Demographic dividend
Demographic dividend refers to a period–usually20 to30years–when fertility rates fall due to significant reductions in child and infant mortality rates.As women and families realize that fewer children will die during in-fancy or childhood,they will begin to have fewer children to reach their desired number of offspring,further reduc-ing the proportion of non-productive dependents.This fall is often accompanied by an extension in average life expectancy that increas the portion of the population that is in the working age-group.This cuts spending on dependents and spurs economic growth. Demographic dividend,as defined by the United Nations Population Fund(UNFPA)means,“the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure,mainly when the share of the working-age pop-ulation(15to64)is larger than the non-working-age share of the population(14and younger,and65and older).”[1]In other words it is“a boost in economic pro-ductivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of depen-dents.”[2]UNFPA stated that,“A country with both in-creasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend.”[3] Due to the dividend between young and old,many argue that there is a great potential for economic gains.In or-der for economic growth to occur the younger population must have access to quality education,adequate nutrition and health including access to xual and reproductive health.
However,this drop in fertility rates is not immediate.The lag between produces a generational population bulge that surges through society.For a period of time this“bulge”is a burden on society and increas the dependency ratio. Eventually this group begins to enter the productive la-bor force.With fertility rates continuing to fall and older generations having shorter life expectancies,the depen-dency ratio declines dramatically.This demographic shift initiates the demographic dividend.With fewer younger dependents,due to declining fertility and child mortality rates,and fewer older dependents,due to the older gen-erations having shorter life expectancies,and the largest gment of the population of productive working age, the dependency ratio declines dramatically leading to the demographic dividend.Combined with effective public policies this time period of the demographic dividend can help facilitate more rapid economic growth and puts less strain on families.This is also a time period when many women enter the labor force for thefirst time.[4]In many countries this time period has led to increasingly smaller
families,rising income,and rising life expectancy rates.[5] However,dramatic social changes can also occur during this time,such as increasing divorce rates,postponement of marriage,and single-person houholds.[6]
1Statistical Overview
描写人物外貌的作文Approximately1.8billion people between10and24 years old exist in the world today;the highest total num-ber of young people than ever before.[7]According to the UN Population Fund(UNFPA),this number is ex-pected to increa until2070.[8]Much of the increa has derived from the least developed countries who have experienced rapid and large growth in their youth pop-ulations.Within least developed countries’populations roughly60%are under24years old.[9]The large propor-tion of young people in least developed countries creates an opportunity to realize a demographic dividend.How-ever,this realization comes with challenges.红心柚子
UNFPA stated that,[10]
“By the middle of this century,the population of the least developed countries will have doubled in size,adding14 million young people to the working-age population each year.Creating conditions for decent livelihoods will be an enormous task,especially given that,currently,about80 per cent of the people who work in the countries are un-employed,underemployed or irregularly employed.Ad-ditionally,the shortage offinancial resources will make it difficult to maintain,let alone increa,spending on health,education and nutrition.”
Therefore,in order to reap the benefits of a demographic dividend,countries must recognize and culti
vate the po-tential of young people and clo the gap between the demands placed on young people and the opportunities provided to them.[11]
2Examples
吴延睿2.1East Asia
East Asia provides some of the most compelling evidence to date of the demographic dividend.The demographic transition in East Asia occurred over5–15years during the1950s and1960s,a shorter time period than any-where previously.During this time,East Asian coun-tries invested in their youth and expanded access to family 1
23FOUR MECHANISMS FOR GROWTH IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
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planning allowing people to start families later and have fewer children.More resources began to become avail-able,investment in infrastructure began and productive investments were made as fertility rates fell resulting in unprecedented economic growth.For example,UNFPA stated that,“The Republic of Korea,saw its per-capita gross domestic product grow about2,200per cent be-tween1950and2008and Thailand’s GDP grew970per cent.”[12]
East Asia was able to benefit from knowledge,experi-ence,and technology of other countries that had already pasd through the demographic transition.[13]It has been argued that the demographic dividend played a role in the“economic miracles”of the East Asian Tigers and accounts for between one fourth and twofifths of the “miracle”.[14][15]
2.2Ireland
Ireland also provides a recent example of the demo-graphic dividend and transition.Faced with a high birth rate,the Irish government legalized contraception in 1979.This policy led to a decline in the fertility rate and a decrea in the dependency ratio.It has been linked as a contributing factor to the economic boom of the1990s that was called the Celtic Tiger.[16]During this time the dependency ratio also improved as a result of incread female labor market participation and a reversal from out-ward migration of working age population to a net inflow.
