Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Beef and Pork Disappearance Expected To Decrea Between 2019 and 2020; Poultry Likely To Increa
Red meat and poultry disappearance is calculated as the volume of meat and poultry production that remains for domestic u after subtracting net trade and changes in cold storage volumes. Dividing this residual by the U.S. population yields the per capita quantity for u in the domestic market. Although per capita disappearance factors in both imports and exports, it is largely a supply statistic. It does not take account of waste or nonfood us of meat products. It imparts no information about prices, tastes and preferences, and other demand factors that ultimately determine how much red meat and poultry individual consumers will choo to buy and consume.
The figure below shows expected retail weight per capita disappearance for beef, pork, broilers, and turkey for 2020, and disappearance for 2019. The are the largest-volume meats produced in the United States. Beef disappearance is likely to decline this year by about 1 percent. Pork is also forecast to decrea, albeit just slightly: about 0.3 percent. Broiler disappearance is expected to increa
3 percent this year compared to 2019. Turkey disappearance is also expected to increa about 1 percent.
Beef/Cattle: The first-quarter production forecast was raid on a faster pace than a year ago of cattle slaughter along with heavier dresd weights. However, production for the remainder of the ye
清澄的意思ar is reduced on lower expected fed cattle slaughter that is partially offt by higher nonfed cattle slaughter, as well as by heavier dresd weights. Slower beef demand and potentially slower rates of slaughter are expected to pressure cattle prices. February’s beef imports ro to 230.6 million pounds, and the first-quarter forecast was raid by 25 million pounds bad on the pace of shipments from Oceania. U.S. beef exports in February were up 21 percent from a year earlier. However, forecasts for the cond, third, and fourth quarters were revid down, partly due to the potential global economic downturn driven by the pandemic.
Dairy: Wholesale dairy product prices and milk price forecasts have been lowered substantially from last month’s forecasts. The all-milk price forecast is $14.35 per hundredweight, a reduction of $3.90 from the previous forecast. Demand for dairy products is expected to be much lower due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Export forecasts have been lowered bad on lower expectations for global demand. Pork/Hogs: Information reported in the March 2020 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report suggests diminishing hog production growth toward the end of 2020. It is likely also that pork production growth will slow as processors adjust to disruptions in slaughter schedules due to labor force abnces caud by the COVID-19 virus. 2020 growth in U.S. pork exports is also likely to slow due to peso depreciation and demand uncertainties generated by the virus. Even so, U.S. pork exports are expected to increa more than 18 percent this year compared with exports in 2019.
Poultry/Eggs: The 2020 broiler production forecast was decread on expectations for decread demand from food rvice and foreign markets, while the price forecast was revid down on recent price movements and weakening demand. The 2020 export forecast was decread on expectations for weakening economic conditions in global markets. The table egg production forecast was revid down on expectations for a smaller layer flock, while the 2020 price forecast was incread on expectations for strong demand and tightening supplies. The first-quarter egg export forecast was incread on strong export demand, while the cond- and third-quarter forecasts were decread on expectations for slowing exports due to higher egg prices and a strong dollar. The 2020 turkey production forecast was decread on lower-than-expected average weights. Wholesale turkey prices for the remainder of 2020 were revid up on expectations for strengthening demand. Turkey exports for 2020 were revid down after lower-than-expected exports in January and February and expectations for weakening demand from Mexico.
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Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-310, April 15, 2020
Beef/Cattle
Rusll Knight and Christopher Davis
COVID-19 and Economic Uncertainty Impacting Beef Industry
The spread of COVID-19 has caud shifts in the beef demand structure; coupled with global economic uncertainty, it is affecting the entire beef supply chain. Conquently, the beef production forecast for 2020 was lowered by 255 million pounds from last month’s forecast to 27.4 billion pounds. However, production is expected to remain above last year’s by about 1 percent. Expected steer and heifer slaughter is reduced from last month. However, it is partially offt by higher expected dresd weights and higher nonfed cattle slaughter.
2020年12月四级啥时间出成绩In the first 2 months of the year, the pace of cattle slaughter was almost 4 percent faster than the same period last year, a pace that appears to have continued to climb through March. Also, bad on the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service weekly slaughter report for the weeks ending March 28, 2020, steer and heifer average cattle carcass weights are up 27 pounds from year-earlier levels. This reprents an increa of about 4 percent and reflects a mild winter compared to last year. With a faster pace of slaughter, combined with dresd weights at levels not en since 2016, first-quarter 2020 is expected to be 8 percent above last year and to t a record for the quarter.
One impact of COVID-19 on beef demand has been a shift in the types of demand. To the extent that the food rvice and hotel ctor has been affected by restaurant closures or rvice limitations and the decline in travel, demand from that ctor has declined. However, retail demand has incread as people have been told to remain at home. The impact has been felt in both the quantities and cuts of beef demanded. Concurrently, the slaughter ctor itlf has been faced with challenges as it adjusts to the impacts of COVID-19 on its day-to-day operations.
Second-quarter production forecast was reduced, but remains up by 1 percent from 2019. This reduction is bad on an expected slower pace of fed cattle slaughter, in part as the slaughter ctor responds to the impacts of COVID-19. Feedlots may also slow the pace of marketings in the short term as they are less willing to accept low prices currently offered. This reduction in the slaughter pace forecast was partially offt by higher anticipated dresd weights as cattle remain on feed longer. Beef production in the third and fourth quarters was reduced on the expectation that feedlot operators will place fewer steers and heifers in feedlots in the first half of the year as they face lower returns and economic uncertainty. With lower expected placements in the first half of 2020, expected fed cattle slaughter in cond half of 2020 is also forecast lower. However, incread nonfed cattle slaughter and higher average dresd weights will partly offt the reduction in fed cattle.
