毕业生自我鉴定表
使用大宗商品分析方法来预测金价走势
高盛研究发出去的红包怎么撤回
The monetary demand for gold has played a significant part in the large swings in gold prices of the past decade, with the lling of gold from government central bank rerves in the late 1990s depressing gold prices and the buying of gold for private investment—including the new gold exchange traded funds (gold-ETFs)—nding gold prices through $1,000/toz twice during the current financial crisis (Exhibit 1). Becau the monetary demand for gold has had such a significant influence on gold prices over the past decade, it is tempting to view gold prices as driven simply by the vagaries of government policy and the investor’s view of financial distress; however, when viewed within the larger historical context, the past decade’s ri in gold prices falls within a longer cycle in gold prices, driven more by the economics of gold supply. This report introduces a framework for understanding the influence of both monetary demand and the economics of gold supply on the price of gold. Bad on this framework, we prent a new approach for forecasting the
price of gold bad on the monetary demand for gold (specifically, the buying by gold-ETFs and the lling by central banks) and on the crucial role of the real interest rate in determining the opportunity cost of mining.
过去十年中，对黄金的货币需求在金价浮动中起了十分重要的作用：政府央行在90年代后期抛售黄金储备引起了金价下跌，用于私人投资的黄金购买——包括新的黄金ETF——让金价在当前的金融危机中两次突破1000/toz（表1）。由于对黄金的货币需求在过去十年中对金价的影响如此之大，因此人们试图将金价看成纯粹是受无常的政府政策以及投资者对金融危机的看法的驱动；但是，如果从更大的历史背景来看，过去十年金价的上涨符合金价的长期规律，更多是受黄金供应的经济考虑。该报告介绍的框架是要更好地了解货币供给以及黄金供应对金价的影响。基于这个框架，我们提出了一种预测金价的新方法，即依据对黄金的货币需求（尤其是黄金ETF的买进与央行的卖出）和实际利率在决定采矿的机会成本中的重要作用进行预测。
表1：金价在过去十年上涨了十倍，去年更是有大幅涨跌
小白撑
This “gold as a commodity” framework suggests that gold prices have strong support at and above current price levels should the current low real interest rate environment persist. Specifically, assuming real interest rates stay near current levels and the buying from gold-ETFs slows to last year’s pace, we would expect to e gold prices stay near $930/toz over the next six months, rising to $962/toz on a 12-month horizon. However, sh
ould real interest rates move lower or gold-ETF buying continue at its current torrid pace, the upside risk to gold prices would likely be significant.
“大宗商品分析法来预测黄金价格走势”的框架表明，如果当前低实际利率环境一直持续的话，黄金价格对当前和超过当前的价格水平具有有力支撑。具体地，如果实际利率一直接近当前水平，并且来自黄金ETF的购买降至去年的速度，那么我们可以预期黄金价格在未来六个月将会接近$930/toz，在未来12个月里会涨至$962/toz。然而，如果实际利率走低或者黄金ETF购买依然保持现在的高速度，则金价将面临较大的上涨风险。订婚主持词开场白
This report is the first in our new Frameworks ries. This ries of occasional reports is intended to explore in greater detail the frameworks necessary for developing views and forecasts for commodity market fundamentals and prices. In this first Frameworks report, we outline an approach to forecasting gold prices and fundamentals from the framework of “gold as a commodity”—bad on the economic and financial determinants of gold supply, demand, and inventories. Historically, we have viewed gold more as a currency than a commodity (e our February 4, 2009 report “Gold: The currency of last resort”), v
"挣钱项目"
aluing gold (in US dollars) in relation to the US dollar price (or exchange rate) of a basket of currencies. We view the approach in this report as complementing, not replacing, the currency approach, with each framework providing a valuable perspective on gold pricing.
开学典礼
此为我们新框架系列的首份报告。这一系列的临时报告是要更加详细地探究一些对发展中的观点和对商品市场基本面及价格进行预测所必需的一切框架。在这份框架报告中，我们大致描述了从“黄金作为商品”的框架对金价和基本面进行预测的方法——以黄金供应、需求、库存的经济和金融决定因素为基础。从历史上看来，我们更多地是将黄金看作一种货币而不是商品（见我们2009年2月4日的报告“黄金：最后的货币”），将黄金价格（以美元）和一揽子货币对美元的价格（或汇率）联系起来。我们将这个报告里的方法视为是对货币方法的补充而不是取代，每一种框架对黄金定价提供一种有价值的视角。
In terms of the approach to gold pricing, the frameworks can be described as follows:
至于黄金定价方法，这些框架如下所述：
• Currency framework: Gold priced in relation to the price of potential substitutes for u as a store of value and medium of exchange.
Key price drivers: Exchange rates, financial risk as measured by credit default swap rates on high-risk sovereigns and financials.
• Commodity framework: Gold priced in relation to the marginal cost of supply and to the marginal willingness of consumers to pay.
Key price drivers: Real interest rates, the overall price level as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), and movements in monetary demand for gold.
●货币框架：黄金价格与可以作为价值储备和交换媒介的潜在替代品的价格相关。
决定价格的主要因素：汇率，以CDS衡量的高风险主权债务风险和金融风险
●商品框架：黄金定价和供给的边际成本以及消费者的边际支付意愿相关。
决定价格的主要因素：实际利率，以cpi计算的总价格水平，以及对黄金的货币需求动向。
The “gold as a commodity” framework explains three key “stylized facts” of gold prices in terms of the influence of real interest rate s, inflation, and monetary demand for gold on the supply and demand for gold.
“将黄金作为商品”的框架解释了实际利率、通胀以及对黄金的货币需求对黄金的供应和需求的影响中黄金价格三个关键的‘程式化事实’：
索然什么Three stylized facts of gold prices:
黄金价格的三个程式化事实：
• Long-term stability of purchasing power: The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has been stable over extremely long periods of time (Exhibit 2). More specifically, over the past 100 years, the real price of gold (in 2008 dollars) has averaged roughly $420/ toz, with an ounce of gold having the same purchasing power in 2005 as it did in 1900.
