Executive Summary
B y any standard, China’s economic per-
formance over the last three decades
示儿原文及翻译has been impressive. GDP growth aver-aged 10 percent a year, and over 500 million people were lifted out of poverty. China is now the world’s largest exporter and manu-facturer, and its cond largest economy.
Even if growth moderates, China is likely to become a high-income economy and the world’s largest economy before 2030, not-withstanding the fact that its per capita income would still be a fraction of the aver-age in advanced economies.
But two questions ari. C an C hina’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environ-ment, and the fabric of its own society?
This report answers both questions in the affirmative, without downplaying the risks. By 2030, China has the potential to be a mod-ern, harmonious, and creative high-income society. But achieving this obj
ective will not be easy. To ize its opportunities, meet its many challenges, and realize its development vision for 2030, China needs to implement a new development strategy in its next pha of development. The reforms that launched China on its current growth trajectory were inspired by Deng Xiaoping who played an important role in building connsus for a fundamental shift in the country’s strategy.
After more than 30 years of rapid growth,
China has reached another turning point in
its development path when a cond strategic,
and no less fundamental, shift is called for.
The 12th Five Year Plan provides an excellent
start. This report combines its key elements
to design a longer-term strategy that extends
to 2030. More importantly, it focus on the
“how,” not just the “what.” Six important
messages emerge from the analysis:
First, implement structural reforms to strengthen the foundations for a market-
bad economy by redefining the role of gov-
ernment, reforming and restructuring state enterpris and banks, developing the private
ctor, promoting competition, and deepen-
ing reforms in the land, labor, and financial
markets. As an economy approaches the technology frontier and exhausts the poten-
tial for acquiring and applying technology
from abroad, the role of the government
and its relationship to markets and the pri-
vate ctor need to change fundamentally.
While providing relatively fewer “tangible”
public goods and rvices directly, the gov-
ernment will need to provide more intan-
gible public goods and rvices like systems,
rules, and policies, which increa produc-
tion efficiency, promote competition, facili-
tate specialization, enhance the efficiency
c h i n a2030 xv
皮包怎么清洗
xvi c h i n a2030
吃醋的由来of resource allocation, protect the environ-ment, and reduce risks and uncertainties.
In the enterpri ctor, the focus will need to be further reforms of state enterpris (including measures to recalibrate the role of public resources, introduce modern corporate governance practices including parating ownership from management, and implement gradual ownership diversification where nec-essary), private ctor development and fewer barriers to entry and exit, and incread com-petition in all ctors, including in strategic and pillar industries. In the financial ctor, it would require commercializing the banking system, gradually allowing interest rates to be t by market forces, deepening the capital market, and developing the legal and supervi-sory infrastructure to ensure financial stabil-ity and build the credible foundations for the internationalization of China’s financial c-tor. In the labor market, China needs to accel-erate phad reforms of the hukou system to ensure that by 2030 Chine workers can move in respon to market signals. It also needs to introduce measures to increa labor force participation rates, rethink wage policy, and u social curity instruments (pensions, health, and unemployment insurance) that are portable nationwide. Finally, rural land mar-kets need to be overhauled to protect farmer rights and increa efficiency of land u, and policies for acquisition of rural land for urban u must be thoroughly overhauled to prevent urban sprawl, reduce local government depen-dency on land-related revenues, and address a frequent cau of complaint from farmers. Second, accelerate the pace of innovation and create an open innovation system in which competitive pressu
res encourage Chi-ne firms to engage in product and pro-cess innovation not only through their own rearch and development but also by par-ticipating in global rearch and development networks. China has already introduced a range of initiatives in establishing a rearch and development infrastructure and is far ahead of most other developing countries. Its priority going forward is to increa the qual-ity of rearch and development, rather than just quantity. To achieve this, policy makers will need to focus on: increasing the techni-cal and cognitive skills of university gradu-ates and building a few world-class rearch universities with strong links to industry; fos-tering “innovative cities” that bring together high-quality talent, knowledge networks, dynamic firms, and learning institutions, and allow them to interact without restriction; and increasing the availability of patient risk capital for start up private firms.
