Take a Lesson from the Economists
Economics（经济学）is the disma l(adj，凄凉的，忧郁的，沉闷的n，低落的情绪) science:so say the large number of people who heap（v，堆）scorn（轻蔑）on the intellectual merits（功绩，优点，是非曲直）of the discipline（n，学科，纪律，训练，处罚v，训练，训导）,Much of the criticism（批判）comes from “pure” or “proper”scientists-physicists（物理学家）,chemists and biologists.Now,economics certainly has its failings.But the general way in which economists approach and describe the world,and how they convey their message about it to others,carries lessons which pure scientists should learn from.
alright经济学是一门忧郁的科学，很多人都嘲笑这个学科获得的智力成果。这其中的很多批评都来自于所谓的纯科学学科或者合理的科学学科-物理，化学和生物。当下，经济学当然是有它的不足。但是经济学家发现和描述世界的方式，以及他们如何向别人传达与之有关的信息，其实是有很多地方值得这些纯科学家学习的。Economics has inexactitudes（不正确，不精密）and vagueness（模糊，含糊）built into it.The general lack of reliable data about past events makes virtually impossible the accurate measurement of even the most basic economic variables（n，变量）,such as the total volume（量）of output（输出，输出量）in a country,or the path of consumer spending,or inflation.
iba
经济学包含很多不精确性和含糊性。经济学一般缺少可靠的过去事件的相关数据，这导致即使是最基本的经济学变量也精确的估量出来，例如一个国家的总产出量，或者是消费者消费的路径，或者是通货膨胀。
If economists are haze（阴霾，疑惑）about what is going right now,they are even less sure about the future.Due to the general measurement difficulties,as well as unforeen events such as wars or natural disasters,economic forecasts are almost always wrong,sometimes by wide margins.As for economic theories,they change almost according to fashion,with economists allowed to move effortlessly between them,sometimes holding veral contrasting points of view at the same time.
如果经济学家对现在所发生的事情都很模糊，那么他们对未来的事情就更加不确定了。由于普遍的度量困难，以及一些不可预见的事件诸如战争和自然灾害等的发生，经济学的预测几乎通常是错的，有时有很大的回旋余地。至于经济学的理论，它们则几乎是根据时尚而改变的，经济学家可以不费力的转换观点，有时甚至可以同时持几个对立的观点。
The contrast with scientists could not be starker（=complete）.The tools of an economist’s trade are muddy data,loo theorising and a shambling（拖沓的，呆滞的）approach to causality which says that a t of interactions between A,B and C MIGHT lead to a conclusion Z( and only via（渠道，通
去美国留学推荐信要求
美国音标过，经由）a roundabout route which takes in P,Q and R as well).Scientists have a harder-edged(非常严谨的)way of looking at the world,requiring a t of rigid theories and data bad on painstaking （adj，艰苦的，小心的n，辛苦，勤勉）experimental obrvation.
the black pearl
他们与一般的科学家的对比再完整不过了。经济学家研究使用的工具是含糊的数据，不牢靠的理论和并且通过拖沓的方法得到一个因果关系，这种因果关系描述
了A、B和C间的一些列关系“可能”导致结论Z，并且仅仅通过一个迂回路线又推出了P、Q和R。科学家看世界则通过更加锋芒毕露的方式，需要一套基于艰苦的实验观察得出的严格的理论和数据。
But the economists have been able to u the vagueness with which their subject is afflicted to their advantage.（be afflicted with 使苦恼）By concentrating on broad conclusions to problems and communicating the in terms that （用某种说法来表达）can be understood by the special interest groups they are dealing with,economists have had a generally good record in assimilating themlves into positions of influence.Scientists have done rather less well by concentrating on the nature of problems rather than on the conclusions or policy prescriptions（医药处方，药方）. 但是经济学家却已经能够将含糊不清，这个使他们苦恼的学科转换成他们的优点。通过集中于问题的宽泛的结论并且用那些他们所面对的有特殊兴趣的组织可理解的术语来交流这些结论，经济学家往往能够把自己视为有影响力的群体。科学家则只是集中于自然的问题上，而在结论和政策方案上做的很少。
All this explains why,in British at least,economists as a body of people have had much more success in purely professional terms（地位，关系，领域）over the past 20 years than scientists.
这些都解释了为什么，至少在英国，经济学家是一群在过去20年里在纯专业领域里得到的成功远比科学家多的人。
圣诞节的由来 英文Take the posts in the Britain government of chief scientific advir（顾问）and chief economist.In the first position,Bill Stewart has a thin power ba,playing a marginal （边缘的，临界的，末端的）role in providing scientific advice to dozens of government departments.The cond job takes the incumbent（n，在职的，现任的，adj，现任的，依靠的）to the centre of the government’s decision-making machinery in the Treasury,and into involvement with many of the most important decisions ministers make about how Britain should operate.
就拿英国政府里的首席科学顾问和首席经济学家这两个职位来说。在第一个职位上，Bill Stewart权力基础很弱，只在为许多政府部门提供科学顾问中扮演一个不重要的角色。第二个职位则成为政府决策的重要决策者，制定财政部的机构组织，并且参与到很多首相作出的关于英国如何运作的最重要的决策中。
mpkgIn industry,top scientists working for big firms such as ICI or IBM certainly are in strong positions.But
the ability of such people to influence events is put into the shade （推进了黑暗）by the power of economists working for the big international banks and investment （投资，insurance，保险）hous in the City of London.The broad judgments of the people about global economic patterns ,transmitted by numerous direct and indirect ways,form a key（核心）component （成分，组件）of thousands of decisions made at company level at the grass roots of industry.