孕期安全2.3Africa
Africa,on the other hand has been unique demographi-cally becau fertility rates have remained relatively high, even as significant progress has been made decreasing the mortality rates.This has led to a continuing popu-lation explosion rather than a population boom and has contributed to the e
conomic stagnation in much of Sub-Saharan Africa.[17]The magnitude of the demographic dividend appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers,[18]rather than be a pure demographic gift.Ac-cording to the UN Population Fund,“If sub-Saharan African countries are able to repeat the East Asian expe-rience,the region could realize a demographic dividend amounting to as much as$500billion a year for30years.
[19]
2.4India
In near future India will be the largest individual con-tributor to the global demographic transition.A2011 International Monetary Fund Working Paper found that substantial portion of the growth experienced by In-dia since the1980s is attributable to the country’s age structure and changing demographics.[20]The U.S.Cen-sus Bureau predicts that India will surpass China as the world’s largest country by2025,with a large proportion of tho in the working age category.[21]Over the next two decades the continuing demographic dividend in In-dia could add about two percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth.[22]Extreme actions are needed to take care of future basic minimum living standards including food,water and energy.[23]As per Population Reference Bureau India’s population in2050 is projected to be1.692billion people.[24]
椒盐带鱼怎么做3Four mechanisms for growth in the demographic dividend
During the cour of the demographic dividend there are four mechanisms through which the benefits are deliv-ered.
1.Thefirst is the incread labor supply.However,the
magnitude of this benefit appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and produc-tively employ the extra workers rather than be a pure demographic gift.
2.The cond mechanism is the increa in savings.
As the number of dependents decreas individu-als can save more.This increa in national sav-ings rates increas the stock of capital in develop-ing countries already facing shortages of capital and leads to higher productivity as the accumulated cap-ital is invested.
3.The third mechanism is human capital.Decreas
in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home.This also allows par-ents to invest more resources per child,leading to better health and educational outcomes.
4.The fourth mechanism for growth is the increas-
ing domestic demand brought about by the increas-ing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio.
[25]
3 Low fertility initially leads to low youth dependency and
a high ratio of working age to total population.However
as the relatively large working age cohort grows older,
population aging ts in.The graph shows the ratio of
working age to dependent population(tho15to64
years old,divided by tho above or below this age range
-the inver of the dependency ratio)bad on data and
projections from the United Nations.
There is a strategic urgency to put in place policies which
take advantage of the demographic dividend for most
countries.[26]This urgency stems from the relatively small
window of opportunity countries have to plan for the de-
mographic dividend when many in their population are
still young,prior to entering the work force.[27]During
this short opportunity,countries traditionally try to pro-
蝴蝶线描
mote investments which will help the young people be
more productive during their working years.[28]Failure
to provide opportunities to the growing young population
will result in rising unemployment and an incread risk
of social upheaval.[29][30]
4After the demographic dividend水笔画顺序
The urgency to put in place appropriate policies is magni-
fied by the reality that what follows the“demographic div-
idend”is a time when the dependency ratio begins to in-
crea again.Inevitably the population bubble that made
its way through the most productive working years cre-
ating the“demographic dividend”grows old and retires.
With a disproportionate number of old people relying
upon a smaller generation following behind them the“de-
mographic dividend”becomes a liability.With each gen-
eration having fewer children population growth slows,
stops,or even goes into rever.This is currently en
most dramatically in Japan with younger generations es-
ntially abandoning many parts of the country.[31]Other
regions,notably Europe and North America,will face
similar situations in the near future with East Asia to fol-
low after that.
China’s current independence ratio of38is unprecedent-
edly low.This reprents the number of dependents,chil-
dren,and people over65,per100working adults.[32]
This implies that there are nearly twice as many work-
ing age people as the rest of the entire population com-
bined.This historically low dependency ratio has been
extremely beneficial for China’s unprecedented period of
economic growth.This dramatic shift was brought about
largely in part due to China’s one-child policy.As a re-
sult China is currently aging at an unprecedented rate.[33]
China will be older than the United States by2020and
by Europe by2030.[34]Combined with the x-lective
abortions widely practiced as a result of the one-child pol-
icy–China will have96.5million men in their20s in
2025but only80.3million young women–China’s future
demography holds many challenges for the Communist
Party.
