Europe's debt crisis
欧洲债务危机
Spot the patternhhp
看变化模式
Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
do2011年7月5日 18：55 R.A./华盛顿
HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern?
本图显示的是在过去3个月10年期希腊债券的收益率。变化模式看清楚了吧？minions
There's a spike, followed by a decline, followed by a higher spike, followed by a decline to a higher trough, and so on. European leaders keep taking steps to avert disaster, and each time markets are less assuaged.
奥斯汀与艾丽有个尖峰，接着是下跌，然后又是稍高一些的尖峰，接着跌入一个较高的波谷，如此反复。欧洲国家的领导人一直在采取措施避免灾难，而每一次市场都没有大的起色。
The latest spike corresponds to the stalemate over the IMF's willingness to continue making bail-out payments without a new, long-term rescue package in place (and the corresponding disagreement over how to rollover Greek debt, plus the drama surrounding the passage of Greece's new austerity plan). The IMF agreed to keep paying, French and German banks emed willing to sign on to a rollover plan, and Greece got its new austerity programme through parliament. But it wasn't long before trouble kicked up again.
最近的尖峰反映了这样一个困境：国际货币基金组织愿意继续救助，但又没有制定出一个长期的一揽子救助计划（同时也反映出如何缓解希腊债务各方存在分歧，以及希腊的新紧缩计划能否通过依然有变数）。国际货币基金组织同意继续提供支付，法国和德国的银行似乎愿意签署资金周转计划书，希腊国会通过了新的紧缩计划。但是，没过多久，麻烦又来了。
stayhungryMoody's and Standard and Poor's have both suggested that the agreed-upon rollover plan might well constitute a default. Since that's precily the outcome European leaders were hoping to avoid, this news has nt everyone scurrying to come up with a new and better deal. Meanwhile, Moody's has cut Portugal's debt rating to junk. Portugal may well need a new rescue package, which will surely include debate over the fate of creditors, which will mean more questions about bank finances and more brinksmanship. And the European economy continues to slow, even as the European Central Bank continues to tighten policy.
穆迪和标准普尔都暗示，商定好的周转计划很可能得不到执行。因为这种结果正是欧洲国家的领导人们想避免的，所以这条消息让每个人都急不可待地要制定出一个新的、更好的解决办法。与此同时，穆迪公司已经将葡萄牙的债务评级降至垃圾级。葡萄牙很可能需要一个新的一揽子救援计划，这必将包括对债权人命运的辩论，而辩论的内容将更多的是关于银行财政方面的问题和边缘政策。欧洲经济增长速度持续放缓，尽管欧洲央行继续收紧货币政策。
I don't know that there's any broad lesson here, other than: for all the steps already taken by European leaders, the euro zone hasn't really gotten any clor to solving the underlying issues of insolvency and institutional weakness.
reality是什么意思
除了以下教训，我不知道还有什么更大的了：虽然欧洲国家的领导人们已经采取了各种措施，但是，欧元区要解决当前国家破产危机和体制上不健全的根本问题，确确实实还有很长的路要走。
Global hou prices
全球房价
Rooms with a view
一览全球楼市
Asia’s frothiest housing markets are calming down. Is America’s bottoming?
亚洲泡沫最多的楼市不再蒸蒸日上。美国的楼市触底了吗？
Jul 7th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition
THE bubble that caud a global recession has been a long time deflating. The American housing market began to decline half a decade ago and hasn’t stopped yet. Prices dropped by 5.1% from the year before, according to the latest S&P/Ca-Shiller national index. Among markets tracked by The Economist, only Irish homes have fallen further since 2006. Robert Shiller, one of the fathers of the Ca-Shiller index, says more hard times lie ahead. Prices may slide another 10-25%, he reckons, as the economy wrings out the excess supply of the bubble years.
化眼妆步骤
引发全球经济衰退的泡沫一直在破灭，已经历时已久。5年前，美国的楼市就开始衰退了，目前还未停止衰退。根据最新的标普凯斯•席勒全国指数，与一年前相比，房价下跌了5.1%。在《经济学人》追踪的市场中，自2006年以来只有爱尔兰的房价跌得还要厉害。凯斯•席勒指数创始人之一的罗伯特•席勒表示，艰难时期还在后头。他估计，随着经济逐渐耗尽泡沫时期过剩的供应量，房价可能还要再下跌10%-25%。
By our calculations, however, America’s housing market has overshot the fair-value mark,
as measured by the long-run average ratio of hou prices to rents. Rents are rising: an increa in the cost of rental housing contributed to May’s robust American inflation data. With home ownership looking a better deal, prices should stabili. The Ca-Shiller index posted a month-on-month increa in April for the first time since July 2010. It was not alone in showing gains. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price ries ticked up in April for the first time since May 2010, and the CoreLogic index of home prices, a favourite of the Federal Rerve, notched price ris in both April and May. The pace of sales has been sluggish but an index of pending home sales posted a surprisingly large gain in May.
recipeo然而，据我们的统计，通过长期的房价和租金的平均比率来衡量，美国的楼市已经超过合理价值的标准。租金正在上涨：租房成本上升带来了5月份美国强劲的通胀数据。随着拥有住房看起来是更好的选择，房价应该会稳定下来。自2010年7月以来，4月凯斯•席勒指数首次出现了环比上扬。并非只有凯斯•席勒指数呈现了上行趋势。自2010年5月以来，联邦住房金融局的价格系列指数在4月份也出现了首次上升。此外，CoreLogic房价指数（美联储最喜欢参照的指数）在4、5月份都有所上升。尽管销售速度一直相当缓慢，但是住房销全国冻哭预警地图
售的预期指数在5月份大幅上升，令人吃惊。
The best news of all may be the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. Delinquencies have trended downward since late 2009. Consumer-debt payments relative to incomes are at a 17-year low and houhold credit scores are rising. Banks are still being stingy with credit but houholds are better positioned than they were to take advantage of cheaper homes.
或许最好的消息是信贷环境正在改善。自2009年底以来，拖欠债务的情况一直在减少。相对于收入而言的消费者债务支付创17年的低点，家庭的信用分数正在上升。各银行对信贷仍然非常严格，但是与以往相比，现在各家庭做好了更好利用较廉价住房的准备。
Cheapness is not a word to associate with Hong Kong, the most overpriced market in our analysis. Hou prices in the territory ro by 23.9% year on year in April. The boom may well be coming to an end, however. Like its counterpart on the mainland, Hong Kong’s government is trying to restrain property markets. A June increa in down-payment requirements is just the latest in a ries of measures to cool the housing ctor. Sales vpays
olumes have declined steadily for six months, and prices are likely to follow.
