我们喜欢本身就很强大的企业——巴菲特、芒格探讨行业投资心得
Do you invest bad on trends or ctors?
您是根据潮流趋势进行投资，还是根据行业来投资？如何腌制白萝卜
We don’t play big trends like demographic trends. They just don’t mean that much. There’s too much money to be made year to year than worry about trends that take ten years to play out. I can’t think of one investment we’ve ever made bad on a macro or demographic trend.
我们不会根据趋势进行投资，比如像人口趋势这样的，这些潮流趋势本身并没有太多意义。我们每年都需要对大量的资金进行投资，而为那些潜伏期长达数几年的潮流趋势担心是不值得的。我想不出来我们曾经有哪次是根据宏观、或者微观趋势进行投资的。
马云属什么生肖[CM: Not only that, but we’ve misd the biggest commodity boom in history – and we’ll continue to miss things like this!]
[查理芒格：不仅如此，我们的的确确还错过了历史上最大的商品大繁荣时期—将来我们还会继续跟这样的趋势无缘]
What do you think about the utility industry?
两性网站您怎么看待公用事业行业?
I have thought about that a lot becau you can put big money in it. I have even thought of buying the entire business. But I don't quite understand the game in terms of how it is going to develop with deregulation. I can e how it destroys a lot of value through the high cost producer once they are not protected by a monopoly territory.
不舍的英文
我对这个领域思考过很多，毕竟这是一个可以投很多钱的行业。我甚至想过要把整个行业都收入囊中。但是我对这个行业究竟要怎么玩还是不太清楚，不了解在管制放松的情况下这个行业会如何发展。我觉得，一旦备有了垄断领域的保护，该行业公司的价值很容易被高成本生产商摧毁。
I don't for sure e who benefits and how much. Obviously the guy with very low cost po
wer or some guy has hydro-power at two cents a KwH has a huge advantage. But how much of that he gets to keep or how extensively he can nd that outside his natural territory, I haven't been able to figure that out so I really don’t know what the Industry will look like in ten years. But it is something I think about and if I ever develop any insights that call for action, I will act on them. Becau I think I can understand the attractiveness of the product. All the aspects of certainty of urs need and the fact it is a bargain and all of that. I understand. I don't understand who is going to make the money in ten years. And that keeps me away.
冬蟹
我不确定这个行业里谁能获益，或是能获益多少。很显然的是，有低成本能源的公司或者是成本低到2美分一度电的混合动力源的公司有巨大的优势。但是我不清楚公司能把这个优势保存多久的，以及它们能否把这个优势延展到自己的自然资源之外，所以我无法看清在10年之后这类公司能发展成什么样子。但是我会一直关注这个行业，一旦有想法就会去付出行动。因为我觉得我能够理解这类行业的吸引点。确定的用户需求，相对便宜的股价，这些都是能够理解吸引点。但是我无法理解的是这个行业里的哪个企业能够在未来十年里赚钱。这个原因让我退避三舍。
What do you think of utilities?
您怎么看待公共事业？
The production of electricity is a huge business and it's not inconceivable that we'd invest heavily here.
发电行业是庞大的产业，所以毫无疑问我们会在这个领域重仓投资。
可爱动漫男生头像The Public Utilities Holding Company Act [PUCA], written in 1935, has a lot of rules about what the parent company of a utility can do. It was t up to check abus that existed then, so it was appropriate at the time. But I don't think there's anything pro-social about limiting Berkshire Hathaway's ability to acquire utilities today. We might have done one or two acquisitions in past years but for PUCA.
1935年诞生的《公用事业控股公司法案》（PUCA）对公用事业的母公司的行为做出了大量规定。它的诞生是为了监控当时存在的违规行为，在当时看是合理的。但是我认为，时至今日，再限制伯克希尔哈撒韦收购公用事业公司跟社会道德准则是毫不相关的。由于PU
CA法案，我们在过去几年本来要完成的一两项收购案也并没有完成。
[Regarding the Californian Power Crisis] With deregulation, the incentives [for power producers] were changed such that instead of wanting abundant supplies, they wanted tight supplies, which would result in higher prices.
（关于加利福尼亚电力公司危机）随着管制放松，对发电公司的激励变化导致他们希望供应紧张，而不是充足的供应，这最终导致价格提高。
You can't take utilities with a cost of X, invite new producers in with a cost of 3X, and expect prices to go down.
你不能消灭掉那些成本花费只有X倍的公司，然后替换成成本花费有3X的供应商，然后期待价格会降低。
The old system strikes me as better for society.
这套旧体系说是为社会服务，确实是雷到我了。
[CM: 'The old system had the NIMBY [not in my back yard] problem. If you let unreasonable, lf-centered people make decisions, you'll get into trouble. We may be making the same mistake today with oil refineries.']
[查理芒格：旧的体质面临的是“事不关己高高挂起”的问题。如果让不遵从逻辑、从自我出发的人来做决定，我们肯定会遇到麻烦。炼油厂这个行业现在可能也面临着同样的问题。] 测字
In the domestic soft drink model, is it winner take all, or is there room for three competitors?
在国内的软饮板块里，是一家独大，还是能容纳三家竞争？
Sure, there's room for more than one. I think Coke's market share will grow pretty much year after year. We're talking tenths of a percent, but tenths of a percent are important.
毫无疑问，这个市场肯定还是能够多容纳一家公司的。我觉得可口可乐的市场份额每年都会有大幅度增长。虽然我们现在说的是十分之一，但是十分之一也很重要。潭面无风镜未磨的上一句是什么
The U.S. market is 10 billion cas, so one percent is 100 million cas. It's interesting how regional tastes can be: Dr. Pepper may have a far bigger market share in Texas than in Minnesota ... You can make money with a soft drink company that doesn't dominate the business. You can do a lot better with one that does dominate, but it's not winner take all. It's not like two newspapers in a town of 100,000 or 200,000. There are certain business that are winner takes all.
