第14课初级商品市场外刊经贸知识选读,每课重要知识点,串讲,课文翻译
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第14课 初级商品市场
Soft Commodities非耐用商品
一、(Excerpts)（摘录）
Many prices are at historic lows， and the IMF expects further falls。Yet there are signs that the wor may be over。One key commodity, sugar， has recovered。
许多商品的价格处于历史最低点，虽然国际货币基金组织预计价格还会进一步下跌。但是，
有迹象表明,最糟的局面已经结束了.因为“糖”这种关键性商品的价格已经回升了.
Markets Have Lost Their Allure
市场已失去吸引力
For Most people involved in the production and trading of “soft” or agricultural commodities， this is proving to be a grim decade.
对于大多数生产并买卖非耐用商品或农业品的人来说，这十年无疑是阴暗的十年。
Prices are in many cas at， or near, historic lows in real terms as markets struggle to cope with floods of surplus produce.And—with most soothsayers forecasting flat， or still lower， prices-the markets themlves have lost much of their allure.
许多情况下,产品的价格都在实际意义上处于或接近历史最低价，这是因为市场要应付泛滥成灾的过剩的农产品。同时，大多数预言家预测价格将会持平，或者更低。市场自身已经失去了很多的魅力。
Speculators who profited handsomely from the price volatility of the 1970s have derted soft commodities for the newer excitement of financial futures or the curity and big yields afforded by the equity and money markets.
从20世纪70年代的价格不稳中大笔获益的投机者们已经放弃了非耐用商品而寻求金融期货或有价证券带来的新的刺激以及股票和货币市场提供的巨额利润。
The contrast with the “resources decade” of the 1970s could hardly be more marked。It is strange, indeed， to obrve that only 10 years have elapd since spiraling commodity prices were the focus of major international concern, and many respected forecasters were warning of impending global shortages of basic raw materials美国西北大学 and foodstuffs。
这和70年代的“资源十年"之间的对比是再明显不过的了.确实很奇怪，仅仅十年前,国际上关心的焦点还是不断盘旋上升的价格，许多受人尊重的预言家们一直在警告全球性的基础原材料和食品短缺即将到来。
The shortages never came， and the terms of tradenewlook have now shifted dramatically against the commodity producers.Agricultural commodities have been particularly badly hit。Last year alone， the International Monetary Fund’s indices of food prices and of agricultural raw material prices fell by 15 per cent and 12 per cent respectively。Commodity prices in general祛痘小窍门 were about 35 per cent below their 1980 average in 1985 according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD）。
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然而，短缺从未出现，现在的贸易条件已经转为对商品生产者大为不利,特别是农产品遭到了严重的打击.仅仅去年一年，国际货币基金组织的食品和农业原材料的价格指数就分别下跌了15%和12％。联合国贸易和发展会议（贸发会)的资料显示，总体上，1985年的商品价格比1980年的平均值大约低35％。
What is more, currency movements over the past year have unexpectedly made matters wor for many producers。In the first half of the 1980s， it was conventional wisdom to say that the exceptional strength of the dollar was partly responsible for—and helped to offt—the increasing weakness of dollar—denominateda pian commodity prices。All othe
r things being equal, so the argument went， a subquent fall in the dollar might be expected to give a compensating boost to dollar commodity prices.burning什么意思
而且，过去一年中的货币动态出人意料地把许多制造商的事情搞得更糟。80年代的上半期，人们普遍认为,美元的异常坚挺部分地导致了—-同时也有助于弥补——以美元标价的商品价格的日益降低。因此，又有观点说，在其他条件都不变的情况下，美元日后的下跌可能会补偿性地提高以美元标价的商品的价格。
But now the dollar has fallen， and the very rever has happened： commodity prices have continued to tumble from the peak they reached in the cond quarter of 1984.when calculated in a more reprentative basket of currencies, such as the Special Drawing Right, the fall looks even more precipitous.In May of this year, for example， the IMF’s food price index was a further 10 per cent below its level in the cond quarter of 1985。
可是现在美元已经贬值，结果恰恰相反的情况出现了：商品的价格继续从1984年第二季度所达到的高峰暴跌.如果以一个更有代表性的“一篮子”货币来计算,比如，特别提款权，这一下跌就显得更为急促。以今年五月为例，国际货币基金组织的粮食价格指数比1985年的第
二季度就又下降了10％。
icariinThere are signs that the worst of the fall may now be over； indeed, one key commodity， sugar, has rebounded impressively from the lows of last year, though even the sugar price remains below the most efficient grower’s cost of production， and its rally appears to have 英语三级词汇run out of steam.For the rest， nobody is bold enough to forecast a major improvement either this year or next。The IMF， for its part, believes that the prices of most commodities will fall substantially in 1986—with only sugar, tropical timber and hides among the softs likely to ri significantly.
有迹象表明,最严重的下跌可能已经过去了；确实，“糖"这种主要商品已经从去年的低谷中有了显著的回升。虽然它的价格仍然低于最高效的种植者的生产成本，它的跌停回升好像已经失去了动力.对于其他初级商品，没有人敢妄言在今年或明年会有大的改观。而国际货币基金组织认为，大多数的商品都会在1986年大幅下跌,非耐用商品中，只有糖、热带木材和皮革可能会有显著上升.(但是，对等贸易并不是债务国所独有的。约非说：“即使像澳大利亚、加拿大和印度尼西亚这样外汇地位强健的国家也坚持在某些领域从事对等贸易。把
进口和出口联系起来是一种对跨国公司施加权力的途径。缺乏国际营销专业知识的国家试图用对等贸易作为杠杆来推动跨国公司的内部市场网络。”）
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