TED演讲：如果让⼤⾃然⾃由发展，地球会变成什么样？{"url":"/wxvideocache/ca700f2867a2a23d2cd9df17404ad5a3.mp4","desc":"
从特殊的⿊⾜雪貂到可以抵御变暖⽔域的珊瑚，现在利⽤基因组学和合成⽣物学的基因拯救⼯作正在帮助⼤⾃然蓬勃发展。但是，尽管这种⼲预取得了巨⼤的成功，保护创新者瑞安·费兰 (Ryan Phelan) 指出，对意外后果的恐惧往往会扼杀创新——有进⼀步灭绝的风险。
因此，她提出了接受基因⼯具的“预期后果”的理由，这些⼯具有能⼒恢复地球的平衡、丰富度和⽣物多样性。
演讲者：Ryan Phelan
演讲题⽬: The intended conquences of helping nature thrive
Meet Elizabeth Ann. She's a black-footed ferret, America's most endangered animal. She was cloned using cells from a ferret that lived 33 years ago. Elizabeth Ann is a new hope for the future of her species, a chance to actually restore lost genetic diversity. She was born for this intended conquence.
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来认识⼀下伊丽莎⽩·安。她是⼀只⿊⾜雪貂，是美国最濒危的动物。她是⽤⼀只⽣活在33年前的雪貂⾝
上的细胞克隆的。伊丽莎⽩·安是这个物种未来的新希望，也给遗传多样性的真正恢复提供了可能性。她就是为此⽽⽣的。
I've been working in conrvation for the last 10 years with innovative scientists from around the world to bring biotechnology to wildlife conrvation. We need to solve the escalating threats to biodiversity from climate change, habitat loss, fragmented populations and wildlife dias. The are the unintended conquences of the human-dominated time we live in. A time when we need new tools for the conrvation toolbox and with genetic rescue, we can actually help stop more species from crossing the line into extinction. And the black-footed ferret is a great example.
在过去的10年⾥，我⼀直从事⽣态保护⼯作，与来⾃世界各地的创新科学家⼀起将⽣物技术应⽤于野⽣动植物保护。我们要解决不断升级的威胁，从⽓候变化到⽣物多样性，再到栖息地丧失、种群分散和野⽣动植物疾病。这些都是未曾预料的后果，就发⽣在我们⼈类主导的时代。⽣态保护需要新的⼿段，使⽤基因拯救技术，我们可以帮助更多物种免于灭绝。⿊⾜雪貂就是⼀个很好的例⼦。
The black footed-ferret historically ranged all across the Great Plains of North America, from Canada to Mexico. That is, until their habitat was converted to ranches and farmland. By 1981, there was only one colony of ferrets living in Wyoming. They were brought into captivity, and the US Fish and
Wildlife Service has successfully been breeding and releasing the individuals back into the wild for the last 30 years.
⿊⾜雪貂的⾜迹曾经遍布整个北美⼤平原，从加拿⼤⼀直到墨西哥。直到后来，他们的栖息地变成了牧场和农⽥。到1981年，整个怀俄明州只剩下⼀个雪貂群。它们被⼈⼯圈养起来，美国鱼类及野⽣动植物管理局在过去的30年⾥，将它们成功繁殖并放归野外。
But all 600 living ferrets today are the descendants of just ven ancestors. And with inbreeding that jeopardizes their long-term survival in the wild. To solve this challenge of a lack of genetic variation, we reached back in time. Luckily, scientists had the foresight. Starting in 1975, Dr. Oliver Ryder and his team at the San Diego Zoo started banking endangered species, and it was with one of the cell lines that we were able to actually bring in a new individual who lived 33 years ago, who had unique genetic variation.
但所有600只现存的雪貂都来⾃共同的七个祖先。近亲繁殖不利于它们在野外的长期⽣存。为了解决缺乏遗传变异的难题，我们追溯到了过去。幸运的是，科学家们早有远见。从1975年开始，奥利弗·赖德博⼠和他在圣地亚哥动物园的团队就开始储存濒危物种（基因），正是利⽤这些细胞系，我们才能真正引⼊⼀个新个体，⽣活在33年前，拥有独特遗传变异的个体。
Elizabeth Ann is a result of that cloning. She has three times more genetic variation than any living ferret today. And when she breeds in the next couple of years, her offspring will help create greater resilience for her species.
