⼆氧化碳的益处
The benefits of carbon dioxide
⼆氧化碳的益处
死神傻了
Global greening may save more lives and forests than warming costs
⽐起变暖之害，全球绿化有可能拯救更多⽣命和森林。
My Times Column on the surprisingly large benefits of carbon dioxide emissions:
我在的《泰晤⼠报》上的专栏分析了⼆氧化碳排放所带来的令⼈震惊的巨⼤好处：
France’s leading television weather forecaster, Philippe Verdier, was taken off
air last week for writing that there are “positive conquences” of climate change. Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of mathematical physics and astrophysics at the Institute of Advanced Study in Princeton, declared last week that the non-climatic effects of carbon dioxide are “enormously beneficial”. Patrick Moore, a founder of Greenpeace, said in a lecture last week that we should “celebrate carbon dioxide”.
Philippe Verdier，法国电视天⽓预报员中的佼佼者，因写到⽓候变化具有“积极效应”⽽于上周被调离播报岗位。Freeman Dyson，普林斯顿⼤学⾼等研究院数学物理学和天体物理学荣休教授，上周称，⼆氧化碳的⾮⽓候影响“极为有益”。Patrick Moore，绿⾊和平组织创始⼈之⼀，在上周的⼀次讲座中说，我们应该“为⼆氧化碳⽽欢庆”。
Are the three prominent but very different people right? Should we at least consider riously, before we go into a massive international negotiation bad on the assumption that carbon dioxide is bad, whether we might be mistaken? Most politicians today consider such a view to be so beyond the pale as to be mad or possibly criminal.
这三位杰出⽽各不相同的⼈物说的对吗？基于⼆氧化碳有害的假设⽽展开⼤规模国际谈判之前，我们⾄少应该严肃地思考⼀下，有没有可能我们是错的？今天，⼤多数政客都将这视作⽆⽐出格、近乎疯狂，甚或是有罪的观点。
Yet the benefits of carbon dioxide emissions are not even controversial in scientific circles. As Richard Betts of the Met Office tweeted last week, the “CO2 fertilisation effect” — the fact that rising emissions are making plants grow better — is not news and is discusd in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.然⽽，在科学圈⾥，⼆氧化碳排放的好处连“颇可争议”
都谈不上。正如英国⽓象局的Richard Betts上周的⼀条推⽂所说的那样，“CO2的施肥效应”——即逐渐增加的排放量使得植物⽣长得更好——并不是新闻，⽽且曾在政府间⽓候变化专门委员会的报告中得到讨论。
The satellite data show that there has been roughly a 14 per cent increa in the amount of green vegetation on the planet since 1982, that this has happened in all ecosystems, but especially in arid tropical areas, and that it is in large part due to man-made carbon dioxide emissions.
卫星数据显⽰，⾃1982年以来，地球上的绿⾊植被总量⼤约增长了14%。这种增长出现于所有⽣态系统中，但在⼲旱的热带地区最明显。并且，⼤部分增长主要源于⼈为的⼆氧化碳排放。
Last week also saw the publication of a comprehensive report on “Carbon Dioxide — the Good News” for the Global Warming Policy Foundation by the independent American scientist Indur Goklany, to which Freeman Dyson wrote the foreword. The report was thoroughly peer-reviewed, as was almost all of the voluminous literature it cited. (Full disclosure: I helped edit the report.)
上周，更有⼀份关于“⼆氧化碳——⼤好消息”的很全⾯的报告出炉，这是由美国独⽴科学家Indur Goklany向全球变暖政策基⾦会（GWPF）提供的，并由Freeman Dyson作序。该报告经过了充分的同⾏评议，报告所引⽤的巨量⽂献也⼏乎全都如此。（⼤曝光：我参
与编辑了该报告。）
11 Goklany points out that whereas the benefits of carbon dioxide are huge and here now, the harms are still speculative and almost all in the distant future. There has so far been — as the IPCC confirms — no measurable increa in droughts, floods or storms worldwide, no reversal in the continuing rapid decline in deaths due to inct-borne dias, and no measurable impacts of the continuing very slow ri in global a levels.
