摘要
科学技术飞速发展的今天，新兴技术层出不穷，给国家和社会带来的影响也越来越大，各国都在抢占新兴技术的制高点。在某种意义上说，未来国家、产业和企业的竞争是新兴技术的竞争，而新兴技术产生的经济效应的大小则是最为核心的问题。但如何评估新兴技术的经济效应，进而对其进行选择及大力支持其发展是摆在国家和企业面前的一道难题，同时这也是目前国内理论界研究非常薄弱的方面。当前，国内外关于新兴技术经济效应评估方面的研究还不够成熟，提出评估新兴技术经济效应科学有效且易于实施的方法，是本文研究的目标。
本文将自然科学中的地震理论应用于社会经济问题的分析中，建立了基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应的评估框架并进行了实证分析。首先，从新兴技术的内涵出发，分别从新兴技术经济效应的评估内容和评估方法两个方面，对新兴技术经济效应评估研究状况进行了评述。其次，借鉴地震学中的―震级原理‖，提出基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应评估方法，即将衡量地震强度的麦加利等级方法引入新兴技术经济效应评估中，提出了新兴技术经济效应评估等级量表，将回归方法和震级原理相结合应用于经济体系中，构建了用于评估新兴技术经济效应的理论模型，解决了新兴技术经济效应评估中的量化描述问题。再次，利用“震级法”所构建的评估模型，对生物医药、航空航天、通信传输技术领域的新兴技术做实证研究，实证研究结果较好地验证了本文提出的基于震级分析的评估框架。最后，提出应用震级法评估新兴技术经济效应时的问题及未来研究展望。本研究成果对于国家专项基金的合理分配及有效地布局新兴
产业提供了政策参考。
关键词新兴技术；经济效应；震级法；评估
Abstract
With the rapid development of science and technology, emerging technology after another, who is more and more impact on the state and society, so many countries are to ize the commanding heights of the emerging technologies. In a n, the future competitiveness of state, industry and enterpris is the competition of emerging technologies, thus the size of the economic effects of emerging technologies is the most core of the problem. But how to asss the economic effects of emerging technologies, and thus their choices and the strong support of its development at the national and enterpri in the face of a difficult problem, which is also currently the theoretical circle is very weak aspect. At prent, domestic and international rearch on the asssment of economic effects of emerging technologies are not mature enough. Therefore propo sing a method to asss economic effects of emerging technologies, with scientific and effective and easy to implement, is the goal of this study.
In this paper, a method bad on magnitude of the economic effects of emerging technologies for th
e evaluation framework was established, and last empirical analysis was made. First, this paper discusd the economic impact of emerging technologies respectively from their evaluation content and evaluation methods. Bad on review of economic impact asssment of emerging technologies from scholars both at home and abroad, by references of relevant rearches, the paper propod the idea using "ismic approach" that is introducing the ismic scale of Mercalli ud for measuring the intensity of earthquake into economic impact asssment of emerging technologies, propod the scale of economic impact asssment of emerging technologies. In this paper the principle of ismic was applied into economic system, and the theoretical framework was constructed to evaluate the economic impact of emerging technologies in the economic system. At last the quantitative and descriptive problem about estimating economic impact of emerging technologies was solved. The empirical analysis results showed that currently the economic impact of emerging technologies in communication transmission filed is larger than aerospace, and smaller than biomedical.Through the empirical rearch on relevant areas of emerging technologies, the propod evaluation framework bad on the analysis of ismic was better verified. Finally, the results of this rearch provide policy consideration for the rational allocation of the national special fund and effective layout of the new industry.
Keywords emerging technologies; economic impact; ismic approach; asssment
目录
摘要............................................................ I Abstract ........................................................ III 目录............................................................ V 第1章绪论 (1)二次元头像男生
1.1选题背景、目的及意义 (1)
1.1.1选题背景 (1)
1.1.2 研究目的及意义 (1)
1.2 国内外研究现状 (2)
三张纸打一字>成绩分析表1.2.1 新兴技术的内涵及特征 (2)
1.2.2 新兴技术经济效应的定义及分类 (3)
1.2.3 关于新兴技术经济效应评估内容的研究 (5)
1.2.4 关于新兴技术经济效应评估方法的研究 (6)
黑晶面板1.2.5 研究现状评述 (7)
1.3 论文研究内容、方法及创新点 (8)
1.3.1 论文的研究内容 (8)
1.3.2 论文的研究方法 (9)
1.3.3 论文的创新点 (10)
第2章基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应评估框架 (11)
2.1 基于震级法的评估设想 (11)
2.1.1 震级法及震级的定义 (11)
2.1.2 地震现象与新兴技术产生的关联性 (12)
2.1.3 震级法评估新兴技术经济效应的科学性分析 (13)
2.1.4 震级法评估新兴技术经济效应的可行性分析 (14)世界上最厉害的狗
孕妇能吃山楂吗2.2 震级原理 (14)
2.2.1 地理体系中的震级公式 (14)
2.2.2 震级原理应用于经济体系的震级公式 (15)
2.3 基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应评估步骤 (17)
2.4 本章小结 (19)
第3章基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应评估模型的建立 (21)
上海话日常用语骂人
不快乐的图片3.1 新兴技术经济效应的震级模型指标选取 (21)
3.1.1 经济效应的影响对象的选取 (21)
