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234
China ’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO )connotes that Chine agriculture has come into a new developing stage.
With the adjustment of agricultural policies,China ’s agriculture has made a great improvement.But there are three
irreversible
conditions
and
five
outstanding
contradictions in the way of the development of China ’s a-griculture.
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The total population of China will increa to 1.384billion in 2010in expectation.However,during the
past two
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decades,the proportion of rural people in the total
population only decread from 80%to 64%,and the proportion
of
agricultural workers
in
China ’s
total
employment fell from 84%to 50%.The the proportion of agricultural workers declined faster than that of the rural population due to the rapid rural industrialization
(i.e.the
development of the township and village enterpris ctor ).!"#$%&#$’()*+&)$%
According to the national statistics,China has 95million hectares farmland,but the actual farmland is 125to 130million hectares by the survey of satellites.National legislations and policies attach importance to the farmland protection,but the rapid progress of economic construction has a sharp need of non-farmland,such as the build of freeway network and railway lines.At the same time,a large amount of farmland is ud to rebuild forests,lakes and grasslands.All the lead to a sharp decrea of farmland.A report from Hubei Province said that the farmland lesned from 3.58million hectares to 3.358
million hectares in the
last ten years in Hubei,which means a decrea of 22,700hectares per year equal to an area of a mi
ddle or small town.Compared to this,the population in Hubei incread in the ten years from 49.31million to 56.57million,which indicates an increa of !"#$%%%per year that equals to a population of a middle city.The per capita farmland is decread from 0.073hectares to 0.059hectares.The phenomenon also exits in Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangsu,etc.
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With the improvement of people ’s living standard,people are looking forward to a better future.The rapid growth of economy brings an increa of people ’s income,which leads to an increa demand.
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a )Micro-production policy changes adaptable to demand structure
b )Destruction of the environment and resources
c )Extension of income difference
d )Th
e government policies and ability to support sustain-able agriculture
e )Reduction in lf-supply o
f grain and the state ’s
economic and political curity
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Taking the grain market as an example,there were veral important changes in China ’s agricultural policy following from its WTO accession commitments:
China adopts a tariff quota for total grain imports at a 1%token tariff rate.The quota was 18.031million tons in 2002,20.2million tons in 2003,and will increa to 22.16million tons in 2004.According to the accession agreement,the 22.16million tons of tariff quota is to be shared between the state and private enterpris,and all unud state quotas are to be transferred to private enterpris.
The above-quota tariff for the major grains will be 65%,and for soybeans the tariff rate will be 3%.
The average tariff rate for all agricultural products is to be reduced from 22%to 17.5%.
The average rate of domestic support for agricultural products will be zero.There will be no export subsidies.
Other non-tariff restrictions on imports of agricultural products,such as licensing,are to be eliminated.This includes restrictions on imports of wheat from the north-west areas of North America,which may have TCK dia.
According to the prediction,a population boom in China will reach 1.6billion,and people need about 0.4to
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0.5billion tons of grain per year.According to China ’s agriculture developmental requirement,some measures were adopted to avoid building our country ’s food curity onto the international high-risk market.
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懊恼不已Compared with the year 1995,the total area showed the grain decread by 4.5%in 2000,whereas the rice area was only reduced by 2.5%.In comparison,the wheat area was reduced by 7.6%.Further adjustment can be expected.However,the capacity for further adjustment is limited
becau rice normally requires irrigation,whereas most of China ’s north areas which mainly produce wheat,corn,and soybean are dry.Only the northeast ,Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang,may have the potential to expand rice production.
The cond was to replace grain with other agricultural products, e.g.,vegetables,cotton,oil-bearing crops,tea,and fruits.The proportion of land area sown to grain to total sown area fluctuated between 70%and 80%in the past 20years,and fallen to its lowest level of 69%in 2000due to low grain prices.I
n addition,grain importing provinces in the coastal areas provide more markets to tho provinces that have higher comparative advantage.In fact,quotas to the major grain producing provinces have also been
dropped,becau there is still a surplus of grain supplies.The formal abolition of the government quota system or price protection will have a positive effect on the market-oriented structural adjustment in the future.
An often-ud measure for farmers to reduce grain production in the short run in responding to price changes is to reduce the multiple-cropping rate.Export-oriented agriculture is mainly in the coastal areas like Guangdong.In 2000,exports of food and food animals were US $12.3billion in China,accounting for only 4%of the total output value of agricultural products.There are possible capacities for further development of export-oriented crops and animal products.Future adjustment should be directed to incread exports of labor-intensive products with low land intensity.However,a major effect is needed,especially for remote inland areas,to develop business connections with world market,and also to develop related human resources,infrastructure and other facilities.3(’*40).5/01(5/*&(1&0*)
Past experience indicates that government protection of grain prices has had a negative impact on farmers ’incomes becau it has distorted market prices and therefore led to supply adjustment towards wrong directions.Government t grain prices levels higher than market demand,eventually resulted in surplus of grain products and large fluctuations in grain prices and production in the past,and riously injured farmers.Although currently price protection is not effective,under the WTO commitment of the government,price support is ruled out.
To replace the price protection and to protect low-income farmers,
more effective measures such as
improving information,technical and training rvices for farmers are needed,which will help them
to adjust their
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production toward more efficient areas.In particular,provide them employment opportunities in non-grain and non-agricultural ctors.
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A major expected structural adjustment is the further transfer of agricultural labor and other resources to the industrial and rvice ctors.According to the investiga-tion,the transfer of agricultural labor to the rural TVE ctor and the urban ctor during the 1990s was 68million,but this only reduced the agricultural labor force from 366million to 344million.In the process there was only minor improvement in labor productivity and farmer ’s income,far slower than in the 1980s.Employment growth in TVE stagnated in the late 1990s,and rural-urban migration has also faced more
resistance becau urban unemployment
贫困生认定
has incread rapidly.According to past experience and the current situation,it is assumed that,in a normal ca,rural
industrialization and urbanization will together ab-我是长颈鹿
sorb 5.1million rural laborers per year on average from 2001to 2010,and reduce the net agricultural labor force by 4million per year.
To fully absorb the grain import shock,at least an additional 6million farmers should be employed by the TVE and urban ctors between 2002and 2004(assuming that 3.2million will move to non -grain agricultural production during this period ).This is obviously impossible.However,
over a longer period,urbanization could be accelerated via policy adjustment
(including removing the policy bias
against medium and large sized cities )and improvement in urban infrastructure.Assuming that the speed of rural-urban migration can be doubled,and then an additional 30million agricultural workers can move to the urban ctor from 2001to 2010.In this ca,the grain shock can be absorbed,and there will be larger improvement in agricultural labor by the industrial and rvice ctors,which may lead to a net reduction of the number of farmers by another 100million or more over the coming 20years.
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China ’s economy is in the metapha of industrializa-tion,but China ’s agriculture is still a low-quality industry.70%of Chine are farmers,but they only posss 40%of consuming market and 20%of the deposit account.Becau of the imbalance economic development in different regions,the tendency of polarization becomes more rious.At the same time China ’s long-term irrational exploitation caus a ries of rious environment problems.Frequent natural calamities bring bad effects to the relations between people and the nature,which accelerate the exhaustion of some non-regenerated resources.How to get rid of all hurdles in the sustainable development of agriculture and increa the competitive power and farmers "income is the key for China.
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“!"#$%&’(&#)’*%$+,%+-.+%/,0’0"1”入世后中国农业的状况
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