Lesson 4 The Economic Scene: A Global Perspective
经济景观：全球视野
(Excerpts)
1. In 1991,for the cond year in a row, the economies of low-income and middle-income countries virtually stagnated, as measured by an increa in per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Aggregate output for developing countries advanced by slightly less than 2 per cent during 1991 (similar to the weak performance of 1990), implying an
easing in per capita income of 0.1 per cent.
1991年，中低收入国家以人均国内生产总值（GDP）测算的经济增长连续两年处于停滞状态。1991年（与1990年的不景气状况相似），发展中国家的总产量的增长率略低于2%，这意味着其人均收入降低了0.1%。
2. Aggregate statistics for 1991 were influenced by the sharp decline in output in Central and Eastern Europe, as well
as by the adver effects of the Gulf crisis on veral economies in the Middle East. Excluding Central and Eastern Europe, growth in developing countries in 1991 was 3.4 per cent, compared with 3.8 per cent during the 1980s. Estimates of GDP growth by major geographic region show an acceleration in Latin America and in sub-Saharan Africa; an increa in China’s growth rate helped to sustain high rates of growth in the East Asia region.
1991年的总数据，不仅受到了海湾危机对中东几个国家的经济的有害作用的影响，而且也受到了中、东欧国
家的产量的急剧下降的影响。除去中、东欧国家，发展中国家1991年的经济增长率是 3.4%，而其八十年代的增长
率是 3.8%。对主要大国国内生产总值的增长情况的评估显示，拉丁美洲和撒哈拉沙漠以南地区是加速增长；中国
之增长率的上升使东亚地区的高增长率得以保持。
3. International conditions for growth in developing countries deteriorated in 1991. The ven major industrial countries (the G-7) experienced a significant slowdown in GDP growth—from 2.8 per cent i
n 1990 to 1.9 per cent during 1991 as recession gripped Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States and growth rates slowed in continental Europe and Japan. In important respects, the slowdown was different from tho that occurred during the 1970s and 1980s. Rather than reflecting the effect of disinflationary policies, weakness in demand was more cloly related to the loss of momentum that had built up during the long period of expansion that began in 1983. In addition, a common factor underlying the slowdown in many industrial countries was the cyclical deceleration in investment spending.
1991年，发展中国家经济发展的国际环境恶化了。由于加拿大、英国、美国的经济持续出现衰退，欧洲大
陆和日本的经济增长速度放慢，七大工业国家（七国集团）的国内生产总值的增长明显减缓——由1990年的增长2.8%降为1991年的增长 1.9%。在数个重要方面，这一增长的减缓与七十年代和八十年代所出现的减速不同。需求
疲软并不是反通货膨胀的后果，更多的则是由于失去了从1983年就开始的长期扩展时期所形成的动力。此外，许
多工业化国家经济发展减速的一个共同的基本因素，是周期性的投资下降。
4. Although the weakness in demand in the United States led to a sharp decline in short-term dollar interest rates—a positive development for many developing countries—it also contributed to a drop of over 6 per cent in non-oil commodity prices and to a slackening, to 3 per cent, in the growth of world trade. The trends were compounded by worning economic conditions in the Soviet Union and its successor states, where a growing shortage of foreign exchange led to a compression of imports from Eastern Europe and an acceleration of certain commodity exports (aluminum, gold
and lead, for instance) to earn hard currencies.
虽然美国的需求疲软导致了美元的短期利率降低——对许多发展中国家来说是个好消息——但它也使非石
油商品的价格降低了6%以上，使世界贸易的增长率降低为3%。苏联及其后所建立的各共和国的经济形势正在恶化，
它们的外汇日益短缺，使其减少了从东欧的进口，也使其加速出口某些初级产品（如铝、金和铅等）以赚取硬通货。这些情况使上述趋势更加复杂化了。
5. Against this deteriorating global background, the improvement in economic performance in a few
developing regions in 1991—which carried over in 1992—was especially noteworthy. This improvement is attributable, in part, to the implementation by many governments of measures to stabilize their economies and restructure incentives to encourage private initiative and international trade. Policy reforms in Latin America helped to moderate inflation and domestic
demand; East Asian economics, supported by growth in export volume in the range of 10 per cent and by robust domestic
demand, continued to grow rapidly. Sub-Saharan Africa raid its real GDP growth rate from 1.3 per cent in 1990 to 2.4 per
cent in 1991.
