百合花种植中国产品出口竞争力外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)
向天果的功效与作用China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?
三什么成语
There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat pod by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damag e its neighbors. We examine the dimensions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share loss are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly expod to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the
international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.
Introduction
Concern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East an d Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial ctor, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic u of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export loss.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related rvices. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention ems to have been on exports.
Offtting this threat are the promi of the giant Chine market (WTO accession is only one of veral initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not posss. It is also raisin g imports of manufactur
ed products. Its advanced neighbors are lling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a ba for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chine exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘gmentation’ are ud to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bas. China’s own enterpris are like ly to specialize with respect to regional counterparts and so rai intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps
worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for tho of its neighbors.
It is difficult to asss, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offt its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards pri
mary products or slow-growing gments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chine and regional enterpris, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in the factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directly than affiliates of the same MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.
人民币基金This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so asss where the threat appears most inten. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analys complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, th e region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.
Background on Chine export performance
Chine manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3%
for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports ro from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandi exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports ro from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (e below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.
This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large rerves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to c
heap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education ro from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of many neighbors. It is using its diver industrial ba to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to rai local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impo performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.
WTO accession may con strain China’s ability to u industrial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterpris outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterpris (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kenci, 2002).
Market share changes in major developed country markets
锅贴饺子>赵壁We analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and We
st Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chine exports as the together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itlf ($74.6 billion).
检讨500
The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:
Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea los market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan los only in the US. Hong Kong’s los market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore los only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japane market. Resource bad products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increas, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has a large gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lo shares; the latter two also lo in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and 人才工作会议
the Philippines lo out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer loss in market share, but Singapore es an increa in Japane market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.
Medium technology products: While the Chine pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer loss in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the cond largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reverd, with Singapore joining
