The results for this ca are obtained using the accompanying spreadsheet Chapter 7- Specialty Packaging Corporation优秀教师评语. Given the clear asonal pattern in the data, the forecast is made using the static forecasting method and Winter’s model (both outlined in Chapter 7.
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加氟Static Forecasting Method君子兰开花夹箭怎么办
去湿气最好最快的方法The results for the static forecasting method is contained in the worksheet Static Forecastwith. For Black Plastics, the first step is to obtain deasonalized demand using Equation (7.2). This is obtained in Cells D31:D46. The next step is to run a regression between deasonalized demand and period value (contained in Cell B31:46). The results of the regression are contained in Cells R28:Z47. The deasonalized demand in period 0 is given by the Intercept in Cell S46. The trend is given by the value in Cell S47. The two values are ud to obtain the deasonalized demand values in Cells E29:E48. The ratio of the actual demand in Cells C29:48 and the deasonalized demand in Cells E29:E48 is ud to estimate the asonal factors in Cells F29:F48. The asonal factors are then averaged in Cells S53:S56. The average asonal factors are then ud to evaluate the forecasts in Cells G29:G60 using Equation (7.1). The results are as follows:幼儿园小班个人工作总结
The various error estimates are shown in Cells I29:P48.
For Clear plastics the methodology ud is identical except that the results are shown in Cells A64:Z96. The static forecast for Clear Plastic is as follows:
Winter’s Model
The evaluations for Winter’s model are shown in worksheet Winter. The first step in Winter’s model is to obtain initial estimates of level, trend and asonal factors. This is done exactly as in the Static Forecast method, except that the Intercept in Cell S46 (for Clear Plastic) becomes the level in period 0 (Cell D29), Cell S47 becomes the trend in period 0 (Cell E29) with initial asonal factors being estimated in Cells S53:S56 exactly as for the Static Model. The level, trend and asonal factors are then updated using Equations (7.18)-(7.20) with values of α, β, and γ as shown in Cells K20:22. In the spreadsheet the values of α, β, and γ are chon using Excel to minimize MAPE (in Cell O49). The may also be chon to minimize MAD (Cell M49) or MSE (Cell L49). The results with Winter’s model turn out to be the same as the results with the Static model becau the optimal value of α turn out to be 0. One can u the spreadsheet to experiment with other values of α, β, and γ.