在这种恶化的全环背景下，1991年——一直持续到1992年——少数发展中地区在经济效益方面的提高尤其引
人瞩目。这一进步部分可归因于，许多政府采取了稳定其经济及调整政策以鼓励私人积极性和国际贸易的措施。拉
丁美洲的政策调整有助于缓解通货膨胀和国内需求；东亚经济在出口量增长10%和强有力的国内需求
的推动下，继
续迅速增长。撒哈拉以南非洲使其国内生产总值的实际增长北由1990年的 1.3%升至1991年的 2.4%。
6. Also noteworthy was the implementation by the Paris Club of a new menu of enhanced concessions in debt reschedulings for the verely indebted, low-income countries. The menu was introduced in agreements with Benin and Nicaragua, and was subquently applied in agreements with Bolivia and Tanzania. Nonconcessional but special extended rescheduling terms were also accorded to ten verely indebted middle-income countries.
同样引人瞩目的是，巴黎俱乐部对负债严重的低收入国家在重新安排债务的偿还计划方面，执行了一系列新
的再度让步政策。这些政策最初是在与贝宁和尼加拉瓜的协议中被采用的，后来也被应用于与玻利维亚和坦桑尼亚
的协议中。对10个负债严重的中等收入国家还执行了非让步性的、但属特殊扩大的重新安排债务偿还计划条款
7. In the commodity market, prices of all major categories declined in 1991. The index of non-oil primary commodity prices in nominal dollar terms decline for the third concutive year, and the index in real terms hit an all-time
low. Growth in the volume of world trade in constant dollar terms declined from 5 per cent in 1990 to 3 per cent in 1991,
mainly the result of the slowdown in industrial countries’ import demand. There were no breakthroughs in the Uruguay Round of GA TT negotiations on key elements, and the outcome remains in doubt.
在商品市场上，所有主要商品的价格在1991年均下降了。非石油初级产品的名义价指数已是第三年连续下
降，其实际价格的指数已降到了最低点。以不变价格计算，世界贸易的增长率由1990年的5%降到1991年的3%，
这主要是由工业化国家的进口需求的增长减缓所致。关贸总协定乌拉圭回合谈判在关键问题上没有取得任何突破，
其结果依然难以预料。
8. In matters relating to the environment, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held
in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, produced an “Earth Charter,” or declaration of basic principles for the conduct of and peoples with respect to environment and development; agreements on specific legal measures, including conventions
on climate change and biodiversity, and principles for a framework agreement on forests; and an agenda for action
ternational community for the period beyond (“Agenda 21”), establishing the environmental work program agreed by the in
1992 and into the twenty-first century.