Goklany指出，⼆氧化碳的好处不但巨⼤，⽽且就在眼前，其害处则仍是推测性的，且⼏乎全部都只会出现于遥远的未来。迄今为⽌——如政府间⽓候变化专门委员所确认的——世界范围内的⼲旱、洪涝或暴⾬并未出现可衡量的增加，⾍媒传染病致死病例持续快速减少的现象并未逆转，全球海平⾯极为缓慢的持续上升也并没有产⽣可衡量的影响。
In stark terms, Bangladesh is still gaining land from dimentation in its rivers’deltas, has suffered no increa in cyclones, but has benefited from reduced malnourishment to the tune of billions of dollars from higher crop yields as a result of carbon dioxide emissions.
粗暴点说，孟加拉国现在仍然不断从其河流三⾓洲的沉积中获得⼟地，并未因⼤⽓⽓旋增加⽽备受折磨，却得益于因价值数⼗亿美元的粮⾷增收所带来的营养不良减少，⽽这正是⼆氧化碳排放的结果。
[This is the summary from Goklany’s report:
[以下为Goklany报告的总结：
1. This paper address the question of whether, and how much,
incread carbon dioxide concentrations have benefited the biosphere
and humanity by stimulating plant growth, warming the planet and
increasing rainfall.
1. 本论⽂讨论了升⾼的⼆氧化碳浓度是否以及多⼤程度上，以刺激植物⽣长、
暖化地球、增加⾬量的⽅式，使⽣物圈和⼈类受益。
2. Empirical data confirms that the biosphere’s productivity has incread
by about 14% since 1982, in large part as a result of rising carbon
dioxide levels.
2. 经验数据确认，⽣物圈的⽣产率⾃1982年以来已增加了⼤约14%，⼤部分是
⼆氧化碳⽔平持续上升的结果。
3. Thousands of scientific experiments indicate that increasing carbon
捉鸡
dioxide concentrations in the air have contributed to increas in crop
yields.
3. 数千项科学实验表明，提升⼤⽓中⼆氧化碳浓度，促进了农作物收成增加。
4. The increas in yield are very likely to have reduced the
结婚台词appropriation of land for farming by 11–17% compared with what it would
otherwi be, resulting in more land being left wild.
4. 上述收成的增加⾮常有可能使得⽤于耕作的⼟地数量相对于产量未增长时数量减少了11-17%，导致有更多⼟地被抛荒。
5. Satellite evidence confirms that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have also resulted in greater productivity of wild terrestrial ecosystems in all vegetation types.
5. 卫星证据确认，持续提升⼆氧化碳的浓度也在所有植被类型的野⽣陆地⽣态系统中导致了⽣产率提⾼。
6. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have also incread the productivity of many marine ecosystems.
6. 持续提升的⼆氧化碳浓度也增加了许多海洋⽣态系统的⽣产率。
7. In recent decades, trends in climate-nsitive indicators of human and environ- mental wellbeing have improved and continue to do so despite claims that they would deteriorate becau of global warming.
7. 最近数⼗年，⼈类和环境健康⽅⾯的⽓候敏感指数的变化趋势已经且持续改善，尽管有⼈宣称它们将会因全球变暖⽽出现恶化。
8. Compared with the benefits from carbon dioxide on crop and biosphere productivity, the adver impacts of carbon dioxide – on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, on a level, vector-
borne dia prevalence and human health – have been too small to measure or have been swamped by other factors.
