ACCA P3 关键模型汇总
汇编：詹也
浙江财经大学
2014年
快速浏览法
Part A（战略位势）
1.1The strategy lens（战略维度）
2.Strategy as design.
The design lens views strategy as the deliberate positioning of an organisation as the result of some ‘ra
tional, analytical, structured and directive process’. It is the responsibility of top management to plan the destiny of the organisation. Lower levels of management carry out the operational actions required by the strategy.
The design lens is associated with objective tting and a plan for moving the organisation towards the objectives.
1Strategy as experience.
The experience lens views strategy development as the combination of individual and collective experience together with the taken-for-granted assumptions of cultural influences. Strategy as experience ems innately conrvative. It could work well when a small incremental change is required within a stable environment. However, this view may become a major barrier to developing innovative strategies as experience may become rigid.
2Strategy as ideas.
It has a central role for innovation and new ideas. It es strategy as emerging
from the variety and diversity in an organisation. It is as likely to come from the bottom of the organis
ation as from the top. Conquently, the organization should foster conditions that allow ideas to emerge and to be considered for inclusion in
a ‘mainstream strategy’.
多出一半打一字谜
1.2PESTEL
应用范围：当题目要求做“environmental analysis”、“analysis of the macro-environmental”或“analysis of the position of company，都可以用这个模型。
写作方式：
李夜兰1.开头写一段“The PESTEL framework can be ud to analy the macro-environment. It considers political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, legal and environmental forces that affect the company”。
2. 根据案例内容，分别分析这6个宏观因素，以及各个因素如何影响企业的战略。
3. 根据分值，再加一个“summary”。
注意事项：全国征兵网兵役登记
1.根据题目给出的信息量，不需要对这6个方面的因素面面俱到（有时候题目
并没有提及某一方面的信息）。当然，如果时间充裕，可以自己推测一下2.PESTEL模型只关注企业的外部情境，不适合做企业的内部资源和能力分析。
昭示是什么意思
1.3Porter’s diamond（波特的“钻石模型”）
2010 June (Q 2，10分)；2013 Dec (QA3，10分)
应用范围：适合分析国家或产业的竞争优势。
Porter’s diamond model identifies four main determinants of national advantage. The four main determinants are:
1.The nation’s position in factor conditions, such as skilled labour or infrastructure,
necessary for firms to compete in a given industry.
2.The nature of the home demand conditions for the industry’s product or rvice.
Home demand influences economies of scale, shapes the rate and character of improvement and innovation.
3.The prence of related and supporting industries can provide a good local
supply chain and hence quality and cost advantages that are internationally competitive.
4.The firm strategy, structure and rivalry concerns the conditions in the nation
governing how companies are created, organid and managed. It also considers the nature of dom
estic rivalry and the role of government.
1.4Scenarios planning（情境分析）
分析思路：
1. 解释什么是情境分析：A scenario is a detailed and consistent view of how the business environment of an organisation might develop in the future. Scenarios can relate to macro factors such as political changes, economic growth or interest rates, or industry factors such as changes in input prices or entry of a new competitor.
2. 根据题目给出的信息，分析宏观环境的变化将如何影响企业的战略。党员生活作风
做菜心得体会
1.55 Forces Model（波特的“5力模型”）
应用范围：适合分析企业的竞争地位，经常配合PESTEL模型一起用（取决于分值）。
The 5 Forces Model identifies four main determinants of market competition that the firm faces.
1.Threat of new entrants. Barriers to entry will reduce competition by deterring
companies from joining an industry.
2.Threat of substitutes. The prence of substitutes will reduce profits becau
customers can switch if prices ri
3.Bargaining power of buyers. Factors such as relative size and dependence will
affect the ability of buyers to drive down prices.
4.Bargaining power of suppliers. similarly, if suppliers in an industry have strong
negotiating power, the price of inputs will be driven up and profits reduced
5.Competition and rivalry. Inten competition will reduce profits. This may result
from slow growing or declining markets, excess capacity, barriers to exit and other factors
1.6Forecasting method
linear regression：2011 Dec (Q4)
Time ries：Pilot 2011 (Q3，12分)
两者结合：2013 Dec (Q2a，15分）
形容风景的诗句1.6.1 linear regression
linear regression defines the equation of a straight line that ‘best’fits the data by minimising the squares of deviations of actual values from the mean. In least squares analysis, one t of data is defined as the independent variable (x –in this ca, time) and the other t of data, sales, is defined as y –the dependent variable.
一般要求解释方程以及指标的意义，如：
●The positive value of b suggests that the overall sales trend is upwards.
●The correlation coefficient ‘r’shows the strength of the statistical relationship
between the two variables. e.g. the value of r is 0.253, which suggests that the two variables are weakly connected.
吴泰伯
●The coefficient of determination (r2) shows that xxx% of the variation in sales (y)
is due to the passage of time (x). Low coefficients of correlation (and
determination) are usual when data is widely scattered around the mean and/or are related in a non-linear fashion.
注意：linear regression has little practical u when the data pattern is caud by large
