摘 要
近年来，内蒙古地区经济发展呈现出高增长的可喜局面，因此，内蒙古经济高增长的动力是本文考察的对象。本文构建了区分设备资本和建筑资本的内生增长模型，进而测算出设备资本的边际收益，利用设备资本的边际收益来考察设备资本的内生技术进步。文章在实证研究的基础上给出了内蒙古地区经济增长的政策建议。
本文首先提出了测度资本内生技术进步的三个命题：设备投资中的相对技术进步率等于建筑投资或产出价格相对设备投资价格的变动率；设备资本的边际收益与设备投资中的技术进步速度成正比；设备资本与建筑资本的边际收益差距和设备投资的相对价格成反比。在此基础上，文章对内蒙古地区1986-2007年间资本积累中的技术进步水平进行了实证分析，首先，通过将设备投资价格指数与建筑投资价格指数和GDP 缩减指数比较，来分析设备资本中的内生技术进步水平。接着，构建了一个区分建筑资本和设备资本的内生增长模型，利用状态空间模型进行了估计，得到了设备资本和建筑资本对经济增长贡献的动态值，进而得到了1986年以来设备资本的边际收益。文章利用hp滤波法对内蒙古地区的潜在经济增长率进行了测算。最后给出了内蒙古经济增长政策建议。研究结论表明：
第一，通过将设备投资价格指数与建筑投资价格指数和GDP缩减指数比较，发现1990—2007年内蒙古设备投资中年均技术进步率至少在2.5%—3.5%以上。
第二，通过内生增长模型分析，设备资本的边际收益已经出现下降的趋势，即设备资本内生的技术进步水平开始下降，但是近年来设备资本的边际收益仍然保持在1.32以上，远远高于世界平均水平，所以资本尤其是设备资本在过去几年是并且在未来几年也将是内蒙古地区经济增长的强劲动力。
第三，通过HP滤波法测算出内蒙古地区潜在经济增长率90年以来保持在10%以上，近几年更是在15%以上，但是2003年以来已经有下降的趋势。
由以上三点可以看出，资本是过去几年内蒙古经济高增长的强劲动力，在未来几年也将是经济高增长的强劲动力，但是近几年内生的技术进步开始下降，潜在经济增长率也开始下降，因此，不能一味的依靠高投资来支撑经济高增长，否则高增长是不可持续的。从长远来看，想要保持经济的高增长，加大研发投入，提高外生技术进步水平是必由之路。trampoline
关键词：经济增长；设备资本；状态空间模型；HP滤波
牛奶美容护肤小窍门Abstract
In recent years, in Inner Mongolia region economic development is showing high-growth situation. Therefore, the study core of this paper is dynamic force of high-growth in Inner Mongolia region. A endogenous growth model which includes equipment and building capital is established. According t
o this model, the marginal returns of equipment capital is estimated, and endogenous technological progress is calculated through the marginal returns of equipment capital.
This paper brings forward three propositions about measuring endogenous technological progress of capital: relative technological progress of equipment investment is equal to price rate of change of building investment or output relative to building investment; Marginal returns of equipment capital is directly proportional to technological progress of equipment investment; The gap between marginal returns of equipment and building capital is inverly proportional to relative price of equipment investment. On this basis, the article give a empirical analysis of technological advance in capital accumulation of the Inner Mongolia in 1986-2007. Trough comparing price index of equipment investment with price index of building investment and GDP deflator, endogenous technological progress of the equipment capital is analyzed. Then a endogenous growth model which includes equipment and building capital is established, and it is estimated by the state-space model.We obtain the dynamic value of equipment and building capital contribution to economic growth, and then obtain marginal benefit of equipment capital since 1986. The potential economic growth rate is estimated in Inner Mongolia through HP filtering. Finally, policy proposals of economic growth in Inner Mongolia are issued. The conclusions of our rearch are:
First, trough comparing price index of equipment investment with price index of building investment and GDP deflator, we know in 1990-2007 average technological progress level of equipment investment in Inner Mongolia is at least 2.5%—3.5% Second, marginal returns of equipment capital has a downward trend, that is, endogenous technological progress level of equipment capital has fallen. But, in recent years, marginal returns of equipment capital still remains above 1.32, higher than the world average of 5 percent. Therefore, equipment capital is in the past few years, and will also
be a strong driving force for economic growth in the next few years in Inner Mongolia.
Third, the potential economic growth rate which is estimated in Inner Mongolia through HP filtering still remains above10% since 1990, in particular, 15% in recent years. But, it has a downward trend since 2003.
流动资产包括哪些营养师报考条件2020最新规定As can be en from the above three points, equipment capital is in the past few years, and will also be a strong driving force for economic growth in the next few years in Inner Mongolia. But, in recent years, endogenous technological progress has started to decline, meanwhile, the potential economic growth rate has also started to decline. Therefore , we can not blindly rely on the high investment to
support high economic growth, or high growth is not sustainable. In the long run, to maintain high economic growth, increasing investment in rearch and development, that is, improving the level of exogenous technological progress is the only way.
Key words:Economic growth；Equipment capital；State-space model；HP filtering
目 录
第一章引言 (1)
1.1选题来源、背景及目的 (1)
1.2 研究意义 (3)
1.3 研究对象 (3)
1.4 研究内容及研究方法 (3)
1.4.1 研究内容 (4)
1.4.2 主要研究方法 (4)26个字母怎么学最快
感恩节英文
第二章经济增长理论综述 (5)
2.1经济增长的涵义 (5)
2.2 西方经济增长理论发展历程及其评价 (6)
2.2.1 西方经济增长理论发展历程概述 (6)
2.2.2 经济增长理论的发展过程 (7)
2.3 国内外关于中国经济增长的研究成果 (14)
第三章资本积累中的内生技术进步测度 (17)
3.1 资本积累中技术进步与资本价格变动之间的关系 (17)neitherof
3.2 资本内生技术进步路径 (17)
第四章内蒙古资本积累中的内生技术进步 (22)
4.1 设备资本的相对价格变动分析 (22)
4.2设备资本的边际收益率变动 (23)
4.2.1设备资本和建筑资本存量估算 (23)
4.2.2内生增长模型的建立 (25)
4.2.3状态空间模型估计 (26)
第五章内蒙古地区经济增长动力及其政策选择 (30)
5.1 内蒙古地区潜在经济增长率测算 (30)
5.1.1潜在产出测算方法介绍 (30)
色彩的搭配
5.1.2内蒙古潜在经济增长率估计 (32)
5.2 内蒙古地区经济增长的动力 (32)
5.2.1 经济增长的综合因素分析 (32)
5.2.2 内蒙古地区经济增长动力 (34)
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5.2.3内蒙古地区经济增长的政策选择 (34)
第六章结论与展望 (36)
6.1研究结论 (36)
the way it ends6.2研究展望 (36)
参考文献 (37)
在读期间取得的科研成果 (40)
