Part Three
Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979 - 1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic conquences now to be less vere than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less nsitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conrvation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-int
ensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones u far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP （in constant prices）rich economies now u nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increa the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25% - 0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more riously squeezed.
One more reason not to lo sleep over the ri in oil prices is that, unlike the ris in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
11. The main reason for the latest ri of oil price is ________.
[A] global inflation. [B] reduction in supply.
[C] fast growth in economy. [D] Iraq's suspension of exports.
12. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ______.
[A] price of crude ris. [B] commodity prices ri.
四六级打印准考证打印 [C] consumption ris. [D] oil taxes ri.
13. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
[C] manufacturing industry has been riously squeezed.
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
14. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now.
smokingisharmful
剑五 [B] inflation ems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.
[C] energy conrvation can keep down the oil prices.
[D] the price ri of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
15. From the text we can e that the writer ems ________.
[A] optimistic. [B] nsitive. [C] gloomy [D] scared.
Unit 9 （2002） Part 3
重点词汇：
1. decline（n.v.下降；衰落v.谢绝）←de向下+cline倾斜；同根词：incline（v.倾斜；倾向于n.斜坡）←in（=to）+cline。People decline invitations when they are "indispod" physically, and I wish they would do likewi when they fell indispod emotionally.⼈们在⾝体“不适”时谢绝邀请，我希望他们在觉得情绪上不适时也能同样做。We perceive when love begins and when it declines by our embarrassment when alone together.我们由仅余两⼈时的局促不安察觉爱情于何时发⽣，何时减退。
2. OPEC（⽯油输出国组织）即Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries。
3. scary（引起惊慌的）即scar（e）+y，scare（n.v.惊恐），-y形容词后缀。More powerful creation may scare many people away, but more intrepid people will be captivated by it.更加强有⼒的作品可能吓退许多⼈，但⽐较勇敢的⼈们会被它吸引住。
4. quadruple （四倍的；使成四倍；四倍）即quadru+ple，quadru-前缀“四”（=quarter），ple词根“折叠”，complicated所含的词根plic也是“折叠”的意思（参2002年Text 2）。
5. triple （三倍的；使成三倍；三倍）即tri+ple，tri-前缀“三”，如triangle（三⾓形）←tri+angle⾓。
6. inflation（膨胀；通货膨胀；⾃夸）即in+flat+ion，in-（=into），flat词根“吹”，-ion名词后缀，故“往⾥⾯吹”→膨胀。Inflation: When nobody has enough money becau everybody has too much.通货膨胀：由于⼈⼈钱太多⽽谁的钱都不够的时候。inflation — the period when the standard of living continues to ri until the people can't afford it 通货膨胀——⽣活⽔平持续上升直到⼈们负担不起的时期。
7. gloom （v.n.阴暗；忧愁），形容词为gloomy （阴暗的；阴沉的），那⾸据说有杀⼈魔⼒的歌曲就叫Gloomy Sunday。Love is the flame of life, without it, everything in life becomes gloomy.爱是⽣命的⽕焰，没有它，⽣命中的⼀切都变得暗淡⽆光。
8. doom（n.厄运v.注定）。
9. suspend （v.悬挂；延缓）即sus+pend，sus-前缀“在下⾯”，pend词根“挂”，故“暂且挂在下⾯不管”→搁置；名词形式为suspension←sus+pens挂+ion。The best of men cannot suspend their fate.的⼈也⽆法推迟死亡。
duron10. conquence （后果；重要性）←con+qu（=follow）+ence。conrvation? （保护；保存；守恒）即
con+rv（e）+ation，con-前缀“全部”，rve词根“保持”（=keep），-ation名词后缀；动词为conrve←con+rve。A state without the means of some change is without the means of its conrvation.不具备某种变⾰⼿段的国家也不具备保存⾃⼰的⼿段。
11. energy-intensive 能源密集型。
12. consumption（消费量，消耗）即consum（e）+ption，consume（v.消费，消耗），-ption名词后缀，m后加p便于发⾳，如assume（假定；承担；呈现）→assumption、presume（v.假设）→presumption。Conspicuous consumption of valuable goods is a means of reputability to the gentleman of leisure.引⼈注⽬地挥霍贵重财物是有闲绅⼠取得名声的⼿段。
13. consultancy（顾问⼯作；咨询业）←consult+ancy名词后缀；consult（v.商量；查询；会诊）←⽐consul（领事）在最后多字母t，
14. GDP（国民⽣产总值）即Gross Domestic Product。
15. OECD（经济合作与发展组织）即Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development。
16. estimate（v.n.估计，估价）。True modesty does not consist in an ignorance of our merits, but in a due estimate of it.真正的谦虚不在于对⾃⼰的长处⼀⽆所知，⽽在于对它们的恰当评价。
17. excess（.过量a.额外的）即ex+cess，ex-前缀“出”，cess词根“⾛”，故“⾛到范围之外的”→过量的；动词形式为
exceed（超过）←ex+ceed⾛。The best things carried to excess are wrong.的东西超过限度也会变坏。He is poor who expens exceed his income.开⽀超过收⼊的⼈就是穷⼈。
18. sizable（相当⼤的）←siz（e）+able；size（⼤⼩，尺⼨）。You can tell the size of a man by the size of the things that make him mad.根据使⼀个⼈发怒的事情的⼤⼩，可以判断这个⼈的⽓量。
19. significant （有意义的；重要的）即signify（y变形为i）表⽰+cant形容词后缀，“值得表⽰的”→有意义的；signify即sign+ify，sign标记，-ify动词后缀，“作标记”→表⽰。
atomic kitten
难句解析：
① Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time.
