俄乌冲突对经济的负面影响
夕阳晚霞诗句俄乌冲突这场黑天鹅事件给全球金融市场带来了巨大冲击。一般而言，战争等突发事件会激起金融市场投资者的风险厌恶情绪，导致避险资产价格上涨，风险资产价格下跌。俄罗斯和乌克兰都是重要的全球大宗商品出口国，俄乌冲突将影响世界主要大宗商品供应，导致价格飙升。
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黄小米的功效与作用从1月31日到3月4日，伦敦黄金市场协会黄金价格，美元指数升值；10年期美国国债收益率下降。1月31日至3月4日，美国道琼斯工业平均指数和美国纳斯达克综合指数下跌。1月1日至3月4日，布伦特原油期货价格上涨。同期，美国商品研究局期货价格指数、金属指数、食品指数、油脂指数，标准普尔商品指数也有所上涨。与美国股市相比，俄罗斯股市的跌幅要大得多。2月22日至25日，俄罗斯以美元计价的俄罗斯交易系统指数下跌23.6%，莫斯科银行间货币交易所俄罗斯指数下跌20%。此外卢布贬值。从1月31日到3月4日，卢布对美元和欧元的汇率分别贬值了36%和34.5%。
当然，全球大宗商品价格上涨是否持续取决于冲突的演变。冲突延长到中期将削弱信心，抑制国际贸易和投资，加剧全球经济放缓。大宗商品价格持续飙升将加大大宗商品主
要进口国的进口通胀压力，迫使全球经济再次面临严重的滞胀，同时还将继续推高美国通胀，迫使美联储加快货币紧缩。美联储收紧货币政策的溢出效应将加速全球经济增长的下滑和全球金融市场的动荡。
赏心悦目的意思是
俄乌冲突加剧也将给中国经济带来新的外部压力。一方面，中国是世界上最大的大宗商品进口国。新一轮大宗商品价格上涨将导致贸易条件恶化，进口成本上升，贸易顺差缩小。另一方面，如果新一轮通胀从产业链的上游传导到中下游，可能会推动消费者价格指数上升过快，减少中国人民银行放松货币政策的空间。中国股市也面临着大规模投资外流的压力。
中国政府可以积极寻找大宗商品替代供应商，让市场在决定人民币汇率方面发挥更大作用，通过大型国内投资机构维持资本市场稳定，积极推动国内能源革命和绿色转型，以减少中国经济对传统能源进口的依赖，以应对俄乌冲突带来的负面影响。
英文原文如下：
Force of circumstance
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a black swan event
for most investors. So far, it has brought huge shocks to the global financial market. Generally speaking, the outbreak of unexpected events such as wars usually boosts risk aversion among investors in financial markets, leading to higher prices of safe-haven asts (such as gold, dollar and US Treasuries) and lower prices of risky asts (such as stocks and bulk commodities). However, co
nsidering that both Russia and Ukraine are important global commodity exporters (such as Russia's energy and Ukraine's agricultural products), the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will significantly impact the supply of key commodities in the world, leading to soaring prices of bulk commodities.
The London Bullion Market Association Gold Price was up from $1,795 per ounce to $1,945 from Jan 31 to March 4, approaching the $2,000 per ounce mark, an increa of 8.4 percent. During the same period, the dollar index ro from 96.54 to 98.65, an appreciation of 2.2 percent; the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped slightly from 1.79 percent to 1.74 percent. However, it is worth noting that driven by expectations of the Fed raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond ro to 2.05 percent on Feb 15. If compared with this high point,
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the indicator is down 31 ba points as of March 4.
The US Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 35131.86 to 33614.8 from Jan 31 to March 4, down 4.3 percent; the US Nasdaq Composite Index fell from 14239.88 to 13313.44, down 6.5 percent. Compared with the US stock market, the drop in the Russian stock market was much sharper. From Feb 22 to 25, Russia's dollar-denominated Russian Trading System index fell 23.6 percent, and the r
起拼音
文莱元uble-denominated Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange Russia index also fell 20 percent. In addition, the drop in the Russian stock index was also accompanied by a depreciation of the ruble. From Jan 31 to March 4, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro depreciated by 36 percent and 34.5 percent respectively.
The price of Brent crude oil futures ro from $89.26 per barrel to $118.11 from Jan 1 to March 4, an increa of 32.3 percent. Some institutions have predicted the crude oil price rising to $200 per barrel within this year. During the same period, the US Commodity Rearch Bureau Futures Price Index, metals index, food index, lipids and oils index ro 6.9 percent, 6.4 percent, 12.7 percent and 9.6 percent respectively. In the first week of March, global commodity
prices ro in an even more astonishing manner. The S&P commodity index is up 37 percent for the year.
As mentioned earlier, the biggest shock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global financial market is that it may once again lead to a new round of global commodity price hikes. Of cour, whether the price hikes are sustained depends on the evolution of the conflict. If the conflict ends in the short term, the ri in commodity prices may be a short-term disturbance. Once the conflict evolves into a medium-term confrontation, the ri in bulk commodity prices may become a new trending event.
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The scenario that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prolonged to the medium term would exacerbate the global economic slowdown, becau intensified global geopolitical conflicts weaken the confidence of micro players and dampen international trade and investment. The growth rates of consumption, investment and imports and exports may all decline accordingly. Second, the continuous spike in bulk commodity prices will heighten the pressure on imported inflation for major importers of commodities, forcing the global economy to face vere stagflation again. Third, rising commodity prices will continue to drive US inflation higher,
