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时间序列回归模型书写

更新时间:2023-05-23 22:44:40 阅读： 评论：0

昆明西山风景区
Dependent Variable: DX
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/28/13  Time: 14:51
Sample (adjusted): 1953 1988
Included obrvations: 36 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 7 iterations
MA Backcast: 1952
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Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
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Prob. 
C
5.015569
2.130291
2.354406
0.0245
MA(1)
0.708176
0.126364
5.604265
0.0000
R-squared
0.318165
    Mean dependent var
4.983333
Adjusted R-squared
0.298111
    S.D. dependent var
8.970762
S.E. of regression
7.515597
    Akaike info criterion
6.925791
Sum squared resid
1920.463
    Schwarz criterion
7.013764
Log likelihood
-122.6642
    Hannan-Quinn criter.
6.956496
F-statistic
15.86545
    Durbin-Watson stat
2.042084
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（1-B）xt=5.015569+εt+ 0.708176εt-1
Dependent Variable: DX
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/28/13  Time: 14:52
Sample (adjusted): 1954 1988
Included obrvations: 35 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 2 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob. 
AR(1)
0.652119
0.131116
4.973593
0.0000
R-squared
0.234740
    Mean dependent var
5.080000
Adjusted R-squared
0.234740
    S.D. dependent var
9.082686
S.E. of regression
7.945457
    Akaike info criterion
7.011233
Sum squared resid
2146.430
    Schwarz criterion
7.055671
Log likelihood
-121.6966
    Hannan-Quinn criter.
7.026573
Durbin-Watson stat
1.944132
Inverted AR Roots
      .65
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▽xt=0.652119▽xt-1 +εt
Dependent Variable: DX
Method: Least Squares
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Date: 11/28/13  Time: 15:15
Sample (adjusted): 1954 1988
Included obrvations: 35 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 3 iterations
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob. 
C
5.233120
2.843058
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0.0747
AR(1)
0.538116
0.146348
3.676952
0.0008
R-squared
0.290627
    Mean dependent var
5.080000
Adjusted R-squared
0.269131
    S.D. dependent var
9.082686
S.E. of regression
7.764866
    Akaike info criterion
6.992541
Sum squared resid
1989.674
    Schwarz criterion
7.081418
Log likelihood
-120.3695
    Hannan-Quinn criter.
7.023221
F-statistic
13.51998
    Durbin-Watson stat
1.879374
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000833

▽xt=5.233120*（1-0.538116）+0.538116▽xt-1 +εt
Dependent Variable: DX
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/28/13  Time: 15:15
Sample (adjusted): 1954 1988
Included obrvations: 35 after adjustments
Convergence achieved after 36 iterations
MA Backcast: 1953
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob. 
AR(1)
-0.318573
0.180467
-1.765272
0.0871
MA(1)
0.997485
0.061861
16.12456
0.0000
R-squared
0.334188
    Mean dependent var
5.080000
Adjusted R-squared
0.292574
    S.D. dependent var
9.082686
S.E. of regression
7.639320
    Akaike info criterion
6.986311
Sum squared resid
1867.495
    Schwarz criterion
7.119626
Log likelihood
-119.2604
    Hannan-Quinn criter.
7.032331
F-statistic
8.030790
    Durbin-Watson stat
1.797737
Prob(F-statistic)
0.001492
(1-B)xt= [(1+0.997485B)εt]/(1-0.318573B)

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