隐忍是什么意思Third, ize the opportunity to “go green” through a mix of market incentives, regula-tions, public investments, industrial policy, and institutional development. Encouraging green development and incread efficiency of resource u is expected to not only improve the level of well-being and sustain rapid growth, but also address China’s manifold environmental challenges. The intention is to encourage new investments in a range of low-pollution, energy- and resource-efficient industries that would lead to greener develop-ment, spur investments in related upstream and downstream manufa小鲤鱼历险记
cturing and rvices, and build international competitive advantage in a global sunri industry. The policies have the potential to succeed, given China's many advantages—its large market size that will allow rapid scaling up of successful tech-nologies to achieve economies of scale and reduced unit costs, a high investment rate that will permit rapid replacement of old, ineffi-cient, and environmentally damaging capital stock; its growing and dynamic private ctor that will respond to new signals from govern-ment, provided it gets access to adequate lev-els of finance; and a relatively well-developed rearch and development infrastructure that can be harnesd to reach and then expand the “green” technology frontier.
Fourth, expand opportunities and promote social curity for all by facilitating equal access to jobs, finance, quality social rvices, and portable social curity. The policies will be critical in reversing rising inequality, helping houholds manage employment-, health-, and age-related risks, and increasing labor mobility. China’s relatively high social and economic inequality (some dimensions
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of which have been increasing) stems in large part from large rural-urban differences in access to jo
宋朝官职一览表
bs, key public rvices, and social protection. Reversing this trend requires three coordinated actions: delivering more and better quality public rvices to under-rved rural areas and migrant populations from early childhood to tertiary education institutions and from primary health care to care for the aged; restructuring social cu-rity systems to ensure cure social safety nets; and mobilizing all gments of soci-ety—public and private, government and social organizations—to share responsibili-ties in financing, delivering and monitoring the delivery of social rvices.
Fifth, strengthen the fiscal system by mobi-lizing additional revenues and ensuring local governments have adequate financing to meet heavy and rising expenditure respon-sibilities. Many of the reforms propod in this development strategy—enterpri and financial ctor reforms, green development, equality of opportunity for all—have impli-cations for the level and allocation of public expenditures. Over the next two decades, the agenda for strengthening the fiscal system will involve three key dimensions: mobiliz-ing additional fiscal resources to meet rising budgetary demands; reallocating spending toward social and environmental objectives; and ensuring that budgetary resources avail-able at different levels of government (central, provincial, prefectural, county, township, village) are commensurate with expenditure responsibilities. Without appropriate fiscal reforms, many of the other reform elements of the new development strategy would be difficult to move forward.
一头猪多重
Sixth, ek mutually beneficial relations with the world by becoming a pro-active stake-holder in the global economy, actively using multilateral institutions and frameworks, and shaping the global governance agenda. China’s integration with the global economy rved it well over the past three decades. By continuing to intensify its trade, invest-ment, and financial links with the global economy over the next two decades, China will be able to benefit from further special-ization, incread investment opportunities and higher returns to capital, and mutually beneficial flow of ideas and knowledge. As a key stakeholder in the global economy, China must remain pro-active in resuscitating the stalled Doha multilateral trade negotiations, advocate “open regionalism” as a feature of regional trading arrangements, and sup-port a multilateral agreement on investment flows. Integrating the Chine financial ctor with the global financial system, which will involve opening the capital account (among other things), will need to be undertaken steadily and with considerable care, but it will be a key step toward internationalizing the renminbi as a global rerve currency. Finally, C hina must play a central role in engag-ing with its partners in multilateral ttings to shape the global governance agenda and address pressing global economic issues such as climate change, global financial stability, and a more effective international aid archi-tecture that rves the cau of development in poor nations less fortunate than China.
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The six priority reform areas lay out objectives for the short, medium, and long term, and policy makers need to quence the reforms within and across the areas appro-priately to ensure smooth implementation and to reach desired outcomes. A successful outcome will require strong leadership and commitment, steady implementation with a determined will, coordination across minis-tries and agencies, and nsitive yet effective management of a consultation process that will ensure public support and participation in the design, implementation, and oversight of the reform process. And since the global economy is entering a dangerous pha and China itlf will be transitioning from middle-income to high-income status, the government will need to respond to a variety of risks, shocks, and vulnerabilities as they ari; in doing so, it must hold fast to the principle that policy respons to short-term problems should uphold, not undermine, long-term reform priorities.
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