宝的规模和未来展望
Eric Jackson,《福布斯》,2011(06)
农家生活我最近写了关于淘宝的显著规模和增长以及可能会被低估了的雅虎( YHOO )的投资者。我
想提供一些更多的两个中国互联网巨头之间的比较:腾讯和百度( BIDU )。正如我之前
所说的,我估计,淘宝在2010年取得5元十亿的收入,大部分这种收入( 80%)来自于广告与交易收入(尽管这可能会在未来数年大幅改变来)。通过对比,腾讯去年取得人民币196十亿。只不过,只有1.4十亿人民币来自广告收入。他们的收入的其余部分来自出售给他们的用户的增值服务(如游戏)。所以,淘宝的广告收入已经是4倍的腾讯。并且,腾讯的广
告收入在过去4年的复合年增长率为51%。从2009年开始,淘宝在中国网络广告市场份额方面竟然超过了新浪( SINA)在中国网络广告市场的份额。根据艾瑞咨询,中国在线广告
教师个人成长总结市场的第三季度,淘宝网在2010年有9.4 %的份额,而新浪的份额为5.6 %。让我们比较淘宝对中国互联网的其他巨头:百度。百度在2010年(或几乎十亿人民币)有了十亿的收入。淘宝今天相当于是62.5%百度的大小。换算百分比百度的市值这意味着淘宝自身的价
值为31.25十亿。
抗战胜利纪念日关于在线广告方面,中国互联网广告市场在2010年的总规模为人民币元36十亿。我估计它会继续增长50 %,年化率和是80元十亿的市场,到2012年,期望看到淘宝上继续增长其份额这
一市场的14 %是合理的。有了这一点,人民币升值,淘宝会在2012年取得近人民币110十亿的广告收入。
但交易额将成为淘宝在未来几年的经济增长中最精彩的部分。他们的大部分收入来自于企业对消费者(B2C )的销售方面,而不是从消费者对消费者( C2C )。我在以前的文章中提到,淘宝已经在去年11月大张旗鼓的推出了他们的。目前,淘宝商城的开通率略低于淘宝4 %。但这种增长将随着时间的推移继续增长着。为了成长,淘宝需要更多的客商。还有最近的数据表明,这种情况正在发生。
在三月初,在淘宝商城天猫上有32,000商家在销售。截至昨日,在淘宝商家上浏览的人数超过36,000 。这是商家在淘宝商城卖东西的数量的年增长率的75%。因为该公司仍然是私有的,所以我们不知道在平均售价的具体细节,但在商家的数量上是快速增长着的。
你用任何方式计算都可能得出,在未来5年,入驻淘宝,并在淘宝上投入大量广告,那么将可能有大量的交易和收入。相比腾讯和百度,其规模和增长的速度更是令人印象深刻。淘宝拥有巨大的价值所在。
自从大卫·艾因霍恩本周早些时候说淘宝是个隐藏的价值故事,一个读者在他给合作伙伴的信中说道过,市场的其余部分也开始显示淘宝的和雅虎的潜在价值。