伊丽莎⽩·安就是这次克隆的结果。她具有的遗传变异性是其他任何现存雪貂的三倍。当她在接下来⼏年⾥繁殖时，她的后代将有助于为该物种创造更强的适应⼒。
后代将有助于为该物种创造更强的适应⼒。
Now Elizabeth Ann isn't the only time that we've done cloning. We’ve worked with the Przewalski’s hors. The are the only true species of wild hor remaining in the world. Historically, they were native to Central Asia, but they roamed all the way from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean for centuries. Until they were basically extinct in the wild, with only veral hors left in captivity. Conrvationists have reintroduced some of tho hors since 1960, back into the wild. But all 2,000 hors all living today are again at risk of inbreeding. And many scientists refer to this challenge as the extinction vortex, when small, fragmented populations lo genetic variation and become at risk for the vortex of extinction as their populations dwindle.
伊丽莎⽩·安并不是⼈类实现克隆的唯⼀案例。我们已将其应⽤在普⽒野马⾝上。它们是世界上仅存的
宏碁显示器
真正的野马种类。普⽒野马原产于中亚，但⼏个世纪以来，它们从太平洋沿岸⼀路漫游直⾄⼤西洋沿岸。直到它们在野外基本灭绝，只剩下寥寥⼏匹被⼈⼯圈养。⾃1960年以来，环保主义者已将其中⼀些马重新放归野外。但是现存的2,000匹马再次⾯临近亲繁殖的危机。许多科学家把这种情况称为灭绝漩涡，微⼩⽽分散的种群失去遗传变异，随着种群数量减少，就会⾯临灭绝漩涡的危机。
Now, with genetic rescue, we can rever this extinction vortex by bringing a new genetic variation and increasing the long-term survival of the populations. And that’s exactly what we did with this Przewalski’s foal named Kurt. That's actually his surrogate mother to the right. She's an American Quarter Hor, a different species. But Kurt's genome is all wild hor. Now, here's Kurt, exactly one year later, this August. He's a wild, healthy, vibrant Przewalski's hor.
现在有了基因拯救技术，我们就可以扭转这种灭绝漩涡，通过增加新的遗传变异以及提⾼这些种群的长期存活率。这正是我们对这只名为库尔特的⼩普⽒野马所做的事。画⾯右边是他的代孕妈妈。她是⼀匹美国夸特马，与库尔特的物种并不相同。但库尔特的基因组都是野马基因。这是库尔特，在这之后⼀年，这是今年⼋⽉的照⽚。他是⼀匹野性、健康、充满活⼒的普⽒野马。
Now, the genetic rescue stories could not have happened without the collaboration of multiple partners and the tools of biotechnology. Fundamental to all of this is the most esntial tool, is geno
mic quencing and the power of bringing that information into the light to help the management of the species. In addition, the bio banking, the cell culturing and the in vitro technologies have made this kind of genetic rescue possible. But even the technologies are not widely adopted by conrvation. We hope to change that.
这些基因拯救故事本可能不会发⽣，幸亏有许多合作伙伴的帮助，以及⽣物技术⼯具。所有这⼀切的基础和最重要的⼯具，就是基因组测序，以及相关技术信息的公开，都有助于更好地保护这些物种。此外，⽣物银⾏、细胞培养和体外技术都使基因拯救计划变得可⾏。但即使是这些技术也没有被环保组织⼴泛采⽤。我们希望改变这样的状况。
Emerging technologies of genetic engineering hold the promi of helping species adapt to climate change, solve wildlife dia problems, and even help solve invasive species problems. But very often the technologies never get out of the starting gate becau the fear of unintended conquences absolutely stymies even the most basic innovation at the get-go.
新兴的基因⼯程技术有望帮助物种适应⽓候变化，解决野⽣动植物疾病问题，甚⾄有助于解决⼊侵物种问题。但很多时候，这些技术连起点都迈不出，因为对意外后果的恐惧毫⽆疑问会阻碍创新，哪怕是最基础的技术创新。
Probably there's no more urgent need to overcome some of this reluctance to u the technologies than in the ca of coral. Coral, as many of you know, are the most diver and rich ecosystems in the world. They provide a rich biodiversity for reef-dwelling fish and all ocean life. And yet, sadly, 50 percent of the Great Barrier Reef has been lost already to climate change and environmental degradation. Estimates predicts that by 2050, we could lo as much as 90 percent of the coral in the world.