该句是⼀个含有插⼊成分的单句。主语是Strengthening economic growth，谓语是could push，插⼊成分是⼀个时间状语。
本句阅读的重点是要⾸先抓住主句的基本结构。
武汉北大青鸟怎么样
②In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
该句是⼀个复杂句，由两个单句构成，中间⽤so来表⽰前后的因果关系。
本句阅读的重点是⼀些短语和词组。account for占…的部分；muted原意是“沉默的，被弄哑的”，在⽂章⾥的意思是“不太显著的”；pump price油品零售价格。
③Energy conrvation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.
该句是⼀个简单句，只是主语复杂⼀点，其谓语部分是have reduced oil consumption
本句阅读的重点在主语，注意它⾥⾯有三个并列成分：Energy conrvation，a shift to other fuels，第三个是a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries。
④The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increa the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.
本句的主句是The that，本句复杂的地⽅在其宾语部分，⾥⾯有⼀个条件状语if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998，⽽主句是后⾯的部分，其中的主语this指代的是if条件句。
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本句阅读的重点在于抓住句⼦的主⼲。
⑤One more reason not to lo sleep over the ri in oil prices is that, unlike the ris in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
其实英文
本句的主句是One more reason 。⽐较复杂的是其以that引导的表语从句，它的主语是it，指
代的是the ri in oil prices。
本句阅读的重点在于了解⼀些短语的意思：lo sleep over因…⽽失眠；occur against the 发⽣在…的背景之下
试题解析：
11. 【正确答案】[B]
本题的答题依据是第⼀段的第⼆句话，“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了这句话，这道题就很容易了。
12. 【正确答案】[D]
本题的关键信息在第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.”意思是说：在欧洲，汽油的零售价中税占到五分之四，因此税的增加会导致汽油价格的（成⽐例）猛涨，⽽原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很⼤。
13. 【正确答案】 [D]
航空学校分数线
本题的答题依据是第四段中的下⾯这句话“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increa the oil import bill in rich economies by only
0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”这是⼀道⽐较容易的题。
14. 【正确答案】 [A]
本题的答题依据是全⽂的最后⼀段，强调这次油价上涨与20世纪70年代的上涨不同，也就是没有70年代的那⼀次那么可怕。
15. 【正确答案】[A]
本题是⼀道⽐较容易的题。答题依据贯穿全⽂，尤其是第三段和最后⼀段的第⼀句话，强调⼈们不必担⼼此次油价上涨，因为这⼀次的情况与20世纪70年代不同。
全⽂翻译：
过去经济衰落的⽇⼦会不会重来？⾃从⽯油输出国组织在3⽉决定减少原油供应，原油的价格便从去年12⽉的不到10美元⼀桶上升到约26美元⼀桶。这次近3倍的涨价令⼈想起了1973年和1979～1980
年两次可怕的⽯油恐慌，当时的油价分别涨了4倍和近3倍。前两次的油价暴涨都导致了两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。那么这次警告⼈们厄运来临的头版新闻都到哪⾥去了呢？
本周伊拉克暂停⽯油出⼝，这使油价⼜⼀次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头，随着北半球冬季的到来，有可能在短期内使⽯油价格涨得更⾼。
然⽽，我们有充分的理由预期这次油价暴涨给经济带来的影响不会像20世纪70年代那么严重。与70年代相⽐，现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要⼩很多。在欧洲，税⾦在汽油零售价的⽐例⾼达4/5，因此，即使原油价格发⽣很⼤的波动，汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显著。
发达国家对⽯油的依赖性也不如从前，因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感。能源储备、燃料替代以及能源密集型重⼯业的重要性的降低，都减少了⽯油消耗量。软件、咨询及移动通讯消耗的⽯油，⽐钢铁、汽车⾏业少得多。发达国家国民⽣产总值中每⼀个美元所消耗的⽯油量⽐1973年少了近⼀半。国际经合组织在最近⼀期的《经济展望》中估计，如果油价持续⼀年维持在22美元左右，与1998年的13美元⼀桶相⽐，这也只会使发达国家的⽯油进⼝在⽀出上增加GDP的0.25％～0.5％。这还不到1974年或1980年收⼊减少部分的1/4。另⼀⽅⾯，进⼝⽯油的新兴国家由于转向了重⼯业，消耗能量更⼤，因此可能会受到⽯油危机的强烈影响。
另外⼀个不应因油价上升⽽失眠的原因是，与20世纪70年代不同，这次油价上升不是发⽣在普遍的
物价暴涨及全球需求过旺背景之下。世界上很多地区才刚刚⾛出经济衰落。《经济学家》的商品价格指数与⼀年前相⽐总的来说也没有什么变化。1973年的商品价格跃升了70％，⽽1979年也上升了近30％。heracles sk
