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毕生难忘携手合作 推动亚洲经济崛起——在博鳌亚洲论坛2009星座知识年年会午餐会上的讲话 曾培炎
1十年前的这个时候，经历亚洲金融危机的各国，正在经济恢复的道路上艰难前行。那次危机引发了人们对亚洲未来的思考，应运而生的博鳌亚洲论坛为区内各国高层对话建立了一个有益的平台。眼下发生的这场危机，与亚洲金融危机相比范围更广、程度更深，也使经济全球化遇到了挫折。但我相信，只要经过各国共同有效的努力，危机终将克服，全球化趋势不可逆转。今天我们相聚在这里，就是探讨如何应对危机，吸取挫折的教训，建立新的国际经济秩序，促进世界经济发展更加稳定、经济结构更加合理、南北发展更加平衡。
2受金融危机影响，全球消费、投资、贸易、生产、就业等出现萎缩，世界经济仍在衰退，今年全年可能出现负增长。在全球化条件下，各国经济你中有我、我中有你，一荣俱荣、一损俱损。这就需要各主要经济体之间加强合作，开展经济对策讨论，推进政策协调，引导市场行为，从而带动世界经济尽早走出危机。
3危机发生以来，各经济体陆续出台了一系列刺激方案，其效果值得期待。需要注意的是，通货膨胀与通货紧缩有时并不遥远。目前，流动性紧张的局面未见明显逆转，针对经济运行面临通货紧缩的压力，确有必要采取超常规的、更富有创新的财政货币政策。在各国加大救
见数助力度，对抗通货紧缩和流动性枯竭的同时，不能忽视可能引发通货膨胀的风险。美联储定量宽松的货币政策大规模购买美国国债，增加了财政赤字转化为通货膨胀的压力，引起各国对在美巨额投资的担忧。为了让世界放心，美国应当健全国债收益与通货膨胀挂钩的机制，确保国债保值增值，保护亚洲国家在内的国际投资者的利益。同时，这也有利于美国政府继续获得外国资金支持，促进美国尽快走出危机。
4 刚刚结束的G20伦敦峰会，就增加国际金融机构资源、加强国际金融监管、帮助发展中国家等取得了积极务实的成果，向国际社会传递了共同战胜危机的信心和意愿。虽然与会各国对达成的共识表示了原则赞成，但在实际落实中仍有很大难度。特别是国际金融体系改革才刚刚拉开帷幕，很多根本性、体制性的难点有待突破，国际金融体系累积的巨大系统性风险尚未化解。国际社会应当坚持不懈地构建全球金融新秩序，积极发挥国际金融组织在维护国际金融稳定、加强金融监管方面的作用，提高发展中国家在国际金融体制的话语权，认真落实已达成的全球金融监管措施，推动国际储备货币体系多元化。各储备货币发行国应当承担起相应的国际责任，维护币值稳定，防范竞相贬值带来的汇率战。
红豆杉盆景
5进入新世纪以来，中国的经济增长大部分时间保持在10%以上。严峻的国际环境也对中国
产生了不利影响，去年第四季度经济增速下降到6.8%，今年一季度为6.1%。虽然增速仍在下滑，但由于一系列扩大内需政策效果逐步显现，下滑幅度缩小，增速趋稳。一季度固定资产投资增长28.8%，高于去年水平，预计投资增长将在财政货币政策作用下继续加快；社会消费品零售总额实际增长15.9%，同比增速有所提高，但短期内消费需求难以做到大幅增长；进出口总额同比下降了24.9%，在主要经济体尚未复苏的情况下，进出口难有大的起色。此外，影响中国经济的不确定、不稳定因素还较多。未来中国经济增长很大程度上取决于扩大内需，投资的增加将扮演重要角色。扩大投资要注意保民生、保就业和产业结构调整相结合，加快形成实物工作量，拉动即期需求。扩大消费的主要动力在农村和城市中等收入群体，我们的政策措施应继续向这方面倾斜。我相信，中国经济增长将为世界经济复苏和亚洲经济稳定发挥重要作用。
6女士们，先生们！世界经济的发展总是波浪式前进、螺旋式上升，危机总会过去，复苏必将来临。但是不论发达国家还是发展中国国家，在应对危机时都应当吸取以往教训，不能再以牺牲资源环境为代价换取经济一时增长，而是应当坚持可持续发展的科学理念，提倡绿色生产方式和生活方式，推行集约发展和清洁发展。我们期待，当世界进入新的增长周期时，不再是原有经济周期的简单重复，而是实现绿色的复苏。
JOIN HANDS TO CONTRIBUTE TO ASIA’S ECONOMIC RISE
SPEECH BY MR. ZENG PEIYAN AT THE LUNCHEON OF THE BOAO FORUM FOR ASIA ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2009
(18 APRIL 2009)
1. Ten years ago this time, the countries battered by the Asian financial crisis were struggling toward economic recovery. That crisis was thought-provoking as people began to pore over the future of Asia and the Boao Forum for Asia, created shortly after the crisis, offered a uful platform for high-level dialogues among countries in the region. The ongoing crisis is wider and deeper than the Asian financial crisis and has dealt a blow to economic globalization. However, I am confident that as long as all the countries make effective efforts, the crisis will be overcome and the trend toward globalization will not be reverd. We meet at the Forum to discuss ways to tackle the crisis, learn hard lessons from tbacks and put in place a new international economic order in an effort to make world economic growth more stable, global economic structure more reasonable and North-South development more balanced.