我们在某些领域迫切需要克服拒绝这些技术的想法，特别是在珊瑚保护的领域。珊瑚，正如你们许多⼈所知，是世界上最多样化的⽣态系统。它们提供了丰富的⽣物多样性，造福礁栖鱼类和所有海洋⽣物。然⽽，可悲的是，⼤堡礁的50%已经消失，原因是⽓候变化和环境衰退。据估计，到2050年，我们可能会失去世界上多达90%的珊瑚。
There is hope. Scientists around the world are utilizing new technologies to cryoprerve even living coral fragments that can be transplanted onto artificial reefs. This is just the beginning of some of the work that is pioneering and can happen. I'm most excited about the u of the new technologies for developing stem cells. Now the stem cells could be ud to actually genome edit in thermal resilience to warming oceans.
但希望还在。世界各地的科学家正在利⽤新技术冷冻保存活珊瑚碎⽚，这些碎⽚可以移植到⼈⼯鱼礁上。这只是开始着⼿做⼀些具备可⾏性和开创性的⼯作。最令我感到兴奋的是开发⼲细胞新技术的使⽤。现在，这些⼲细胞可⽤于对海洋变暖的热弹性进⾏真正的基因组编辑。
Now, you may be looking at that and saying, \"Genetically modified corals? What about the unintended conquences?\" This question comes up so often with any innovation in science, we decided to actually identify just how often, when humans intervene, did they cau the disasters that people fear so much. And yes, your classic stories of humans intervening in nature and causing disasters, like bringing rodents to islands, that stowed away on colonial sailing ships. The invasive species and others have caud greater than 60 percent of the extinctions worldwide since the early 1500s.
现在，你可能会看着它说，“转基因珊瑚？之前说的可能意外后果呢？”这个问题经常出现在科学创新中，因此我们决定实际探究⼀下，当⼈类⼲预⾃然活动时，是否经常造成令⼈类恐惧的灾难后果。是的，你可能听过许多⼈类⼲预⾃然并造成灾难的经典故事，⽐如啮齿动物藏在殖民帆船⾥并被带到岛屿上的故事。⾃1500年代初以来，包括⼊侵物种在内的诸多因素已导致全球60%以上的物种灭绝。
And then there's the poster child for intentionally releasing the poisonous cane toad to Australia. Bac
k in 1935, the sugar cane industry brought this invasive, poisonous cane toad in to solve their problem with beetles in their crops. It didn't do much for the beetles, and instead, since 1935, it has continued to work its way across Australia, leaving nothing in its wake and killing native species all along the way.
典型代表是澳⼤利亚引⼊有毒⽢蔗蟾蜍。回到1935年，⽢蔗⾏业引⼊了这种⼊侵性的有毒⽢蔗蟾蜍，为的是解决他们庄稼上的甲⾍问题。它对甲⾍没有产⽣太⼤作⽤，反⽽⾃1935年以来，它持续在澳⼤利亚各地活动，所过之地⼨草不留，⼀路杀死本地物种。
The disasters stoke the minds of people about fear of intervention, and yet they happened in an era when there was little regard for the overall environmental ecosystem. And they were done, in some cas, even with profit motivation in mind, they weren't done for conrvation benefit. And sadly, we never hear about the success stories. So when we looked at the rearch about what happens when conrvation intend to intervene in nature, we found a very different story. All across the globe, for over a century, scientists have been introducing and reintroducing plants and animals with no environmental harm.
这些灾难激起了⼈们对⼲预⾃然的恐惧，但它们发⽣的年代，⼏乎没有对整体环境⽣态系统的关注。
在某些故事中，⼈类⼲预可能实现了预期，但那也是从利润动机去考虑，并不是出于保护⾃然的⽬的。可悲的是，我们从未听说过成功的故事。因此，当我们关注相关研究，想弄清环保⾏动⼲预⾃然时会发⽣什么时，我们发现了⼀个完全不同的故事。在全球范围内，⼀个多世纪以来，科学家们⼀直在引⼊和引回对环境⽆害的植物和动物。
You may know the classic success story of introducing wolves to Yellowstone. But that's not the only one. Think about this. Over 1,000 species have been introduced all across North America for the last 125 years. There has been no documented ca, except one, of any intervention causing a local extinction. That was a native freshwater fish from a small spring in Alabama. Ninety-nine percent of the interventions have succeeded in achieving their intended conquence.
