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2012年 11 月 30 河南嵩山日
译文1：
移步换景国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究
国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。随着1994年《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的签署，服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中,山东中烟服务贸易和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。
因此，服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象，还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律？对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。
对于 “国际服务贸易驱动经济增长”命题，理论分析认为，服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但能通过影响主要增长要素和技术进步而间接作用于经济增长．只不过在不同的经济发展阶段其作用方式和作用机理不同。在特定的经济发展阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）可对一国要素供给、技术进步产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。企业按照比较优势的动态变化路径选择产业、技术结构和贸易模式，由此推动贸易结构、产业结构、技术结构的升级以及增长方式的转变，最终推进经济发展阶段向高级阶段的逐步转换。从服务贸易和投资的作用机理看，服务贸易和投资通过物质资本积累效应、人力资本效应、技术进步效应、制度变迁效应、就业效应以及技术的外部性等路径影响一国的要素供给和技术进步，从而影响其资源禀赋结构的变动和贸易、产业结构的升级。这种影响的动态效应大于静态效应，外部效应大于内部效应．且服务业FDI的技术外溢效应大于狭义服务贸易（包括跨境交付、过境消费和自然人流动）的技术外溢效应。
对服务贸易作用于经济增长内在机理的研究。首先，对世界不同经济体和代表性国家进行因果关系检验。结果表明，无论是世界总体、发达国家以及发展中国家，还是美国和中国均表现出：服务贸易与经济增长存有因果关系。发达经济体、中国的服务贸易是经济增长的原因；世界经济总体、发展经济体则表现出经济增长成为服务贸易的原因：美国的服务
贸易出口是经济增长的原因，而经济增长是服务贸易进口的原因。从这个意义上说，服务业的开放有利于一国经济增长，并且服务贸易和投资对经济增长的影响程度与特定的经济发展阶段相关。其次，与已有的研究不同，为了进一步验证服务贸易和投资是如何作用于经济增长以及作用的强度，分别对美国和中国做了实证研究。结果显示，美国服务贸易对经济增长的影响路径由强到弱依次为：就业效应、人力资本效应、物质资本效应。技术效应、制度效应的影响作用相对较弱。中国的实证分析结果可归纳为：服务出口对就业、物质资本积累和制度等效应的作用很大，而人力资本和技术效应影响不显著；服务进口额带来的技术效应、制度效应和就业效应大，人力资本效应和物质资本效应则不显著；服务业原地纵跳FDI的技术效应、人力资本效应和制度效应较为显著，就业效应和物质资本效应较小。并且从作用强度看，总体上服务业FDI路径的影响作用大于服务进口，服务进口又大于服务出口。
根据实证检验可得出以下结论：狭义服务贸易通过服务的进出口路径对一国要素供给产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。服务业对外直接投资是服务业中最重要的跨境交易方式之一，因而服务业国际直接投资是影响一国要素供给优势转换的另一条重要途径。值得注意的是，上述渠道对处于不同经济发展阶段的国家影响不同，其影
响效应的充分发挥要依赖于特定的约束条件。各影响因素的投入与产出之间不是绝对的函数对应关系，而是互相影响形成无数反馈链共同作用于经济增长。
基于我国经济正处于工业化初级阶段向中级阶段转换时期的判断，以及现阶段服务贸易和投资的比较优劣势和区位优劣势的评判，认为中国应选择“偏保护的管理服务贸易”政策，并采取相应的政策措施。包括：确立三次产业协调发展的科学发展观，为服务贸易奠定坚实的产业基础；制定服务贸易发展战略规划，分层次逐步开放服务贸易市场；准确把握服务产业的国际转移规律，改善服务业利用外资的区位环境。
原文1：
The rearch of international rvice trade and economic growth theory
basketball是什么意思The study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional e
conomy orientating towards information resources and rvice industry. After the signature of GATS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing rvice trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of rvice trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between rvice trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical rearch on rvice trade lags behind practice.
Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.
For the proposition of that "International rvice trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although rvice trade is not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, rvice trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade
in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterpris that lect industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of rvice trade and investment is concerned, rvice trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in rvice industry is greater than that of rvice trade in a narrow n (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).
For the rearch of mechanism about how rvice trade drive economic growth. Firstly, th
e paper verifies the causality between rvice trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the reprentative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international rvice trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, rvice trade is the Granger cau of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cau of rvice trade; In the US, rvice export is the Granger cau of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cau of rvice import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of rvice industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the rvice trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the ca of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which rvice trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which rvice export affects economic growth can be row中小学开学时间
ed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which rvice import affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in rvice affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in rvice is stronger than rvice import, and the effect of rvice import is stronger than rvice export.
