2020年高中数模美赛B题中文及解法思路
2020年高中数模美赛B题中文及解法思路
解法思路：
1）计算48种濒危物种需要保护的费用村情调研报告
，计算筹资额度，求出最佳筹资计划。
2) 根据48种濒危物种生存情况，用回归模型确定保护费用与时间的关系，从而确定筹资计划（时间线要求的资金）。
问题B
问题：资助生物多样性保护
参考为问题B提供的数据：在这些数据的情况下，电子表格显示了每个特定项目每年所需的预计资金。数据单元格中的破折号（-）表示该特定项目不需要任何资金。
背景：数千种植物和动物面临着可能导致它们灭绝的威胁，而可以拯救它们的生物多样性保
护行动往往是可用的。当生物多样性保护资金有限时，保护管理者面临着艰难的决定。管理者需要决定他们应该资助哪些项目来最好地实现他们的目标，其中最重要的是拯救最多的物种。如果某些保护行动的效益因项目而异，这些行动对特定项目的成本不同，并且这些行动的可用资金远远少于支持所有拟议项目所需的资金，这一点尤为重要。
使这一问题变得更加困难的一个问题是，每个项目的时间线和生命周期各不相同。保护项目可能需要数年或数十年的时间，项目期间产生成本的时间表可能会因项目的范围、位置、目标物种和负责机构的不同而有很大差异。这意味着保护项目的预算必须为项目的整个生命周期提供足够的资金。此外，管理人员需要密切监控其预算，以有效分配资金，因为资源需求因项目和时间而异。例如，当一些项目需要更多资金时，他们需要确保有足够的资源可用，而当一些项目要求较少时，他们则需要充分利用。
目标：确定如何有效地投资于长期开展的濒危和受威胁物种的生物多样性保护活动，以及这些活动的预期成本随时间而变化。
HiMCM案例：佛罗里达州（美国）植物保护优先行动和资金
佛罗里达州是植物生物多样性保护的热点之一，20%的物种受到威胁。这些植物物种中只有2%（约64种）受到美国濒危物种法（ESA）的保护，但目前资金不足，无法保护数量有限的物种。佛罗里达州珍稀植物保护基金会（FRPCE）（见附件A）是一个玄关走廊
由保护管理人员牵头的信托基金，目的是随着时间的推移提供资金，以支持佛罗里达州发现的珍稀濒危植物物种的研究、保护和养护。该信托基金旨在产生足够的捐赠，以支付保护的前期成本和传统筹款活动目前难以满足的长期成本。
要求：
1.鉴于需要恢复佛罗里达州受到威胁的植物物种，并在未来对其进行管理，开发一个模型，向FRPCE董事会建议“长期和可靠”融资所需的最低筹资额。为了解决这一HiMCM问题，我们将把我们的分析局限于所附数据集中的48种濒危物种（附件B）。请注意，数据库中的每一行都表示一个物种的恢复项目。
a、确定并讨论FRPCE董事会在其保护工作和预算决策中应考虑的相关目标。使用这些目标，您将使用哪些措施来评估拟议的筹资计划是“最佳”的？b.列出并解决濒危植物物种的一些一般特征。指出您将在决策模型中使用的这些物种保护所涉及的因素。
c、为FRPCE董事会制定一个模型或算法（或一组模型或算法），用于确定筹资计划（时间线要求的资金），该计划将最大限度地减少所需的资金，但仍获得必要的资源来实施48个物种的恢复项目，并在未来对其进行管理。
2.应用您的模型，向FRPCE董事会建议恢复项目的优先融资顺序，以便在一段时间内平衡可用资金与这些项目所需的支出。讨论您的建议。
3。.给FRPCE董事会写一份一页的非技术备忘录，解释你的结果，并根据你的建模和分析提出建议。总页数不超过25页的PDF解决方案应包括：
一页汇总表。
目录。
您的完整解决方案。
一页备忘录。
参考列表。
注：HiMCM比赛现在有25页的限制。您提交的所有方面都超过了25页的限制（汇总表、目录、参考列表和任何附录）。
Problem B
Problem: Funding Biodiversity Conrvation
Reference the data provided for Problem B: In the ca of the data, the spreadsheet shows the projected funds required for each year of each particular project. The dashes (—) in the data cells mean there is NO required funding projected for that particular project.
Background: Thousands of species of plants and animals face threats that could result in their extinction, while biodiversity conrvation actions that could save them are often available. Conrvation managers face difficult decisions when there is limited funding for biodiversity conrvation. Managers need to decide which projects they sho辞职报告书
uld fund to best achieve their objectives, not the least of which is to save the most species. This is p
articularly important if the benefits of certain conrvation actions vary across projects, the costs of the actions for specific projects differ, and the available funding for the actions is considerably less than is needed to support all propod projects.
One issue that makes this a more difficult problem is the varying timeline and life cycle of each project. Conrvation projects can take years or decades, and the schedule of when costs are incurred during the project can vary significantly depending on the project's scope, location, targeted species, and responsible agency. This means that budgets for conrvation projects must provide adequate funds for the entire lifetime of the project. Additionally, managers need to cloly monitor their budgets to efficiently allocate funds as demand for resources vary across projects and time. For example, they need to ensure they have adequate resources available for times when some projects require more funding, and take advantage of times when some projects require less.
Objective: Determine how to efficiently invest in biodiversity conrvation activities for endangered and threatened species that take place over long time frames, and who expected costs change over that time.
HiMCM Ca: Prioritize Action and Funding for Plant Conrvation in Florida (USA)
Florida is one of the hotspots for plant biodiversity conrvation, with 20% of its species imperiled. Only 2% of the plant species (~64) receive protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), but funding is currently inadequate for protecting even this limited number of species. The Florida Rare Plant Conrvation Endowment (FRPCE) (e Attachment A) is a trust fund spearheaded by conrvation managers to provide funds over time to support rearch, protection, and conrvation of rare and imperiled plant species found in Florida. This trust fund aims to generate an adequate endowment to pay for both the up-front costs of conrvation and the long-term costs that are currently difficult to meet with traditional fundraising campaigns.
Requirements:
1. Given the need to recover imperiled plant species in Florida and manage them into the future, develop a model to advi the FRPCE Board of the minimum fundraising required for "long-term and reliable" funding. For the purpos of this HiMCM problem, we will limit
our analysis to the 48 imperiled species included in the attached data t (Attachment B). Note that each row in the databa indicates a recovery project for a species.
a. Identify and discuss relevant objectives that the FRPCE Board should consider in their conrvation efforts and budget那些流年
ing decisions. Using the objectives, what measures would you u to evaluate a propod fundraising plan as being the "best?" b. List and address some general characteristics of imperiled plant species. Indicate the factors involved in the species' protection that you will u in your decision model.
