The Econometer
One Third of the Global Population Lives in Africa and China
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hina relead its census data in May, reveal- ing th a t th e c o u n try rem ains the most
populous country in the world w ith 1.41178 billion people. Once this is added to Africa’s population of 1.2 billion, it reprents one-third of the total global population of 7.8 billion people. Whilst the population growth has decread in recent years, China remains an im portant economy for m arket expansion strategies, with a middle class who spend ing power is growing fast compared to other global markets. Africa on the other hand, is continuing its own path of increasing its number of middle-class consumers, with some African markets being among the few w ho GDP grew am idst the
2020 pandemic. Whilst Africa is far behind in terms of total economic output, its similar population size and potential has some interesting trends to follow, should Africa achieve further success in growth.
COVID-19 im p a c te d th e growth of markets in all regions, with developing economies faring wor compared to the rest of the world. According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2020, global GDP d
用难道造句>反馈意见怎么写eclined by 3.3 percent, with advanced econom ies declining by 4.7 percent. The EU w as partic ularly hit, experiencing a 6.1 percent decline. Africa w as also affected, however less so than other markets. The region contracted by 1.9 percent, with North Afiica declining by 1.7 percent and Sub-Sahai'an Africa by
2 percent. Current estimates for 2021 in Africa are so far positive, with the World Bank saying that Eastern and Southern African countries are expected to grow by an average of 2.7 percent.Most of this growth depends on how markets in Africa will recover from the pandem ic during the cond half of this year. China s grow ing m id dle-class has benefitted from th e m e a su re s th e c o u n try took early in the pandem ic, w ith d o m estic sp en d in g in retail stores and tourism being on the ri. Chine consum ers are key drivers of China's “dual circulation” development pattern, in which the domestic and foreign m arkets com plement and reinforce each other, witli the domestic market as the mainstay. As China em erged
from a pandem ic lockdown, the m easures helped boost domestic economy. For Africa to achieve this, it depends on how the continent continues to contain the pandemic through increa in vaccine rollouts.Africa, like many other global markets, was bet with chal lengeis brought about by the pan demic, as such GDP suffered, and overall purchasing power of its consumers reduced with it. Howev
er, as demonstrated by its strategic ally China，a large popu lation can navigate through the challenges and mitigate further issues. There are positive out looks for 2021 in Africa, China and the rest of the world, hence discussions around how best to leverage the opportunities in both, African markets and China, should not be discouraged.
China's GDP Growth, %, Q1 2018-Q1 2021-12
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 〇2 Q3 Q4 〇l
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China’s Monthly Retail Sales ，$tln ，％ y-o-y ， March 2017-March 2020
Retail Sales (LHS)
Growth Rate (RHS)
China’s CPI & PPI，April 2020-April 2021
'PPI —
cpi
92
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Note 1: Previous Year ■ 100
China’s Monthly Imports ，$bln ，％ y-o-y ， April 2018-April 2021
Imports (LHS)
Growth Rate (RHS)
220
China’s Official PMI，April 2020-April 2021
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M
J
J
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China's Monthly Exports, $bln, % y-o-y, April 2018-April 2021
Exports (LHS)
Growth Rate (RHS)
46
June 2021
1/Tunisia April: Tunisia and China signed an economic and technical cooperation agreement in Tunis. The new agreement with China will allow Tunisia to benefit from a Chine financial donation that will rve development in the country via new projects. Past China-aided projects in Tunisia include the Ben Arous sports center, the Tunisian diplomatic academy, the sports and cultural centers of Menzah 6 in the north of Tunis, the new university hospital In the south-eastern province of Sfax, and the construction of the Medjerda River canal.2/Egypt April: Egypt's Suez Canal Authority (SCA) agreed with a Chine shipbuilder to build five tugboats. Each of the five tugs will be with a bollard pull of 80 tons. The first tug will be delivered to Egypt in 14 months, the cond in 20 months and all the five tugs will be delivered in three years. The SCA is upgrading its fleets of dredgers and tugboats, not only to ea navigation in the Suez Canal but also to prepare for rescue operations inside and outside the SCA. For his part, Mostafa Kenawy, head of the dredging department at the SCA, said that besides the five tugs to be built in China, most of the spare parts at SCA workshops are made in China.
3/Zambia April: China State Construction Engineering
Corporation (CSCEC) has been awarded a contract for a water and sanitation improvement project in the northern part of Zambia. The firm has since engaged ven local firms as sub-contractors for the $27 million project which will improve water and sanitation rvices in Northern Province's two districts of Kasama and Mbala. The sub-contracting of the project was the fulfillment of the 20 percent sub-contracting policy which foreign firms are expected to offer to local ones.20th Anniversary of the BFA Annual Conference
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he Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2021 w as held in Boao in south China s Hainan Province on April 18-21. Currently in its 20th year, the them e of this year's conference was A World in C h a n g e ： Join H an d s to Strengthen Global Governance and Advance Belt and Road Cooperation. The event hosted leaders from countries in the Asia Pacific, the President of the 75th UN General Asmbly Volkan Bozkir and Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva. The conference is a non-governmental and nonprofit international organization aimed at fostering regional economic integration which took place both online and offline this year.
Key Economic Indicators
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 100.9 in Apill 2021, rising by 0.9 percent yeai' on year. This increa indicates a recovery in domestic demand, caud mostly by non-food prices such as increasing air ticket and hotel prices as well as retail oil prices. Food inflation, however, remains stable due to falling pork prices as officials work to improve supplies of the meat domestically. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) leaped to 106.8, going up
6.8 percent year on year, the highest recorded growth since October 201
7.
PM I in April
China s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April 2021 slipped to 51.1 from 51.9 in Maich 2021. Weakening domestic and overas demand affected production and short-term disruptions affected the cour of eco- nomic growth. In addition, the shortage of key interm ediate goods impacted the production of industrial goods like cars and home-u electronics. However, consumer demand is expected to pick up and return to normal as a result of vaccine rollouts.
The First CICPE Launched
China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Hainan Provincial Government launched the fii st China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE) in Haikou. the capital of Hainan Province. The event took place on May 7-10 and hosted 1,365 global brands from 69 countries as well as 1.263 domestic brands. For visitors of the event a special incremental duty-free allowance w as implemented upon buying items at the expo. The expo aim ed to stim ulate dom estic and overas consumption as a means of achieving growth. CA
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