你可能知道其中的成功典型：将狼引⼊黄⽯公园的故事。但这并不是唯⼀的成功案例。了解⼀下这个。在过去的125年⾥，超过1,000个物种被引⼊北美。⽽仅有⼀次记录在案的个例，显⽰⼲预导致了局部灭绝。那次失败祸及了阿拉巴马州⼀个⼩泉的原⽣淡⽔鱼。但99%的⼲预措施已成功实现其预期结果。
So you may look at this and wonder, if intervention is so common in nature, why aren't we more aware of this? And I think it's becau sometimes success is actually invisible to us. Take, for exampl
e, this image of the Great Smoky Mountains, America's most visited national park. What we e as pristine wilderness is actually a very managed environment. Tho elk you e, they're the result of being abnt for 200 years and being reintroduced. That meadow is a result of repeated controlled burns. And non-native incts have been ud to control pathogens and invasive pests.
你看到这⾥可能会纳闷，如果⼲预在⾃然界中如此普遍，为什么我们没有意识到这⼀点？我认为这是因为有时候成功在我们见不到的地⽅。以这张⼤雾⼭的图⽚为例，它是美国访问量最⼤的国家公园。我们所看到的原始荒野实际上是⼀个⾼度治理下的环境。你看到的那些麋⿅，它们是消失200年后⼜被重新引⼊的结果。那⽚草地是反复受控燃烧的结果。外来昆⾍已被⽤于控制病原体和⼊侵性害⾍。
And there's one more iconic species that could come back to this forest. That's the American chestnut tree. Historically, this majestic tree rained down sweet nuts and fed humans and animals alike for centuries. For thousands of years, it was the most abundant tree species across the eastern deciduous forest. It's lumber was ud to create fine musical instruments and hardwood furniture. And until 1800, there were four billion of the trees across the forest until blight, a fungal blight that came in, imported, invasive species, absolutely wiped out the trees. By 1950, all four billion trees were decimated.
还有⼀种标志性的物种可能会回到这⽚森林。那就是美国栗树。这个雄伟的树种在⼏个世纪以来不断地洒下甜美的坚果，为⼈类和动物提供⾷物。千百年来，它曾是东部落叶林中数量最多的树种。它的⽊材被⽤来制作精美的乐器和硬⽊家具。直到1800年，森林中还有40亿棵栗树存活。后来⼀种真菌枯萎病开始蔓延，病原体是⼊侵物种，彻底消灭了这些树⽊。到1950年，40亿棵树全部毁灭了。
Now, since that time, scientists have tried for decades to figure out how to create a blight-resistant chestnut tree. And it's happened. Scientists at the State University of New York have identified a way inrting a single gene from wheat that will convey blight resistance. The genetically modified trees right now are the first chance in 100 years to restore the majestic trees to the forest. The US Department of Agriculture right now is reviewing the trees for relea into the wild.
从那时起，科学家们⼏⼗年来⼀直试图创造⼀种抗枯萎病的栗树。然后真的成功了。纽约州⽴⼤学的科学家们已经找到了⼀种⽅法：插⼊从⼩麦中提取的，能够表达抗枯病性的基因。现在，这些转基因树⽊是近100年来的第⼀次转机，能够让这些雄伟的树⽊重现森林。美国农业部⽬前正在审查这些树⽊，以便让它们重现野外。
The are all bold initiatives. Engineering coral to withstand warming waters, restoring the American chestnut tree, the genetic rescue of the black-footed ferret. All of the initiatives will require public e
ngagement and public support. I think it matters how people think about intervention. I believe we need to bring more balance to how we think about risk. There will always be unexpected outcomes to any innovation in science, but we have the tools and technology today and the protocols to minimize risks and maximize benefits.
这些都是很⼤胆的举措。改造珊瑚以抵御变暖的海⽔，重现美洲栗树，以及⿊⾜雪貂的基因拯救计划。这些举措都需要公众参与和⽀持。我认为⼈们如何看待⼲预很重要。在如何看待风险问题上，我相信我们需要找到更好的平衡点。科学创新总会有意外结果，但我们有现代⼯具和技术，以及相关协议，可以实现风险最⼩化，收益最⼤化。
So the next time you hear about some bold new idea, I hope you'll think first about the intended conquences. We don't have the luxury of time to stand by and wait and e what happens for the thousands of plants and animals at risk today. We know that doing nothing can cau extinction. Instead, let's carefully and intentionally plan with all the tools in the toolbox to achieve and create the future we want and not overreact to a future that we fear.4ps理论
瞬间的意思所以下次听到⼀些⼤胆的新想法时，希望你先考虑下预期的后果。我们没有富裕时间置⾝事外，冷眼旁观⾯临风险的成千上万动植物的未来⾛向。我们冷眼旁观，它们就会灭绝。相反，我们要认真专程地制定计划，充分利⽤⼈类的智慧结晶，实现和创造我们预期的未来，⽽不是对未来的过度恐惧。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Chris Anderson: Plea stay. I think this is so interesting. It ems to me, at the heart of what you're wrestling with each time is this, you know, it's a moral question. So most moral philosophers, I think, would say that fundamentally, there's not a difference between intentional action and intentional inaction that leads to the same thing. So why is it that in so many areas of public policy and certainly in the environmental movement, there is this huge distinction that people make between action and inaction? They would rather not act and e something go wrong than take the risk of acting. Why?