8. 与它在农作物和⽣物圈⽣产率上所带来的好处相⽐，⼆氧化碳的负⾯影响——在极端天⽓发⽣的频率和强度上，在海平⾯⾼度上，在传染病流⾏与⼈类健康上——实在太⼩以⾄难以测量，或被其他因素所抵消。
9. Models ud to influence policy on climate change have overestimated the rate of warming, underestimated direct benefits of carbon dioxide, overestimated the harms from climate change and underestimated human capacity to adapt so as to capture the benefits while reducing the harms.
9. ⽤于影响⽓候变化政策的那些模型⾼估了变暖的速度，低估了⼆氧化碳的直接好处，⾼估了⽓候变化的害处，低估了⼈类适应变化从⽽抓住好处同时减少害处的能⼒。
10. It is very likely that the impact of rising carbon dioxide concentrations is currently net beneficial for both humanity and the biosphere generally.
The benefits are real, whereas the costs of warming are uncertain.
Halting the increa in carbon dioxide concentrations abruptly would
deprive people and the planet of the benefits of carbon dioxide much
sooner than they would reduce any costs of warming.]
10. 极有可能的是，对于⼈类乃⾄整个⽣物圈，⼆氧化碳浓度持续上升的影响
孙悟空特点时下⼤体上是⼀种净收益。这些好处真实可见，⽽暖化的代价则并不确定。若
⼆氧化碳浓度上升戛然⽽⽌，当然可能减少暖化成本，但与此相⽐，也会更快
写歌词地剥夺⼈类和地球⾃⼆氧化碳获得的诸多益处。]
It is worth remembering that commercial greenhous buy carbon dioxide to enhance the growth of plants, so the growth respons are well known — and it’s not until carbon dioxide reaches five times current concentrations that the benefits level out. As Patrick Moore pointed out, tho were normal levels for much of earth’s history.
我们最好记住这样⼀个事实，商业温室会购买⼆氧化碳来促进植物⽣长，所以⽣长率对⼆氧化碳的这种反应是众所周知的——并且，也不是只有当⼆氧化碳浓度到了当前⽔平的5倍时这种益处才显现出来。如Patrick Moore指出，⾜以促进⽣长的浓度，只须地球历史上多数时候的正常⽔平。
In addition, hundreds of “free-air concentration experiments” have measured how much incread carbon dioxide levels enhance crop yields in open fields. So it is fairly easy to work out how much carbon dioxide emissions are helping world agriculture: by about $140 billion a year, or $3 trillion in total so far. If reparations are to be paid, perhaps farmers should pay coal producers (full disclosure: I’m both).
此外，数百项“⾃由空⽓浓度试验”已经对⼤⽓⼆氧化碳⽔平提⾼多少会增加开旷地上作物产量进⾏了测量。所以要回答“⼆氧化碳排放对世界农业发挥了多⼤促进作⽤”这个问题就相当容易了：增产价值约每年1400亿美元，或迄今总计3万亿美元。如果说真要⽀付赔款，说不定农户还应该向煤炭⽣产商交钱呢（⼤曝光：我两种⾝份都有【编注：作者⾝为第5代Ridley⼦爵，拥有Northumberland郡的Blagdon庄园产业，该地产上有农地，也有两座煤矿，Ridley家族从中获取地租。】）。
Actually, this may be an underestimate: experiments show that crops tend to benefit more than weeds (most crops have a more responsive kind of photosynthetic machinery called C3, while weeds mostly have a less responsive kind called C4).事实上，这还可能是种低估：有实验显⽰，农作物通常⽐杂草受益更多（绝⼤多数农作物都具备⼀种反应更敏捷的光合作⽤机制，叫做C3，⽽杂草的光合作⽤机制绝⼤部分是
C4，后者反应敏捷度较低）。
Incread carbon dioxide enhances drought resistance in plants, benefiting dry regions such as the Sahel, which has greenedsignificantly in recent decades. And Goklany calculates that we need 11-17 per cent less land for feeding the world than we would if we had not incread carbon dioxide levels: so emissions have saved — and enhanced the growth of — a lot of rainforest.
