产品周期中的国际投资和国际贸易【外文翻译】
外文翻译
原文杰克和豆茎
tallInternational Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle Material Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, V ol. 80, No.2(may,1966)
Author: Raymond Vernon
april缩写As the demand for a product expands, a certain degree of standardization usually takes place.. This is not to say that efforts at product differentiation-come to an end. On the contrary; such efforts may even intensify, as competitors try to avoid the full brunt of price competition. Moreover, variety may appear as a result of specialization. Radios, for instance, ultimately acquired such specialized forms as clock radios, automobile radios, portable radios, and so on. Nevertheless, though the subcategories may multiply and the efforts at product differentiation increa, a growing acceptance of certain general standard
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s ems to be typical.
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肩宽的女生穿衣搭配Once again, the change has lavational implications. First of all, the need for flexibility declines. A commitment to some t of product standards opens up technical possibilities for achieving economies of scale through mass output, and encourages long-term commitments to some given process and some fixed t of facilities. Second, concern about production cost begins to take the place of concern about product characteristics. Even if incread price competition is not yet prent, the reduction of the uncertainties surrounding the operation enhances the ufulness of cost projections and increas the attention devoted to cost.
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The empirical studies to which I referred earlier suggest that, at this stage in an industry's development, there is likely to be considerable shift in the location of production facilities at least as far as internal United States locations are concerned. The empirical materials on international lavational shifts simply have not yet been analyzed sufficiently to tell us very much. A little speculation, however, indicates some hypothes worth testing.
Picture an industry engaged in the manufacture of the high income or labor-saving products that are the focus of our discussion. Assume that the industry has begun to ttle down in the United States to some degree of large-scale production. Although the first mass market may be located in the United States,grandparents
some demand for the product begins almost at once to appear elwhere. For instance, although heavy fork-lift trucks in general may have a comparatively small market in Spain becau of the relative cheapness of unskilled labor in that country, some limited demand for the product will appear there almost as soon as the existence of the product is known.
If the product has a high income elasticity of demand or if it is a satisfactory substitute for high-cost labor, the demand in time will begin to grow quite rapidly in relatively advanced countries such as tho of Western Europe. Once the market expands in such an advanced country, entrepreneurs will begin to ask themlves whether the time has come to take the risk of tting up a local producing facility.
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How long does it take to reach this stage? An adequate answer must surely be a complex
one. Producers located in the United States, weighing the wisdom of tting up a new production facility in the importing country, will feel obliged to balance a number of complex considerations. As long as the marginal production cost plus the transport cost of the goods exported from the United States is lower than the average cost of prospective production in the market of import. United States producers will presumably prefer to avoid an investment. But that calculation depends on the producer's ability to project the cost of production in a market in which factor costs and the appropriate technology differ from tho at home.
Now and again, the lavational force which determined some particular overas investment is so simple and so powerful that one has little difficulty in identifying it. Otis Elevator's early proliferation of production facilities abroad was quite patently a function of the high cost of shipping asmbled elevator cabins to distant locations and the limited scale advantages involved in manufacturing elevator cabins at a single location.'' Singer's decision to invest in Scotland as early as 1867 was also bad on considerations of a sort sympathetic with our hypothesis. It is not unlikely that the overas demand for its hi
ghly standardized product was already sufficiently large at that tinge to exhaust the obvious scale advantages of manufacturing in a single location, especially if that location was one of high labor cost.
In an area as complex and "imperfect" as international trade and investment, however, one ought not to anticipate that any hypothesis will have more than a limited explanatory power. United States airplane manufacturers surely respond to many "noneconomic" lavational forces, such as the desire to play safe in problems of military curity. Producers in the United States who have a protected patent position overas presumably take that fact into account in deciding whether or
when to produce abroad. And other producers often are motivated by considerations too complex to reconstruct readily, such as the fortuitous timing of a threat of new competition in the country of import, the level of tariff protection anticipated for the future, the political situation in the country of prospective investment and so on.
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