在有关环境的问题上，1992年6月在里约热内卢召开的联合国环境与发展会议，产生了一个“地球宪章”，
换言之，宣布了各国和各个民族在环境与发展方面的行为准则，并就具体的法律措施达成了一些协议，包括气候变
化和生物多样化协定和森林框架协议准则；此外还制订了一个行动日程表（21世纪日程表），确定了1992年以后
直至二十一世纪的环境工作计划，该计划已为国际社会所认可。
Major Industrial Countries
9. Growth in the G-7 countries decelerated from 2.8 per cent in 1990 to 1.9 per cent in 1991 (e Table 1). The broad
糯米粉的做法大全点心trend was the outcome of largely unexpected tbacks to recovery in the United States and the United Kingdom and the
apparent ont of a slower period of economic growth in Japan and Germany. A cyclical slowdown of investment was apparently a major component of the slowdown: Investment decelerated or fell during 1991 in all the G-7 countries. In Japan, the cyclical slowing of investment was probably the dominant factor in weaker growth, but a slump in construction
of rental housing and the fading of a tax-cut-induced boom in auto sales also contributed. In Germany, the role of investment was dominant, as well. Unification further boosted investment, which then appeared to diminish, as expectations
of profitability were dampened by higher wages and high short-term nominal and real interest rates. Upward pressures on
wages and interest rates generally dampened economic activity in Germany during 1991. The special factor there was the
pressure on interest rates that a ro from the financing of unification and from anti-inflationary monetary policy. Inflation
as measured by the GDP deflator slackened in most of the G-7 countries. It continued to decelerate in North America and
edged down in Japan. The record in Europe was mixed, however, inflation ead somewhat in Italy and in the smaller economies such as Spain and Portugal, but accelerated by about one half of a percentage point in the United Kingdom (the
result of statistical anomalies) and by more than a point in Germany.
七国集团的经济增长率由1990年的 2.8%降为1991年的1.9%（见Table 1）。造成这一大趋势的原因是，美
国和英国的经济复苏出现了意想不到的退步，而且日本和德国已明显开始进入经济较缓慢增长的时期。周期性的投资下降明显是经济增长减慢的主要表现：七国集团的所有成员1991年的投资或增长减慢、或降低。在日本，周期
性的投资增长减速很可能是经济增长缓慢的主要因素，而出租房屋建设规模的大大缩小和由减税引发的汽车销售繁
荣的逐渐消失也是其因素。在德国，投资的作用也是主要的。统一进一步促进了投资，但投资随之似乎又下降了，
因为较高的工资和高的短期名义利率和实际利率使人们对利益率的企望降低了。1991年，工资和利率方面的压力
总的来说限制了德国的经济作为。那儿的特殊因素是为统一筹资和反通货膨胀倾向政策所产生的对利率的压力。以消除国内生产总值通货膨胀因素指数来衡量，通货膨胀在大多数七国集团国家缓解了。
通货膨胀在北美继续减速，
祖国我亲爱的祖国在日本也缓缓减速。然而，欧洲的通货膨胀记录却是复杂的；意大利和诸如西班牙、葡萄牙等经济稍弱国家的通货
膨胀有所缓解，但英国的通货膨胀加速了约半个百分点（统计差异之结果），德国的通货膨胀加速了一个多百分点。
10. The slowdown of the industrial countries in 1991 partly originated in structural problems inherited from the
1980s. Slower growth in Europe in 1991 revealed that unemployment, for instance, was still a structurally problematic area. The unemployment rate in the four largest European economies was 7.8 per cent in 1990, near the peak of the business cycle, and ro to 8.3 per cent in 1991. Financial stress brought on by excessive debt in the houhold and corporate ctors was an example of another kind of structural problem, in particular for the economies of Japan and the United States. Financial institutions in the two countries adopted more conrvative lending policies, curtailing financing of higher-risk projects such as commercial construction and highly leveraged corporate transactions. A number of weaker institutions were also consolidated through bankruptcy, merger an
d reorganization. The developments played some part in the general tightening of credit during 1991, which may have helped to slow the pace of investment in the United States and Japan.
Weak growth of credit and a fall in some ast prices probably slowed consumption, as well.
