Coke Market Survey Annual Report November 2011 Key Points
何为爱The blast furnace coke price is likely to average around $470/tonne in both Europe and India in 2011, reprenting a 6-12% increa on the previous year. The Chine export price is likely to average just over $500/tonne fob this year, the cond-highest after 2008. Coking coal prices were at all-time highs as a result of the Australian floods at the start of the year, so coke producers generally experienced low profitability. Australian hard coking prices will average $289/tonne fob in 2011, similar to that of the last peak of 2008. Towards the end of the year, a deterioration in economic conditions nt coke prices lower, and the weak market is likely to persist into 2012.
From August 2008, the export tax on Chine coke was incread to 40%. This move is making exports from China intermittent and largely confined to special qualities.
Chine coke exports were only 0.5m tonnes in 2009 but recovered to around 3.3m tonnes in 2010; this year they may be around 3.5m tonnes, still way below the 14-15m tpy levels of 2000-08. In the recent past, China has accounted for around half of global coke trade, so the government controls on exports exert a major influence on the world market.
Our rearch indicates that world coke production was 594m tonnes in 2010, 10% up on the previous y
ear. When China is excluded from the total, there was an increa of 14%. As a result of the economic crisis of the past three years, 15m tpy of coke capacity outside China has been permanently clod. Together with the Chine export restrictions, this factor is expected to create supply tightness for coke once the world economy recovers, maybe from 2013-14.
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Table of Contents
Page
Technical Introduction 4
Executive Summary 5
Report Contents
Iron & Steel Production Forecasts 12
Coke Production 23
Production by Region 25
Historical World Coke Production 2001-10 32
Projected World Coke Production 2011-16 35
Plant-by-Plant Analysis 37
Coke Production by Company 89
Coke Capacity 93
Summary by Country 94
Battery Age Profile 98
Permanent Capacity Closures 107
Capacity Expansions 108
qq设备锁Metallurgical Coal Markets 115
Definition of Coking Coal 116
Metallurgical Coal Pricing 117
Export Volumes 120
Demand for Metallurgical Coal 135
Coke Demand 141
Blast Furnace & Other Iron-making Capacity 143
Ba Metals Smelting 152
Calcium Carbide Capacity 155
Ferrochrome Capacity 158
Mangane Alloys Capacity 161
Synthetic Soda Ash Capacity 165
Summary of Non-ferrous Demand 169
Summary by Country 170
Historical Coke Demand 2001-10 185
Forecast Coke Demand 2011-21 191
Coke Imports 194
Coke Exports 199
Coke Market Balance 210
Historical Stock Changes 211 Trade Balance 212
Capacity Balance 215
Price Analysis & Forecasts 220
Appendices 226
A: Chine Coke Production by Province 227
B: Comments on Chine Coke Industry 230
C: Chine Coke Market Data 240
D: Chine Domestic Coke Pricing 241
Coke Production (cont’d)
Production by Region (cont'd)
Region Coke Production, Million metric tonnes
(dry basis)
Comments
2009 2010 2011
Maghreb & Middle East
5.3 5.6 5.8In this region, coke output incread in the 1980s but has
since been stable at around 6m tpy.
There are veral coke projects in progress in Iran and
Turkey to rai capacity, with the aim meeting demand
from rising steel production.
The coke plant in Algeria clod in 2009; it may be rebuilt in the next few years. One battery in Egypt clod in 2010, as the producer there is de-emphasizing exports and focusing on its domestic market.
% Change Year-on-Year
-8% +6% +3%
Asia
423.9 459.0 534.1China, of cour, accounts for most of Asian production.
The Chine share of world production has rin to 65% in
2010 from 20% twenty years ago. In recent years, coke
production has shifted from inland provinces such as Shanxi to the coast where steel capacity is being added. Output has grown by an average of 11% per year over the past decade; slower growth is expected for the next five years.
特送
Coke capacity in India meets demand from steel plants as well as merchant pig iron production. Investments in capacity continue, but growth in coke production is slower than might be expected.
Despite ongoing investments in Japane capacity, the average age of batteries there continues to ri, reaching 35 years compared to 28 years ten years ago. Hence, battery reconstructions will continue.
New coke plants have recently been completed in South Korea and Taiwan as part of greenfield steel projects.
A major steel project in Vietnam is emerging, which would need investment in more coke capacity. Krakatau and Posco have a steel joint venture in Indonesia which will include a coke plant, should the project be fulfilled.
剥夺英语Demand in Asia for foundry coke totals around 6m tpy, supplied mostly by China. There is also production in Japan.
% Change Year-on-Year
+11% +8% +9%
Australasia
2.5
3.1 3.0Australian production peaked in 1996 at almost 5m tonnes
but has since declined to around 3m tpy.
One battery shut at Port Kembla in 2011-12. Otherwi, little change likely in Australian capacity.
% Change Year-on-Year -21% +26% -6%
Total 540.0 593.6 641.4
% Change Year-on-Year
+3% +10% +8%
Coke Production (cont’d)长城画法
Production by Region (cont'd)
Coke Production (cont’d)
FSU / CIS Coke Production,
Million metric tonnes
(dry basis)
Comments
2009 2010 2011
Russia (cont’d)
Nizhny Tagil Iron & Steel (Evraz)
Nizhny Tagil
Capacity: 2.68m tpy
No of Batteries: 4
Average Battery Age: 31.7 yr 2.86 2.04 2.40 Two batteries #7 and #8 (both 0.45m tpy) were clod
permanently in February 2009 due to their advanced
age. From 2010, Evraz has been offering coke from
Nizhny Tagil for export.
Novokuznetsk Iron & Steel (Evraz)
Novokuznetsk
Capacity: 0.77m tpy
三衢No of Batteries: 2
Average Battery Age: 22.0 yr 0.48 0.53 0.60 For captive consumption only. One battery (#5)
clod in 2006, reducing capacity by around 0.4m tpy.
Production has decread from 1.0-1.1m tpy before
2006 to less than half this level currently. Demand by
the steel plant is also met from the Zapsib coke plant,
also owned by Evraz.
Novolipetsk Steel
Lipetsk
Capacity: 2.39m tpy
No of Batteries: 4 Average Battery Age: 8.8 yr 2.29 2.34 2.40 Two batteries were clod in October 2008 (#7 and
#8), and two more in February 2009 (#3 and #4). As a
result, coke capacity Lipetsk declined from 4.85m tpy
to 2.39m tpy. Some demand at the steel plant is met
胸上长痣by Altai-Koks, owned by Novolipetsk Steel. A 3.4m
tpy blast furnace was completed in 2011, although
考试口诀some of the extra coke demand will be offt by the
introduction of PCI.
Severstal
Cherepovets
Capacity: 4.18m tpy
No of Batteries: 7
Average Battery Age: 28.3 yr 3.66 3.77 4.00 Battery #7 was put on hot idle in November 2008 and
is still down for rebuild. It is due to restart at the end
of 2012. Severstal overhauled its #3 battery in 2006.
Urals Steel
Novotroitsk
Capacity: 2.51m tpy
No of Batteries: 5
Average Battery Age: 30.9 yr 1.58 1.57 1.60 Acquired asts of the bankrupt Nosta steel plant in
2003. Urals Steel plans to construct an additional
0.46m tpy battery, but no date has yet been decided.
Zapsib (Evraz) Novokuznetsk
Capacity: 3.58m tpy
No of Batteries: 5
Average Battery Age: 29.0 yr 2.86 3.20 3.40 Battery #3 was clod permanently in 2009; its
capacity was 0.65m tpy. On-site steelworks is the
customer.
