决策理论与方法（两个应用例子）
1决策分析的概念和分类
概念：为了达到目的在几个方案中选择出最佳方案。
四季团分类：确定性策略：在外界条件完全确定的情况做决策
风险决策：在外界条件不知，未来外界条件可知的情况下做决策
不确定决策：在未来条件也不可知的条件下做决策
2决策分析的定性方法和定量方法
定性：德尔菲法，头脑风暴法，名义群体法
清末之盖世帝王
荨麻疹禁忌定量：直观判断法，线性规划方法（任务确定后如何以最低成本完成，如何在现有资源下产生最大收益）
3货币的时间价值
是指货币经历一段时间的投资和再投资所增加的价值
养鸡秘诀
4盈亏决策分析
各自不确定因素（投资、成本、价格等）的变化会影响收益，当因素变化达到临界时，会影响方案取舍，决策分析就是找出这个平衡点。
5决策树（举个例子）
每个决策都会引出多个不同事件和结构，把这种决策或事件分支画成图形。
干咳嗽无痰是什么原因
Decision theory and method
1 Concept and classification of decision analysis
公开课幼儿园
Concept: Choo the best solution among veral options in order to achieve the goal.
Classification: Deterministic strategy: making decisions when the external conditions are fully determined
健身频率 Risk decision-making: making decisions without knowing the external conditions and knowing the future external conditions
Uncertain decision making: making decisions in conditions where future conditions are not known
2 Qualitative methods and quantitative methods for decision analysis
Qualitative: Delphi method, brainstorming method, nominal group method
瓶子草
Quantitative: intuitive judgment, linear programming method (how to achieve the lowest cost after the task is determined, how to generate the maximum benefit under the existing resources)
3 time value of money
Refers to the added value of the currency's investment and reinvestment over a period of time.
4 profit and loss decision analysis
Changes in their respective uncertainties (investment, cost, price, etc.) will affect the return. When the factor changes to a critical point, it will affect the choice of the plan. Decision analysis is to find this balance point.
5 decision tree
Each decision leads to a number of different events and structures, and the decision or event branch is graphed.