1991年工业化国家的经济发展放慢，部分地是由于八十年代遗留下来的由于社会体系和管理制度不完善而
引起的问题。比如，1991年欧洲经济较慢的增长显示，失业依然属于这样一个问题。欧洲四个经济最强的国家1990年的失业率是7.8%，已接近商业周期的项峰，而1991年又增长到8.3%。家计部门和社团部门过多的债务所引起的
金融压力，是由于社会体系和管理制度不完善而引起的问题的又一个例子，对日本和美国的经济来说尤其如此。这
两个国家的金融机构采取了较为保守的借贷政策，削减了对诸如商业建设和公司用大量借来的钱进行的交易等高风
险项目的资助。一些力量较弱的金融机构也通过破产、兼并和重组进行了合并。这些变化在1991年总的紧缩银根中起了一些作用，这也许减缓了日本和美国的投资步伐。信贷的微弱增长和一些资产价格
的下降很可能也减缓了消
费速度。
11. A notable development in 1991 was a narrowing of current-account imbalances of most major industrial countries (e Table 2): The U.S. current-account deficit moved to near balance (only 0.2 per cent of gross domestic product). The trade component of the deficit narrowed as lower inflation and earlier dollar depreciation improved competitiveness, while the transfers component moved into substantial surplus becau of war-related payments. Moreover, there was a remarkable swing in the German current account—from a surplus equivalent to 3.2 per cent of GDP in 1990 to
a deficit of 1.3 per cent. A continuation of the surge of imports that followed unification, as well as the earlier appreciation
of the deutsche mark, contributed to the swing. The Japane surplus on current account ro from 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 1990 to 2.1 per cent in 1991.
1991年值得注意的一个变化是，大多主要工业化国家的经常项目不平衡的幅度缩小了（见Table 2）：美国的经常项目赤字变得接近平衡（只占国内生产总值的0.2%）。贸易在赤字中所起的作用由于较低的通货膨胀和较早
的美元贬值促进了竞争而降低了，而资本转移部分由于战争费用的支付而变为大量盈余。此外，德国的经常项目有
一个显著的改变——由1990年的相当于国内生产总值的 3.2%的盈余变为相当于国内生产总值 1.3%的赤字。导致这一改变的因素不仅有德国马克的较早的升值，而且有紧随统一之后的持续的进口浪潮。日本的经常项目盈余由1990年的相当于其国内生产总值的 1.2%增为1991年的 2.1%。
12. Several important developments in monetary conditions also took place in 1991. Reflecting more accommodative monetary policy, nominal short-term interest rates fell in the United States and Japan (e Figure 1). In contrast, the increa in German nominal short-term interest rates to postwar highs narrowed the potential of some European Monetary System partners to reduce their rates. The German short-term real interest rate also ro relative to real interest rates in the United States and Japan (e Figure 2). The slope of the Japane yield curve became less negative and curve more positive as short-term interest rates fell more quickly than long-term rates in countries the United States’
declined by 2 per cent.
Several important developments in monetary conditions also took place in 1991. Reflecting more acc
ommodative monetary policy, nominal short-term interest rates fell in the United States and Japan （e Figure 1）. In contrast, the increa in German nominal short-term interest rates to postwar highs narrowed the potential of some European Monetary System partners to reduce their rates. The German short term real interest rate also ro relative to real interest rates in the United States and Japan （e Figure 2）. The slope of the Japane yield curve became less negative and the United States' curve more positive as short-term interest rates fell more quickly than long-term rates in both countries. In Germany, the
大羚羊slope of the yield curve turned positive.李立三简历
关于幸福的文案1991年货币状况也发生了一些重要变化。美国和日本的名义短期利率都下降了（见图表1），这体现了较为适当的货币政策。相反，德国的名义短期利率创战后新高，这约束了一些欧洲货币体系参加国降低本国利率的潜力。
德国的短期实际利率相对而言于美国和日本的短期实际利率来说也上升了（见图表2）。由于日美两国的短期利率
比其长期利率下降得要快，日本和美国的收益率曲线都在改善，德国的收益曲线也在朝着好的方向变化。
13. Developing Countries
发展中国家
Output for the developing countries advanced by 1.9 percent during 1991-comparable to the weak performance they registered in 1990(e Table 3). ①In terms of per capita income, real output in developing countries apparently ead somewhat, by - 0.1 percent. A number of factors-some broad-bad, others more specific-contributed to the weakness of performance:
·Becau slowdown in industrial-country growth dampened demand for exports of both primary commodities
and manufactures from developing countries, the volume of merchandi exports of developing countries declined by 2 percent.