在工业企业中，为诸如ICI或者IBM这种大公司工作的顶级科学家当然在很重要的职位上。但是这种人影响事情的能力和那些为伦敦市的大型国际银行和投资公司的经济学家相比就显得黯然无光了。这些经济学家对于全球经济模式的宽泛判断，通过许多次直接和间接的传递就成为了还处在工业基层的公司层作出的数以千计的决定的核心组成部分。
How did economists get to be in this position-and what can scientist learn from them?Despite the difficulty in arriving at hard answers to many of the problems in
economics,people in the discipline have shown an ability to skim over the inexactitudes（不正确的，不精密的）,to come up with a general view of the world in terms that（通过某种方式表达出来）are relevant and make n to tho outside the profession.
经济学家到底是如何到达这个位置，科学家又能从他们身上学到什么呢？尽管在经济学中有很多问题
都很难得出一个答案，在这个学科上的人已经表现出一种可以略过不精确事情的能力，来提出一个关于世界的一般性观点，通过与之相关的和可以理解的外在专业表达出来。
beforeAs an example,consider a single topic of relevance to a wide body of people——the flow of capital（n，资金，首都）around the world,Finding out about where all the world’s money is going and why and how and at what rate is of obvious importance to anyone interested in investment decisions and the competitive advantages of specific nations over others.
举个例子，考虑一个与一大帮人有关的问题，世界的资金流。找到全世界的钱都到那儿了，为什么会流动，怎么流动的，以什么比率流动，这很显然对于每个对投资决策和在特定国家中的竞争优势感兴趣的人都很重要。
Every few minutes,banks and other institutions（体系）are switching hundreds of millions of dollars from country to country in a pattern that is far from clear.（一点也不清楚）The goal on each transaction is to move money into a region where the returns are higher and so chalk up（记下，取得，归咎于）a profit,Working out what is going on in this vast exerci,and the important influences that are at play,is vital to understanding a host of （许多，一大群）issues involving the buildup（组成）of wealth in the modern world.
没几分钟，银行和其他机构都在国家和国家之间用一种一点也不清楚的方式周转着数百万美元的资金。每一笔资金的周转目的都是将钱从一个国家转移到一个回报更高的国家来以此获得利润。解决这个巨额的行为中正在发生着什么，以及其产生的重大影响，对理解涉及到当今世界财富的组成的一系列问题至关重要。The ”pure science” way of approaching this problem would be to attempt to collect data from al the banks and regulatory（管理的，控制的，调整的）authorities （官方，当局）participating in money transfer,and thence gain a sum of all the capital flows-from which appropriate conclusions could be drawn.The economist would recogni that the task of measuring and collecting the data is well high impossible.
解决这个问题的纯科学的手段应该是尝试着从所以银行和参与到资金转移的管理当局收集数据，并因此得出一个资金流量的总值，再根据这个可以得到一个适当的结论。经济学家会意识到这个测量和手机数据的任务几乎是不可能完成的。Using the fairly paltry（adj，不足的，无价值的，琐碎的，卑鄙的）statistics that are available,and some judicious（明智的，头脑精明的）averaging out and guesswork,the economist would gain a rough idea about the shape of the world’s money flow.From this would flow a convincing argument about the policy dimension to the problem-such as how the balance of interest rates between veral countries made a specific cour of action,as related to funds transfer,either less or more appropriate-in a relevant way.The scientific way is to throw everythi
ng at the problem and be less concerned at the prescription（药方，指示，惯例）that follows;with the economist the balance is the other way round.system是什么意思
通过运用一些可以获取的相当没有价值的数据，加上一些精明的计算平均值和猜测，经济学家就可以对世界资金流动的情况得到一个粗略的想法。依此他们就可以对一些问题的政策维度进行非常令人信服的论证，例如几个国家之间的利率平衡是怎么导致特定的资金流动的，至于基金的流动，在相关的程度上，是多还是少比较合适。科学的研究方法是将所有的事情归咎于问题，而对之后的解决方法并不那么关心，经济学家则是倒过来达到这种平衡的。
What can pure scientists gain from this study of the “dismal science”?When necessary,they should reject exact approach,take a broader view,study conclusions and how to implement（v，实施，执行n，工具，器具，手段）them and above all learn better communications skills.There are some signs of such things happening.There is a general move in certain ctions of academia（学术界）and industry towards the concept of the multidisciplinary（有关各种学问的）scientist,one who can take in to a world view bits of physics,chemistry and biology as well as general knowledge about business,marketing and finance.reference
纯科学家可以从这种“郁闷的科学”中学到什么呢？在必要的时候，他们应该拒绝精准的研究方法，用
更宽阔的视角，研究结论以及如何实施他们，最重要的是要学习提高沟通技巧。这种事情发生已经显现出征兆。特定的学术和工业领域现在大体都在朝着多学科科学家的概念发展，这种人可以从一个世界的视角出发融入一定的物理、化学和生物，同时也对上午、市场营销和财务有一定的了解。Even at a basic single-discipline scientific level,more efforts are being made to consider problems as part of a multi-faceted （多方面的，多才多艺的）general inquiry（v探究，调查）-in risk analysis,for example,where it is acceptable to state that there is a certain chance that something might happen,rather than will happen.Perhaps,in theme,academic （学术的，理论的，学院的）establishments（确定，制定）will start to offer degree cours（学位课程）in general science combined with economics;such cours at the moment are thin on the ground（在当场）.
即使是最基本的单学科科学层次，更多的努力正考虑将问题作为多方面普遍调查研究的一部分，如风险分析，如何表述更能让人接受，某一件事情可能发生的几率。也许，在主题上，教育机构会开始提供综合科学的学位，与经济学等目前还很薄弱的学科结合起来。