2. As impacted by the financial crisis, global consumption, investment, trade, production and employment have contracted, and the world economy, which is still in recession, may record negative full-year growth this year. Globalization has made economies cloly-interconnected and countries will ri or fall together. This calls for stronger cooperation among major economies to discuss economic respons, advance policy coordination, guide market behavior and help the world economy out of the crisis as soon as possible.
夸张的词语
3. Since the outbreak of the crisis, economies around the world have introduced a range of stimulus plans, which are expected to deliver encouraging effects. It is noteworthy that sometimes inflation and deflation are not far from each other. At prent, tight liquidity has yet to be notably reverd and in respon to the deflationary pressures, it is necessary to take supra-conventional and more creative fiscal and monetary policies indeed. However, as countries are stepping up bailout, combating deflation and addressing draining liquidity, inflationary risks must not be ignored. The Federal Rerve’s massive purcha of US government bonds bad on its quantitative easing monetary policy has added the pressures of turning budget deficit into inflation. This has 写作的好处
become an issue of concern among countries over their heavy investment in the US. To assure the world, the US should improve the mechanism of pegging government bonds earnings to inflation to ensure the good value and value increa of its government bonds and protect the interests of Asian countries and other international investors. Meanwhile, it will help the US Government obtain continued foreign funding support and pave the way for an early recovery of the US economy.
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4. The just concluded G20 London Summit produced positive and practical outcomes on strengthening the resources ba of international financial institutions, tightening international financial regulation and helping developing countries, and showed to the international community the confidence and willingness on jointly overcoming the crisis. Although the participating countries agreed in principle with the connsus of the summit, the implementation will still be very challenging. The curtain of the reform of the international financial system has just been raid, many fundamental and systematic challenges have yet to be addresd and the enormous systematic risks that built up in the international financial system remain unresolved. The international community should
make unremitting efforts to build a new global financial order, bring into full play the roles of international financial institutions in upholding international financial stability and strengthening financial regulation, give developing countries greater say in the international financial system, implement in real earnest the agreed global financial regulatory and supervisory measures and diversify international rerve currency system. The rerve currency countries should take up their due international responsibilities, keep their currency value stable and prevent exchange rate war incurred by competitive devaluation.
5. For much of the period since the beginning of the new century, the Chine economy has been expanding at an annual rate of over 10 percent. But the tough international environment today has also made adver impact on China. Our economic growth slowed down to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and further declined to 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year. Despite the dropping growth rate, as the effects of our policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are increasingly felt, the slowdown is decelerating and the economy is expanding more steadily. The fixed ast investment in t
he first quarter of this year grew 28.8 percent, an increa higher than that of last year, and the investment is on track to continue to ri faster as the fiscal and monetary policies take effect. The retail sales of consumer goods expanded 15.9 percent, which is faster than that of the corresponding period of last year, but the consumer demand can hardly increa significantly in the short term. The volume of import and export dropped 24.9 percent year on year and will not bounce back sharply pending the recovery of other major economies. In addition, the uncertainties and destabilizing factors affecting the Chine economy are many. China’s future economic growth will, to a large extent, hinge upon boosting domestic demand, and investment increa will have an important role to play. In scaling up investment, the need to improve people’s well-being, support jobs and restructure industries should be taken into account, and it is imperative to act promptly to get policies and programs implemented on the ground to drive up immediate demand. The major drivers behind boosting consumption are rural areas and urban middle-income groups, which should remain as priorities on our policy agenda. I am confident that the Chine economic growth will make important contribution to world economic recovery and Asian economic stability.