·The influence of the Gulf crisis, including the spike in oil prices and dislocations in the Middle East, was widespread; the effects of the crisis on Iraq and Yugoslavia(the two countries alone account for some 4 percent of developing countries'aggregate GDP) resulted in steep declines in output.
·Structural transformation and the collap of trade with the Soviet Union and its successor states co
mbined to induce a deep recession in most of Central and Eastern Europe, while the sharp compression of imports by the Soviet Union adverly affected its other trading partners(such as India).
·Weakness of policy implementation affected economic performance in a number of countries.
Becau of date limitations, states of the former Soviet Union are not included.
1991年发展中国家的产量增加了 1.9%，这与其1990年微弱的增长情况相似(见Table 3).以至于人均收入，发展中国家以不变价格计算的产值明显有所下降，下降了0.1%。导致这一微弱增长有许多因素——其中一些因素包
含广泛，另一些则比较具体：
1.由于工业化国家经济增长的减慢降低了对发展中国家的初级产品和制造品的进口需求，发展中国家
的商品出口量降低了2%。
2.海湾危机的影响——包括油价猛跌和中东的混乱——波及很广；危机使伊拉克和南斯拉夫共和国（仅这两国的国内生产总值就约占发展中国家国内生产总值的4%）的产量急剧下降。
3.大多数东欧、中欧国家的体制改革和与前苏联及其后出现的各共和国的贸易额的骤降使其经济出现
了大萧条；而前苏联进口量的急剧下降又影响了其贸易伙伴（如印度）。
4.许多国家的政策执行不力影响了其经济作为。
14. Aggregate statistics for 1991 were dominated by the sharp decline in output in Central and Eastern Europe and
by the verely adver effects of the Gulf crisis on the economies of Middle Eastern countries. Estimates of GDP by major geographic region reveal that growth of output accelerated in Latin America and in sub-Saharan Africa, while a pick-up in China helped sustain Asian activity. Despite a sharp slowdown in India, where GDP growth fell from 5.5 per cent in 1990 to
GDP— 3.5 per cent in 1991—continued to 2.5 per cent, the population-weighted growth rate of developing countries’
exceed the ordinary measure.
1991年的整个统计资料所显示的主要经济动向就是，东欧、中欧国家的产量急剧下降，海湾危机对中东国
家的经济产生了巨大的负面影响。对主要大国的估计显示，拉美和撒哈拉以南非洲的产量加速增长，中国经济的恢
复有助于维持亚洲经济的活力。印度的经济增长速度骤减，其国内生产总值由1990年的增长 5.5%降为1991年的
增长2.5%，尽管如此，发展中国家国内生产总值的人口加权增长率——1991年为3.5%——继续超过以一般计算方
法算出的数据。
15. Despite the slowdown in the industrial countries—particularly in the United States—improvements in economic performance in Latin America were widespread. The region’s GDP ro by 3.0 per cent in 1991, thus rev the slide in annual per capita income that had taken place over the past decade. Growth rates were in excess of 4 per cent in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico and reached a high of 9.1 per cent in V enezuela. Policy reforms covering fiscal adjustment,
trade and investment liberalization, the financial ctor, and public-enterpri restructuring and privatization, supported by
debt restructuring, have helped to moderate inflation in the region and strengthen domestic demand. Chile has now been
growing at an average annual rate of 4.5 percentage points for the past six years, and since 1989 Mexico has been enjoying
a broad-bad expansion at rates of 3 per cent to 4 per cent a year. Recent major policy steps undertaken in Argentina have
brought a recovery in confidence and growth, and a reflow of capital to a number of countries in the form of foreign direct
investment and portfolio investment suggests an incread level of market confidence in the progress achieved to date.
