Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball
用水晶球软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟
To run a simulation using Crystal Ball
1.Setup Spreadsheet
1．设定数据表
Build a spreadsheet that will calculate the performance measure (e.g., profit) in terms of the inputs （random or not）. For random inputs, just enter any number. Hwbpsm。K 通过建立数据表可以对输入数据（随机的，非随机）进行评估。随机数据的 输入，输入任意数即可。
2.Define Assumptions — i.e., random variables
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(typically the
Define which cells are random, and what distribution follow. 274B0W。R2被子英语．定义假设的前提—例如，随机变量
确定那些单元格的数据时随机的，这些数据应该服从什么样的分布
3.Define Forecast —i.e., output or performance measure
Define which cell（s） you are interested in forecasting performance measure, e.g., profit）. biNjnie 。
3．预测结果的确定—例如，数据输出或者性能的测定 确定哪些单元格的数据是你想预测的（典型的性能指标，例如，利润）
4.Choo Number of Trials
Select the number of trials. If
Sensitivity Analysis chart, choo Run 4. 选择试验的次数 5DJxkmF。
选择试验的次数。如果 要生成敏感度分析图表，选择优先运行下的“敏感度分析”
5.Run Simulation
Run the simulation. If you would like to change parameters and re-run the simulation, you should “ret ” the simulation (click on the “Ret
Simulation ” button on the toolbar or in the Run menu) first. ocpritP 。 运行模拟 运行模拟。如果要改变参数重新进行模拟，需要首先重置模拟(点击运行菜 单工具栏或者运行菜单下的“重置模拟”按钮)。 57XZlwi 。
6.View Results
The forecast window showing the results of the simulation appears automatically after (or during) the simulation. Many different results are available (frequency chart, cumulative
chart, statistics, percentiles,
nsitivity analysis, and trend chart). The results can be copied into the
worksheet. ZvWeHM。Q 查看结果
在模拟最后或者运行的过程中，预测窗口会自动显示模拟的结果。可以获得
不同的结果（频率图，累计图，统计图，百分比图，模拟分析图和趋势
图），结果可以复制到工作表中。 cXrw45J。
Crystal Ball Toolbar: （水晶球的工具栏）
招聘人员要求有哪些
Define Run ecast Pr
Chart 8MSNLA。6
rences Simulation Simulation
奥巴马夫妇
血浓于水英文
确定假设）确定预测结果 优先运行 开始模拟 模拟重置 预测窗口 趋势
Walton Bookstore Simulation with Crystal Ball
水晶球在 Walton 书店模拟中的应用
Recall the Walton Bookstore example: It is August, and they must decide how many of ne
xt year 's nature calendars to order. Each calendar costs the bookstore $7.50 and is sold for $10. After
February, all unsold calendars are returned to the publisher for a refund of $2.50 per calendar. Suppo Walton predicts demand will be somewhere between 100 and 300 （discrete uniform）. 47CPhU6。
回想 Walton 书店的例子。在八月份，书店需要确定订购的明年的日历的数 量。单个日历的进价是 7.5 美元，售价是 10 美元。二月份之后，所有未售 的日历将会以 2.5 美元的价格退还给出版商。假设 Walton 日历的销售量在
100~300 之间（离散型均匀分布） PWGPM。mq
Demandhow old Order Quantity Revenue Cost Refund | = d ~ Uniform[100, 300] = Q (decision variable) = $10 * Min( Q, d) = $7.50 * Q = $2.50 * Max( Q– d, 0) |
| |
Profit
= Revenue – Cost + Refund
需求量 = d ~ Uniform[100, 300]
订购量 = Q ( 随决定变化 ) 收入 = $10 * Min( Q, d)
成本 =$7.50 * Q 退款 = $2.50 * Max( Q–d, 0)
利润 = 收入- 成本+退款
Step #1 (Setup Spreadsheet)
第一步（制作电子表格）
| A | B | C | D | E | F |
1 | 英语qq昵称>小学 语文Simulation of Walton's Bookstore | | |
2 | | | | | | |
3 | | Data | | | | |
4 | | Unit Cost = | $7.50 | | | |
5 | | Unit Price = | $10.00 | | | |
6 | | Unit Ref und = | honey中文意思 $2.50 | | | |
7 | | | | | | |
8 | | Demand D is tribution (Uniform) | | | |
9 | | Minimum = | 100 | | | |
10 | | Maximum = | 300 | | | |
11 | | | | | | |
12 | | Decis ion Variable | | | |
13 | it是什么意思 | Order Quantity = | 200 | | | |
14 | | | | | | |
15 | | Simulation | | | | |
16 | | Demand | Revenue | Cost | Refund | Prof it |
17 | | 200 | $2,000.00 | $1,500.00 | $0.00 | $500.00 |
| | | | | | |
| B | C | D | E | F |
15 | Simulation | | | | |
16 | Dem and | Revenue | Cost | Refund | Profi t |
17 | 200 | =C5*MIN(C13,B17) | =C4*C13 | =C6*MA X(C13-B17,0) | =C17-D17+E17 |
| | | | | |
appreciate