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Weaker Beef Demand and Slaughter Reduction To Pressure Prices
Customer demand in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional rvice (HRI) ctor has diminished since stay-at-home orders were put in place across much of the United States. With higher sales at the retail level in March reflecting consumers “stocking up” and retailers refilling depleted coolers, sales are expected to slow down as the demands are satiated. Currently, overall slaughter rates have been
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Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-310, April 15, 2020
affected as packing plants adjust to the impacts of COVID-19 on their operations. Slower demand and potentially slower rates of slaughter are expected to pressure cattle prices. However, prices are expected to improve through the rest of the year but remain well below year-ago levels.
The first-quarter 2020 average fed steer price for the 5-area marketing region is estimated at $118.32 per hundredweight (cwt), down about 6 percent from last year. Weekly fed steer prices for the 5-area marketing region have declined since the beginning of the year, moving counterasonall
y to a quarter low of $108.84 per cwt for the week ending March 15, then rebounding briefly.
In early cond quarter, fed cattle prices declined further to $105 per cwt and will reflect asonally increasing supplies of market-ready cattle in feedlots at heavier than year-ago weights at a time the beet packing ctor is adjusting to the impacts of COVID-19. Bad on weaker expected beef demand and a slower anticipated pace of cattle slaughter, the 2020 annual price forecast was lowered by $3 to $111 per cwt.
As fed cattle prices fall and feedlot margins decline, feedlot operations will likely reduce placements and reduce bids for feeder calves. Relatively good pasture conditions might allow producers to keep cattle on grass and other pasture until prices begin to recover. To that end, the calves will likely be placed in feedlots at heavier weights, and expected average slaughter weights will be higher. Recent price data and expectations of weaker feedlot demand underpins a decrea in this year’s expected feeder calf prices. This month’s annual price forecast for 2020 was lowered by $10 to $132 per cwt. Beef Imports Up in February
February’s beef imports ro to 230.6 million pounds, 7.1 percent above a year ago. The bulk of the increa from last year is in shipments from Australia. T he higher year-over-year imports from Austr
alia, Nicaragua, Mexico, and New Zealand more than offt declines in beef imports from other sources in February 2020. Year over year, over 16 million pounds more beef was imported from Australia this February, exceeding beef imports last year by 53 percent. Beef imports from other major sources such as Nicaragua, Mexico, and New Zealand were also up year over year by 2.5, 2.3, and 0.61 million pounds, respectively (e table below). However, there were also some reductions in shipments to the United States. While Canada was the largest beef supplier to the United States at 57 million pounds, it also had the largest reduction in beef shipments to the United States in February 2020, over 7 million pounds less than a year earlier. U.S. beef imports were also down from Brazil by 1.8 million pounds and from Uruguay by 1.3 million pounds.
我对你有一点动心Bad on the pace of shipments from Oceania, higher U.S. beef imports are anticipated in the first quarter. The 2020 first-quarter forecast was raid by 25 million pounds from 720 million to 745 million pounds.
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尝试的意思
日常交际英语口语Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-310, April 15, 2020
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Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-310, April 15, 2020
U.S. year-over-year beef imports from major suppliers February 2019 February 2020 Difference in volume
Year-over-Year change Australia
30.1 ------- Million pounds --------
46.0 15.9 --- Percent -- 1.53 Canada
64.2 57.2 -7.10.89 New Zealand
36.6 37.2 0.6 1.02 Mexico
46.5 48.7 2.3 1.05 Brazil
10.3 8.5 -1.80.83 Uruguay
电子信息工程专业就业方向8.7 7.4 -1.30.85 Nicaragua 14.8 17.3 2.5 1.17
Beef Exports Down on Global Demand
U.S. beef exports were reported at 257.0 million pounds, up 21 percent in February 2020. Exports to the ven largest trading partners for exported U.S. beef are summarized in the table below. Bolstered by robust shipments to Japan and South Korea, U.S beef exports in February were a record high for the month. Exports to Japan and South Korea accounted for over half of U.S. total beef exports in February 2020. Beef exports to Canada, Taiwan, and Vietnam were also noticeably higher and contributed to the overall year-over-year U.S. growth.
Converly, there were a few major markets in which less beef was exported in February 2020 than in the previous February. Exports to Hong Kong in February were 26 percent less than a year ago, the lowest beef export to Hong Kong since 2012. Exports to Mexico were 8 percent lower than last year. Weakness in the Mexican economy and the peso likely limited Mexico’s imports.
The 2020 beef export forecast for the first quarter was unchanged at 735 million pounds. However, the forecasts for cond, third, and fourth quarters were revid down to 780 (-35 million pounds), 830 (-20 million pounds), and 815 (-50 million pounds), respectively. The forecast for beef exports was lowered partly due to global economic weakness and the relative strength in the U.S dollar.
Source: USDA, Economic Rearch Service calculations using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-310, April 15, 2020
U.S. year-over-year beef exports to major destinations February 2019 February 2020 Difference in volume
Year-over-Year change Japan
shutout56.9 ------- Million pounds --------
75.1 18.2 --- Percent -- 1.32 Mexico
37.0 34.0 -3.10.92 South Korea
45.8 62.6 16.8 1.37 Canada
beyond什么意思18.8 23.6 4.9 1.26 Hong Kong
14.8 11.0 -3.80.74 Taiwan
12.9 14.9 2.0 1.16 Vietnam 1.9 3.1 1.1 1.58 Source: USDA, Economic Rearch Service calculations using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