有雨的诗句克⾥斯·安德森：请等⼀下。我觉得这太有意思了。在我看来，你每次论证的核⼼都是⼀个道德问题。所以我认为，⼤多数道德哲学家会说，从根本上说，有意的作为和有意不作为并没有区别，只要它们产⽣的结果是相同的，那么为什么在如此多的公共政策领域，当然，我是指环保活动领域，⼈们会在⾏动与否之间如此泾渭分明呢？他们选择不采取⾏动，哪怕出现问题，也不愿冒采取⾏动的风险。这其中的原因是什么？
Ryan Phelan: You know, I think it's public pressure that they feel as scientists innovating. They don't want to get it初中入团申请书
Ryan Phelan: You know, I think it's public pressure that they feel as scientists innovating. They don't want to get it wrong. They have funders that challenged them on taking on innovation and action. They run the risk of losing jobs, funding, curity, public shame. It's so much easier for people to stand by and do nothing and not take ownership of it. And I think this is really what we're trying to say, is if we can encourage scientists and innovators to be bold, it will behoove all of us.
瑞恩·费伦：我认为，他们是感受到了公众压⼒，以科学家⾝份创新的压⼒，他们不想犯错。资助⽅也阻碍了他们的创新⾏动。他们要创新，就必须冒失败的风险：失去⼯作、资助、安全，遭受公众耻辱。袖⼿旁观就容易得多，什么都不做，不扛起任何责任。我认为我们要提倡这⼀点：如果能⿎励科学家和创新者胆⼦⼤⼀点，我们所有⼈都应该去⿎励他们。
CA: Right. So one advantage of inaction is just that you're less likely to be blamed.
克⾥斯·安德森：是的。因此，不作为的好处之⼀就是你不太可能会被指责。
RP: Exactly. You don't get credit either.
瑞恩·费伦：没错。你也不会有功劳。
CA: No. Ryan, the same technologies, synthetic biology and so forth, like in principle, they allow a
ctual de-extinction, species that the planet hasn't en for years, in principle, we could bring back. Are there any projects you're involved with that excite you or possibly terrify you, where we could e such de-extinction taking place?
克⾥斯·安德森：对。瑞恩，这些相同的技术、合成⽣物学等等，好像原则上，它们能实现真正的复活，⽐如地球上多年未见的物种，原则上，我们可以让它们重现。你参与的项⽬中，有没有让你兴奋或恐惧的项⽬，其中就包含了这样的复活计划？
RP: Well, technically the American chestnut tree is almost extinct. You know, people will e some sprouts come up becau the roots are there, but they basically, you know, fail within 15 years. So they're not totally extinct, but they're very clo to it. You know, we are working on everything from the woolly mammoth, as some of you may know, to the pasnger pigeon. But to me, the most motivating part of the technologies is, de-extinction is just a big, hairy, audacious goal. And if we get there, it'll be grand. But getting there, all of the genetic rescue tools and technology can be applied to save endangered species. It's all a fundamental tool kit. It's esntial.
瞿秋白的故事瑞恩·费伦：从技术上讲，美国栗树⼏乎就灭绝了。⼈们可能会看到⼀些新芽长出来，因为那⾥还有根，但它们基本上在15年就不会再长了。所以他们没有完全灭绝，但也很接近灭绝了。我们研究很多
⽣物，你们中的⼀些⼈可能知道，⼤到猛犸象，⼩到旅鸽。但这些技术中最让我有动⼒的是，已灭绝⽣物的复活只是⼀个宏⼤的、模糊的、⼤胆的⽬标。如果我们成功了，会很伟⼤。但成功之前，所有这些基因拯救⼯具和技术都可以⽤于拯救濒危物种。这些技术就是基础⼯具包。不可或缺。
CA: Well, Ryan, you're an extremely compelling and persuasive and trustworthy voice, I would say. So thank you so much for the work you're doing and for sharing this.
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克⾥斯·安德森：瑞恩，我想说，你所述内容⾮常有说服⼒，⾮常值得信赖。⾮常感谢你们所做的⼯作，以及与我们的分享。
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