尽管工业化国家——尤其是美国——的经济增长减速，拉美国家的经济状况却普遍有所改善。1991年该地
区的国内生产总值增长了 3.0%，因而扭转了八十年代就出现的年人均收入的下滑局面。阿根廷、智利和墨西哥的
增长率超过了4%，委瑞内拉的增长率高达9.1%。在债务重组的支持下，在财政调整、贸易与投资自由化、金融部
门、公营企业调整和私有化等方面进行的政策改革，已经促使该地区缓和了通货膨胀压力，强化了国内需求。在
过去的6年中，智利的经济持续增长，平均年增长率为 4.5%个百分点；1989年以来，墨西哥的经济每年也以3%行楷
到4%的增长率在增长，此增长有着广泛的基础。阿根廷最近采取的政策措施恢复了其信心，也使其经济重新开始
增长；资本以外国直接投资和证券投资的形式流回许多国家，这显示了投资者对迄今为止经济上取得了进步的国家
的市场的信心已经增加。
16. Grow th in output in East Asia, supported by continued vibrant performance of the region’s
a firming of domestic demand, particularly in China, accelerated to about 6.8 per cent in 1991. The sharp acceleration of
GDP growth in China, from 4.5 per cent to over 6 per cent, was supported by improvements in industrial output, higher
levels of consumer spending, and significant gains in the export of manufactures. Despite the slowdown in industrial-country markets, export volumes for the group of East Asian countries advanced at double-digit rates, implying
gains in market share. A moderate slackening in GDP growth from the rapid 9 per cent-to-10 per cent gains of 1990 occurred in the dynamic economies of the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, in part reflecting a catch-up of imports. The major risk facing this highly trade-oriented region is the potential for sluggishness or disruption in world-trade
traditional export markets has underlin ed the importance of market
flows. Economic weakness in some of the region’s
diversification, including a further strengthening of ties within the region. Increasingly buoyant intra-regional trade in East
velopment that could
-oriented” regional integration, a de
Asia may be viewed as evidence of an ongoing process of “market
partially offt lackluster progress in the area of multilateral trade agreements.
东亚产量，尤其是中国产量的增长不仅得到其国内需求强化的支持，而且也得到该地区持续活跃的出口的支
持，增长率1991年提高到了 6.8%。中国国内生产总值由年增长 4.5%明显加快到年增长6%以上，原因是，其工业
产值增加，消费支出保持在较高水平，制造品出口获取了可观的利润。尽管工业化国家的市场扩大减缓，东欧国家
鱼翅最简单的做法
的出口量仍以两位数的增长率增加，这意味着其所占出口市场的份额增加。韩国、马来西亚、泰国这些经济有活力
的国家1990年国内生产总值的增长率为9%到10%，1991年在这一迅速增长的基础上出现了有限的下降，这部分
地体现了它们争相进口这一事实。这一严重依赖贸易的地区所面临的主要危险是，其经济可能在世界贸易的潮流中
出现萧条或混乱。该地区一些传统的出口市场在经济上存在着一些弱点，这使市场多样化——包括进一步加强该地
区内的相互关系——显得更加重要。东亚越来越活跃的地区内贸易可视为以“市场导向”的地区一体化正在进行的
证据，这一进程能部分地弥补在多边贸易达成协议方面进展缓慢的不足。
赵晔17. The GDP growth rate in 1991 of the South Asia region was 2.8 per cent, down from 5.6 per cent in 1990. The
reining in of its budget deficit and the short-term effects of the implementation of
decline was partly caud by India’s
strong emergency stabilization measures, which, coupled with the collap of the Soviet market and recession in the U.S.,
contributed to a sharp slowdown in industrial activity and exports. The emergency measures included a vere compression
of imports, tight credit policies and exchange-rate devaluation.