增加⼆氧化碳会加强植物的抗旱性，使⼲旱地区受益，如萨赫勒地区最近数⼗年已显著变绿。并且据Goklany计算，和⼆氧化碳⽔平上升前相⽐，现在养活全世界所需的⼟地数量可以少11-17%：也可以说，⼆氧化碳排放拯救了⼤量热带⾬林——⽽且也促进了其⽣长。
[Here’s one weed experiment, as described in Goklany’s report:
[以下为Goklany报告中描述的⼀项杂草实验：
“A Chine experiment tested this idea by enriching carbon dioxide
levels over plots of rice to almost twice the ambient level. This enhanced
the ear weight of the rice by 37.6% while reducing the growth of a
common weed, barnyard grass, by 47.9%, becau the faster-growing
卜冰
rice shaded the weeds. Figure 1 illustrates the differing respons to
elevated carbon dioxide concentrations of rice, a C3 plant, and the green
foxtail Setaria viridis, a grass some- times propod as a genetic model
system to study C4 photosynthesis.”]
“⼀项中国实验检测这个想法，通过在稻⽥上富集近两倍于周边⽔平的⼆氧化
碳，将稻穗重量增加了37.6%，同时将稗⼦（⼀种普通杂草）的⽣长抑制了
47.9%，因为快速⽣长的⽔稻遮挡了杂草。图1显⽰了不同植物对⼆氧化碳浓度
提⾼的不同反应，⽔稻，⼀种C3植物，另⼀个则是狗尾草，后者常被当做C4光
合作⽤研究的模式⽣物。”]
[For instance a study published last week found the following:
[⽐如，上周发表的⼀项研究有如下发现：
普通话什么时候考Since 2012, the rearchers have pumped extra CO2 into three of six
basketball court-sized rings of 80-year-old bush. This has raid the CO2
concentration in the three plots to about 550 parts per million, up from the
ambient level of 400 ppm. Measurements revealed that for each unit of
water absorbed, the trees in the CO2-enriched rings reaped 35 per cent
more carbon than the trees in the control plots.]
⾃2012年以来，在六块篮球场⼤⼩的、⽣长着80岁树龄灌⽊丛的环形地块上，
研究者在其中三个地块灌注了超量的CO2，这三个地块的CO2浓度提升到了
550ppm，⽽环境⽔平为400ppm。测量显⽰，针对每⼀吸⽔单位，富含CO2
的地块的林⽊所获得的碳量⽐控制地块要多出35%。]
Well, all right, but surely the climate harms will one day outweigh the growth benefits? Not necessarily.
好吧，就算是这样，但总有⼀天⽓候危害肯定会超过⽣长之利吗？未必。
At the moment, impacts from the modest warming we saw in the 1980s and 1990s are also positive: slightly fewer premature deaths, which peak in cold weather more than in hot weather, slightly longer growing asons and so on.许魏洲身高
⽬前看来，我们从1980年代和1990年代的最温和的变暖中所看到的影响是正⾯的：早逝数量稍有减少（早逝通常在天⽓寒冷时达到峰值，⽐在炎热时严重），⽣长季节稍有延长，等等。
A paper published last week concludes that if the world does warm significantly, China’s rain systems will shift north, increasing rainfall in the dry north and reducing flooding in the hot south.
⽽上周发布的⼀项报告得出的结论是，如果全球确实⼤幅变暖，那中国的降⾬系统将会北移，北部⼲旱地区的⾬量会持续增加，南⽅炎热地区的洪涝将持续减少。
Besides, human adaptation means we can capture the benefits and avoid the harms. The IPCC’s forecast warming range includes the possibility that we will still be enjoying net benefits by the end of the century, when the world will (it says) be three to 16 times richer per capita. The fastest way to cut deaths from bad weather today (such as the storm that just battered the Philippines) is to make people richer, not to make weather safer: we have already cut world death rates from
